137 Springvalley Cir · Stockbridge, GA 30281

$188,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,320 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 86 Days on market

Built 1983 0.46 ac lot $143/sqft · 23% below area Est $244k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch built in 1983, featuring a spacious open living area with a cozy fireplace, attached one-car garage, and a screened porch perfect for relaxing. Situated on nearly half an acre in a quiet Stockbridge neighborhood, this home offers convenient access to schools, shopping, dining, and major highways. A great opportunity for homeowners or investors looking for space, comfort, and long-term potential

Key facts

• Convenient access
• Open living area
• Screened porch

Tags

• OPEN LIVING AREA
• COZY FIREPLACE
• SCREENED PORCH
• QUIET NEIGHBORHOOD
• CONVENIENT ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $65 ($775/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (2.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 4.3% in Stockbridge — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#389 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Henry County (rural): math 24% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #89 of 174 in GA (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 586 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 1,989 units permitted in Henry County in 2024 (92 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Henry County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 86 days — a 6% lower offer ($178k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $40k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,566 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 86 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.46%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,829
• List price: $188,900
• Delta: -22.53%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
349 Mays Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0	1,369 (+4%)	12mo	$230,000	$168	64
245 Amanda Ct	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,356 (+3%)	2mo	$245,000	$181	63
185 Amanda Ct	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,311 (-1%)	23mo	$205,000	$156	46
195 Amanda Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0	1,260 (-4%)	23mo	$230,000	$183	41
172 Edison Dr	0.59mi	3/2.0	1,503 (+14%)	20mo	$290,900	$194	33
116 Susan Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,476 (+12%)	21mo	$190,000	$129	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.87% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-30,282
• Equity at exit: $28,166

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-35,943
• Equity at exit: $16,333

Cash invested: $52,892 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30281

• Home prices YoY: -33.6%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 586
• Price-to-rent: 8.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,841 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$321 /mo · $3,849/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $65

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,760

Max offer price $188,900

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,225
• Closing costs: $5,667
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
141 Edison Dr Stockbridge, GA	3.0	2.5	1621	$1,701	$1.05	43d	1	0.74mi
217 Briarpatch Ct Stockbridge, GA	3.0	2.0	1228	$1,995	$1.62	43d	1	0.92mi
1515 Flat Rock Rd Stockbridge, GA	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,536	$0.90	5d	1	0.93mi
245 Pinehurst Dr Stockbridge, GA	3.0	2.0	1340	$1,706	$1.27	43d	1	1.06mi
70 Summerfield Ct Stockbridge, GA	3.0	2.0	1444	$1,795	$1.24	43d	1	1.13mi
200 Pinehurst Dr Stockbridge, GA	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,595	$1.33	11d	1	1.14mi
479 Lakeshore Dr Stockbridge, GA	3.0	2.0	1281	$1,750	$1.37	5d	1	1.30mi
125 Cowan Dr Stockbridge, GA	3.0	2.0	1710	$1,920	$1.12	15d	1	1.31mi

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $188,900 Active 86 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $188,900 Active 85 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $188,900 Active 84 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $188,900 Active 83 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $188,900 Active 81 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $188,900 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $188,900 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $188,900 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $188,900 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $188,900 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $188,900 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $188,900 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $188,900 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-04-30
    price $188,900 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch built in 1983, featuring a spacious open living area with a cozy fireplace, attached one-car garage, and a screened porch perfect for relaxing. Situated on nearly half an acre in a quiet Stockbridge neighborhood, this home offers convenient access to schools, shopping, dining, and major highways. A great opportunity for homeowners or investors looking for space, comfort, and long-term potential

15. 2026-04-30
    price $188,900 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch built in 1983, featuring a spacious open living area with a cozy fireplace, attached one-car garage, and a screened porch perfect for relaxing. Situated on nearly half an acre in a quiet Stockbridge neighborhood, this home offers convenient access to schools, shopping, dining, and major highways. A great opportunity for homeowners or investors looking for space, comfort, and long-term potential

16. 2026-03-23
    listed $229,000 New 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch built in 1983, featuring a spacious open living area with a cozy fireplace, attached one-car garage, and a screened porch perfect for relaxing. Situated on nearly half an acre in a quiet Stockbridge neighborhood, this home offers convenient access to schools, shopping, dining, and major highways. A great opportunity for homeowners or investors looking for space, comfort, and long-term potential

17. 2026-03-23
    listed $229,000 Active 430-char remark

    Show marketing remark (430 chars)

    Charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath ranch built in 1983, featuring a spacious open living area with a cozy fireplace, attached one-car garage, and a screened porch perfect for relaxing. Situated on nearly half an acre in a quiet Stockbridge neighborhood, this home offers convenient access to schools, shopping, dining, and major highways. A great opportunity for homeowners or investors looking for space, comfort, and long-term potential

18. 2026-03-17
    historical
19. 2025-11-25
    listed $234,500 New
20. 2025-10-29
    historical
21. 2025-10-29
    historical
22. 2025-10-25
    listed $234,500 Active
23. 2025-10-25
    listed $234,500 New
24. 2021-02-26
    soldstatus $173,000
25. 2021-02-22
    soldstatus $173,000 Closed
26. 2021-02-22
    soldstatus $173,000 Sold
27. 2021-01-23
    status Under Contract
28. 2021-01-23
    status Pending
29. 2021-01-18
    status Back on Market
30. 2021-01-18
    status Active
31. 2021-01-09
    status Under Contract
32. 2021-01-09
    status Pending
33. 2020-12-29
    listed $170,000 Active
34. 2020-12-29
    listed $170,000 New
35. 2020-12-01
    soldstatus $147,100
36. 2005-03-04
    soldstatus $114,900
37. 1998-10-07
    soldstatus $83,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,849 · $321/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,849 · $321/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 7 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,096
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,581
• − Property taxes: −$3,849
• − Insurance: −$944
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,768
• − Management: −$1,768
• − Depreciation: −$5,495
• Taxable loss: −$2,310
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$554
• After-tax cash flow: $1,329/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Henry County
• NCES district ID: 1302820
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $62,594
• Composite: 26.13/100
• National rank: #7279
• State rank: #89 of 174 in GA

Livability — Stockbridge

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #389
• US rank: #19479

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime D Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Henry County · 316,359 people
• City population: 71,603
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 71,603
• Household income: $71,213
• Rent vs Own: 37.7% rent · 62.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 2464.0

Population outlook (Henry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 249,041 people
• By 2030: 264,369 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 294,459 · +18.2%
• By 2050: 322,249 · +29.4%
• By 2075: 392,310 · +57.5%
• By 2100: 437,836 · +75.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 55% White 28% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 1% Italian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8% Vietnamese 2% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Henry

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.7) · D 64.5% · R 34.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +37.1pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 29.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.7 2020: D+20.5 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+3.2 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -104.76%
• Current HPI: 207.2332
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.87%
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

+126.8% since first listed

24 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $188,900 FMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $188,900 GAMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $229,000 FMLS
• 2026-03-23 Listed $229,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-17 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $234,500 GAMLS
• 2025-10-29 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-10-29 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2025-10-25 Listed $234,500 GAMLS
• 2025-10-25 Listed $234,500 FMLS
• 2021-02-26 Sold (Public Records) $173,000 Public Records
• 2021-02-22 Sold (MLS) $173,000 GAMLS
• 2021-02-22 Sold (MLS) $173,000 FMLS
• 2021-01-23 Pending — GAMLS
• 2021-01-23 Pending — FMLS
• 2021-01-18 Relisted — GAMLS
• 2021-01-18 Relisted — FMLS
• 2021-01-09 Pending — GAMLS
• 2021-01-09 Pending — FMLS
• 2020-12-29 Listed $170,000 GAMLS
• 2020-12-29 Listed $170,000 FMLS
• 2020-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $147,100 Public Records
• 2005-03-04 Sold (Public Records) $114,900 Public Records
• 1998-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $83,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,849 · +4.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.