Chantilly 2 Plan · Manvel, TX 77583

$315,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,866 sqft · SingleFamily · 37 Days on market

Excellent condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• 1% rule +1.7/10.0
• DSCR +0.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Two-story | 1,866 Sq. Ft. | 3 Bedrooms | 2.5 Baths | Flex Room | Covered Patio | 2-Car Garage

Key facts

• Covered patio
• Flex room
• 2 parking spots

Tags

• FLEX ROOM
• COVERED PATIO

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $315,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 parking spaces
• Home design: Single-family plan home; New construction (Plan)
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1866

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms, 1 half bathroom
• Interior features: Open living area (plan); Plan: Chantilly 2

🏗️ New construction. The $315,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $416,039.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $316k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-685 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $277k (12.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $277k (12.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 2.2% in Manvel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#544 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Alvin ISD (suburban): math 39% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #255 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1147 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 3,960 units permitted in Brazoria County in 2024 (593 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $12k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brazoria County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($307k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $277,242 (12.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.67% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.32%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.06%
• DSCR: 0.69
• GRM: 12.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $416,039
• List price: $315,990
• Delta: -24.05%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5306 Majestic Ct	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,984 (+6%)	2mo	$449,900	$227	85
10003 Agave Point Ct	0.37mi	3/2.5	1,838 (-2%)	1mo	$320,000	$174	80
10110 Palm Springs Pl	0.41mi	3/2.5	1,901 (+2%)	1mo	$339,000	$178	77
10014 Agave Point Ct	0.39mi	3/2.5	1,910 (+2%)	2mo	$340,000	$178	77
5243 Palo Verde Dr	0.35mi	3/2.5	1,714 (-8%)	1mo	$319,990	$187	69
5114 Getty Ln	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,917 (+3%)	1mo	$373,214	$195	67
10010 Napier Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,941 (+4%)	1mo	$322,999	$166	66
5247 Palo Verde Dr	0.35mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,046 (+10%)	2mo	$345,990	$169	61
5619 Bobwhite Trl	0.39mi	3/2.0	2,099 (+12%)	2mo	$474,900	$226	57
5030 Morrison Dr	0.46mi	4/3.0 (+1)	2,085 (+12%)	2mo	$389,990	$187	51
5115 Getty Ln	0.58mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,080 (+12%)	1mo	$375,000	$180	48
5219 Getty Ln	0.54mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,129 (+14%)	1mo	$379,000	$178	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.44% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.01×
• Total profit: $-117,962
• Equity at exit: $62,033

10-year hold

• IRR: -52.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.60×
• Total profit: $-185,868
• Equity at exit: $35,971

Cash invested: $116,491 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77583

• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 1147
• Price-to-rent: 9.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,772 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,182
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$520 /mo · $6,241/yr
• Insurance: −$173
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$582
• Net cashflow: $-685

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,639

Max offer price $316,927

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-397	-5% $-541	+0% $-685	+5% $-829	+10% $-972
Rent	-10% $-904	-5% $-794	+0% $-685	+5% $-575	+10% $-466
Rate	-1.0pp $-475	-0.5pp $-579	base $-685	+0.5pp $-793	+1.0pp $-902

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $104,010
• Closing costs: $12,481
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9510 Turnstone Dr Arcola, TX	2.0	2.0	1892	$2,495	$1.32	0d	1	0.33mi
5714 Caracara St Arcola, TX	3.0	2.0	2518	$2,750	$1.09	4d	1	0.35mi
9623 Wright Dr Manvel, TX	4.0	3.0	2548	$3,600	$1.41	25d	1	0.44mi
4143 Champlain Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	3.0	1839	$2,400	$1.31	45d	1	1.38mi
10327 Armstrong Dr Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.0	1956	$2,291	$1.17	45d	1	1.42mi
4018 Champlain Way Rosharon, TX	3.0	2.5	1897	$1,500	$0.79	8d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $315,990 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $315,990 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $315,990 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $315,990 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $315,990 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,990 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $315,990 Active 28 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $315,990 Active 25 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $315,990 Active 24 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $315,990 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $315,990 Active 20 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $315,990 Active 19 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $315,990 Active 18 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $315,990 Active 17 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $315,990 Active 16 DOM
16. 2026-05-15
    listed $315,990 Active 93-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,269
• − Mortgage interest: −$23,305
• − Property taxes: −$6,241
• − Insurance: −$2,080
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,662
• − Management: −$2,662
• − Depreciation: −$12,103
• Taxable loss: −$15,782
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,788
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,432/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It is move-in ready and would benefit from minor updates to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers
• Both Lighting — Improved lighting can make the home more inviting and safer

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping — Enhances curb appeal and can attract more potential buyers ↑
• Both Lighting — Improved lighting can make the home more inviting and safer ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alvin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4808090
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $66,740
• Composite: 38.96/100
• National rank: #4080
• State rank: #255 of 826 in TX

Livability — Manvel

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #544
• US rank: #10576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Manvel, TX
• County: Brazoria County · 374,982 people
• City population: 30,210
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 52,747
• Household income: $119,287
• Rent vs Own: 9.8% rent · 90.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Brazoria County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 420,414 people
• By 2030: 457,585 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 532,232 · +26.6%
• By 2050: 605,399 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 779,358 · +85.4%
• By 2100: 883,759 · +110.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 38% Black 34% White 20% Two or more races 18% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 64% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Asian/Pacific 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brazoria

• 2024 margin: R (+19.7) · D 39.5% · R 59.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.9pp toward D · 2008: -29.6pp · 2024: -19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.7 2020: R+18.2 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+34.2 2008: R+29.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.19%
• Current HPI: 198.6559
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.44%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B