648 Birchwood · South Lockport, NY 14094

$68,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured · 173 Days on market

Built 1996

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

You will Love the Open Floor Plan in this 1152 sq ft 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home. There is a 2 car garage that sure will come in handy and be nice to have. A large almost private yard with a storage shed and tree lined on one side. Enjoy relaxing on your back deck or your small resin entrance area for a chair or two. There is a patio that connects the garage to the entrance to the home. Your dining room is in the front of the home with large windows to bring in the sunshine and many built-in cabinets. Then step down into your kitchen with a pantry and lots of cabinets and a center island. And open from the kitchen is a nice sized living room with large windows. There are 2 bedrooms. And one large bathroom that is connected to the primary bedroom and the hallway with a step in shower. You'll love spiffing it up to make it your own.

Key facts

• Stand-up shower
• Large bathroom
• Sky light

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN APPLIANCES
• LARGE BATHROOM
• STAND-UP SHOWER
• SKY LIGHT
• NEW LVP FLOORING
• UPDATED VINYL WINDOWS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Land lease: $830

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage with electricity; Garage (approximately 1.5 car)
• Utilities: Public water (connected); Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-wide manufactured home; 1 story; Resale property; City street frontage
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Existing structure
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Covered and open porch; Covered porch; Shed(s) / storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven and gas range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Kitchen island; Pantry
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms on the main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Vinyl; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom on the main level
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Separate/formal living room; Kitchen island; Pantry; Main-level primary bedroom; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry; Washer and dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $68k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $535 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $68k).
• Recommended offer: $60k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 1.5% in South Lockport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#633 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, schools F, crime F.
• Lockport City School District (town): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #452 of 590 in NY (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 357 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 167 units permitted in Niagara County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $470 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Niagara County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.7% rent growth), your $19k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($60k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $68k implies a 70% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $59,840 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.87% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.73%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.71%
• DSCR: 2.50
• GRM: 4.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $40,320
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1352 Fernwood Dr	0.08mi	2/1.0	1,152 (0%)	4mo	$39,000	$34	93
1158 Timberwood Ct	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,064 (-8%)	6mo	$60,000	$56	67
1108 Lockwood Dr	0.21mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-12%)	0mo	$30,000	$30	65
288 Fox Hunt Dr	0.71mi	2/1.0	1,164 (+1%)	2mo	$45,600	$39	64
533 Applewood Dr	0.24mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-12%)	5mo	$35,000	$35	60
464 Jim Kelly Dr	0.57mi	2/2.0	1,216 (+6%)	2mo	$55,000	$45	58
349 S Brookside	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (-4%)	0mo	$37,500	$34	58
1289 Norwood Dr	0.38mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,064 (-8%)	5mo	$37,000	$35	57
378 Birchwood	0.55mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,095 (-5%)	2mo	$35,000	$32	56
210 Ash St	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (+6%)	0mo	$75,000	$62	49
149 Crestwood Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (+8%)	7mo	$25,000	$20	45
306 Dogwood Dr	0.69mi	2/2.0	1,035 (-10%)	7mo	$43,000	$42	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 29.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.26×
• Total profit: $23,933
• Equity at exit: $10,139

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.59×
• Total profit: $68,379
• Equity at exit: $5,879

Cash invested: $19,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14094

• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 357
• Price-to-rent: 4.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,272 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$357
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$85 /mo · $1,020/yr
• Insurance: −$28
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$267
• Net cashflow: $535

Break-even live

Break-even rent $595

Max offer price $68,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $17,000
• Closing costs: $2,040
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-01
   statusdays on market $68,000 Pending 173 DOM
2. 2026-05-31
   days on market $68,000 Active 172 DOM
3. 2026-05-13
   status Active
4. 2026-05-13
   price $68,000
5. 2025-09-29
   listed $70,000 Active
6. 2025-06-05
   soldstatus $40,000 Closed 841-char remark

   Show marketing remark (841 chars)

   You will Love the Open Floor Plan in this 1152 sq ft 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home. There is a 2 car garage that sure will come in handy and be nice to have. A large almost private yard with a storage shed and tree lined on one side. Enjoy relaxing on your back deck or your small resin entrance area for a chair or two. There is a patio that connects the garage to the entrance to the home. Your dining room is in the front of the home with large windows to bring in the sunshine and many built-in cabinets. Then step down into your kitchen with a pantry and lots of cabinets and a center island. And open from the kitchen is a nice sized living room with large windows. There are 2 bedrooms. And one large bathroom that is connected to the primary bedroom and the hallway with a step in shower. You'll love spiffing it up to make it your own.

7. 2025-06-02
   status Pending 841-char remark

   Show marketing remark (841 chars)

   You will Love the Open Floor Plan in this 1152 sq ft 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home. There is a 2 car garage that sure will come in handy and be nice to have. A large almost private yard with a storage shed and tree lined on one side. Enjoy relaxing on your back deck or your small resin entrance area for a chair or two. There is a patio that connects the garage to the entrance to the home. Your dining room is in the front of the home with large windows to bring in the sunshine and many built-in cabinets. Then step down into your kitchen with a pantry and lots of cabinets and a center island. And open from the kitchen is a nice sized living room with large windows. There are 2 bedrooms. And one large bathroom that is connected to the primary bedroom and the hallway with a step in shower. You'll love spiffing it up to make it your own.

8. 2025-04-25
   listed $49,900 Active 841-char remark

   Show marketing remark (841 chars)

   You will Love the Open Floor Plan in this 1152 sq ft 2 bedroom, 1 bathroom home. There is a 2 car garage that sure will come in handy and be nice to have. A large almost private yard with a storage shed and tree lined on one side. Enjoy relaxing on your back deck or your small resin entrance area for a chair or two. There is a patio that connects the garage to the entrance to the home. Your dining room is in the front of the home with large windows to bring in the sunshine and many built-in cabinets. Then step down into your kitchen with a pantry and lots of cabinets and a center island. And open from the kitchen is a nice sized living room with large windows. There are 2 bedrooms. And one large bathroom that is connected to the primary bedroom and the hallway with a step in shower. You'll love spiffing it up to make it your own.

9. 2025-03-29
   historical
10. 2024-10-29
    listed $65,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 72% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥94°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,264
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,809
• − Property taxes: −$1,020
• − Insurance: −$340
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,221
• − Management: −$1,221
• − Depreciation: −$1,978
• Taxable income: $5,674
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,362
• After-tax cash flow: $5,057/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lockport City School District
• NCES district ID: 3617670
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $43,793
• Composite: 39.28/100
• National rank: #3997
• State rank: #452 of 590 in NY

Livability — South Lockport

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #633
• US rank: #11642

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing C Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: South Lockport, NY
• County: Niagara County · 157,377 people
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• Population (ZIP): 50,153
• Household income: $75,427
• Rent vs Own: 28.1% rent · 71.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 1112.0

Population outlook (Niagara County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 204,149 people
• By 2030: 197,900 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 182,239 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 165,198 · -19.1%
• By 2075: 129,416 · -36.6%
• By 2100: 96,222 · -52.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 6% Black 6% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Niagara

• 2024 margin: R (+14.9) · D 42.5% · R 57.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.9pp toward R · 2008: 1.0pp · 2024: -14.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.9 2020: R+9.7 2016: R+19.0 2012: D+0.6 2008: D+1.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.57%
• Current HPI: 303.6109
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Buffalo-Cheektowaga, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+4.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-13 Relisted — WNYREIS
• 2026-05-13 Price Changed $68,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-09-29 Listed $70,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-06-05 Sold (MLS) $40,000 WNYREIS
• 2025-06-02 Pending — WNYREIS
• 2025-04-25 Listed $49,900 WNYREIS
• 2025-03-29 Listing Removed — WNYREIS
• 2024-10-29 Listed $65,000 WNYREIS