6945 SW 21st Ln · Gainesville, FL 32607

$127,660

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 918 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 377 Days on market

Built 1984 3,049 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.0/30.0
• DSCR +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. Welcome to this hidden gem tucked away in one of Gainesville's most conveniently located communities. This charming half-duplex home offers the perfect mix of comfort, character, and convenience. Step inside to find a spacious layout filled with natural light, where every room invites you to relax and feel right at home. The home includes an 8x12 sun room with french doors, vaulted ceilings in living room, new paint on the interior and exterior, and a newer HVAC and water heater. The back yard is also fully fenced in and backs up to a retention pond so there's no neighbors behind you. The Seller has additional updates in progress. A full list can prov

Key facts

• End unit
• Natural light
• Tower oaks manor

Tags

• TOWER OAKS MANOR
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• NATURAL LIGHT
• THOUGHTFULLY DESIGNED KITCHEN
• PEACEFUL NEIGHBORHOOD
• END UNIT

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: No lease restrictions; Zoned PD
• HOA & community: No community features; Development: Tower Oaks

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Off-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Cable available; Water connected
• Home design: Residential half-duplex; One-story; North-facing
• Construction: Concrete, stucco and wood siding construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built area about 918 (public records)
• Exterior features: Storage shed; Concrete and paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Convection oven; Cooktop; Range; Range hood; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Living room/dining room combo; Open floorplan; Solid wood cabinets; Thermostat; Window treatments
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry room with washer and electric dryer hookups

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $128k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $279 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $128k).
• Recommended offer: $112k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#97 in FL, #1,480 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F.
• Alachua (urban): math 49% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #30 of 73 in FL (top 41%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 245 active listings in the ZIP; 1,774 units permitted in Alachua County in 2024 (984 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($46k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $883 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Alachua County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 377 days — a 12% lower offer ($112k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $18k; list at $128k implies a 601% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,340 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 377 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 9.37%
• DSCR: 1.42
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.6% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-6,434
• Equity at exit: $19,035

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $3,515
• Equity at exit: $11,038

Cash invested: $35,745 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32607

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 245
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,512 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$669
• Tax from tax record: −$193 /mo · $2,313/yr
• Insurance: −$53
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$318
• Net cashflow: $279

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,159

Max offer price $127,660

Occupancy floor 77%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,915
• Closing costs: $3,830
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-01
   status Pending
2. 2026-02-07
   price $127,660
3. 2025-11-03
   price $134,382
4. 2025-08-03
   price $141,455
5. 2025-04-19
   listed $148,900 Active
6. 1987-12-01
   soldstatus $18,200
7. 1983-12-01
   soldstatus $7,200
8. 1983-11-01
   soldstatus $14,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,313 · $193/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,313 · $193/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,144
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,151
• − Property taxes: −$2,313
• − Insurance: −$638
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,452
• − Management: −$1,452
• − Depreciation: −$3,714
• Taxable income: $1,425
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$342
• After-tax cash flow: $3,007/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alachua
• NCES district ID: 1200030
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,683
• Composite: 43.31/100
• National rank: #3038
• State rank: #30 of 73 in FL

Livability — Gainesville

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #97
• US rank: #1480

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Alachua County · 218,005 people
• City population: 188,348
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 35,720
• Household income: $45,987
• Rent vs Own: 66.0% rent · 34.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 3418.0

Population outlook (Alachua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 289,834 people
• By 2030: 305,873 · +5.5%
• By 2040: 335,246 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 364,719 · +25.8%
• By 2075: 436,665 · +50.7%
• By 2100: 482,920 · +66.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Black 22% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 11% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Jamaica, China
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 12% Other Indo-European 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Alachua

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+21.0) · D 59.7% · R 38.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -0.6pp no change · 2008: 21.6pp · 2024: 21.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+21.0 2020: D+27.2 2016: D+22.5 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+21.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -177.86%
• Current HPI: 270.183
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.60%
• Metro: Gainesville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+792.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-01 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-07 Price Changed $127,660 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-03 Price Changed $134,382 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-03 Price Changed $141,455 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-19 Listed $148,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1987-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $18,200 Public Records
• 1983-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $7,200 Public Records
• 1983-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $14,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+23.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,313 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.