834 E Patton St · Paxton, IL 60957

$89,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,310 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1953 0.34 ac lot $69/sqft · 33% below area Est $135k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +8.1/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Solid ranch in Paxton ready for its new owner. The home features a functional layout with multiple living areas and an eat-in kitchen with ample cabinet space. Two bedrooms include an oversized primary, plus an updated full bath and a large laundry room with additional storage. The fenced backyard offers good space and includes a storage shed. The property does need some updates, but offers strong potential for value-add through cosmetic improvements. A great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to build equity.

Key facts

• 0.34 acre lot
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1953

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $245 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
• Recommended offer: $82k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 5.3% in Paxton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#316 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Paxton-Buckley-Loda CUD 10 (town): math 33% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #232 of 620 in IL (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Ford County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ford County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $25k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($82k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 23y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (5%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $68k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $81,809 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.31% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.66%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $134,796
• List price: $89,900
• Delta: -33.31%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10 Park Lawn St	0.14mi	3/1.0	1,244 (-5%)	6mo	$115,000	$92	80
641 E Center St	0.23mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,286 (-2%)	4mo	$150,000	$117	75
866 E Center St	0.18mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,346 (+3%)	10mo	$73,000	$54	74
403 S Fall St	0.17mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,450 (+11%)	8mo	$105,000	$72	62
450 E Pine St	0.54mi	3/1.5	1,225 (-6%)	6mo	$140,000	$114	57
846 E Pells St	0.26mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,147 (-12%)	10mo	$129,900	$113	54
237 E State St	0.59mi	3/1.0	1,222 (-7%)	9mo	$131,800	$108	54
242 E Pine St	0.66mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,426 (+9%)	0mo	$115,000	$81	49
319 E Orleans St	0.45mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,494 (+14%)	2mo	$169,000	$113	47
418 E Chestnut St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,204 (-8%)	5mo	$137,500	$114	46
427 E Spruce St	0.64mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,190 (-9%)	8mo	$133,000	$112	43
431 E Chestnut St	0.71mi	3/1.5	1,494 (+14%)	8mo	$126,900	$85	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,073
• Equity at exit: $13,404

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.84×
• Total profit: $21,229
• Equity at exit: $7,773

Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60957

• Home prices YoY: -31.9%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 6.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,175 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$471
• Tax from tax record: −$175 /mo · $2,096/yr
• Insurance: −$37
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$247
• Net cashflow: $245

Break-even live

Break-even rent $865

Max offer price $89,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $22,475
• Closing costs: $2,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 35 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $89,900 Active 108 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $89,900 Active 107 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $89,900 Active 106 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $89,900 Active 105 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,900 Active 103 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,900 Active 102 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,900 Active 100 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,900 Active 99 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,900 Active 98 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,900 Active 97 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,900 Active 94 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,900 Active 92 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,900 Active 91 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,900 Active 90 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,900 Active 89 DOM
16. 2026-04-02
    price $89,900 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    Solid ranch in Paxton ready for its new owner. The home features a functional layout with multiple living areas and an eat-in kitchen with ample cabinet space. Two bedrooms include an oversized primary, plus an updated full bath and a large laundry room with additional storage. The fenced backyard offers good space and includes a storage shed. The property does need some updates, but offers strong potential for value-add through cosmetic improvements. A great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to build equity.

17. 2026-03-02
    listed $95,000 Active 524-char remark

    Show marketing remark (524 chars)

    Solid ranch in Paxton ready for its new owner. The home features a functional layout with multiple living areas and an eat-in kitchen with ample cabinet space. Two bedrooms include an oversized primary, plus an updated full bath and a large laundry room with additional storage. The fenced backyard offers good space and includes a storage shed. The property does need some updates, but offers strong potential for value-add through cosmetic improvements. A great opportunity for investors or buyers looking to build equity.

18. 2024-02-26
    historical
19. 2023-06-23
    status Active
20. 2023-04-20
    historical Contingent - Continue to Show
21. 2023-04-20
    historical
22. 2023-04-14
    status Active
23. 2023-03-22
    status Pending
24. 2023-03-13
    price
25. 2022-10-27
    listed Active
26. 2009-05-19
    soldstatus $68,000
27. 2009-05-19
    soldstatus $68,000
28. 2009-05-11
    soldstatus $68,000
29. 2009-04-14
    historical
30. 2009-04-14
    historical
31. 2007-08-07
    listed $79,900
32. 2007-08-07
    listed $79,900
33. 2003-04-29
    soldstatus $64,500
34. 2003-04-01
    historical
35. 2003-02-02
    listed $65,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,096 · $175/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,096 · $175/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,101
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,036
• − Property taxes: −$2,096
• − Insurance: −$450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,128
• − Management: −$1,128
• − Depreciation: −$2,615
• Taxable income: $1,648
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$395
• After-tax cash flow: $2,541/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Paxton-Buckley-Loda CUD 10
• NCES district ID: 1707650
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $52,233
• Composite: 27.27/100
• National rank: #7007
• State rank: #232 of 620 in IL

Livability — Paxton

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #316
• US rank: #6283

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Paxton, IL
• Population (ZIP): 5,620

Population outlook (Ford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,044 people
• By 2030: 12,607 · -3.4%
• By 2040: 11,716 · -10.2%
• By 2050: 10,836 · -16.9%
• By 2075: 9,328 · -28.5%
• By 2100: 7,803 · -40.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 0% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.9) · D 25.1% · R 73.0% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -18.9pp toward R · 2008: -29.0pp · 2024: -47.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.9 2020: R+47.3 2016: R+48.7 2012: R+42.9 2008: R+29.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.59%
• Current HPI: 153.0624
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+37.3% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $89,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-02 Listed $95,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-26 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-23 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-20 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-20 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-04-14 Relisted — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-22 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-03-13 Price Changed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-10-27 Listed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-05-19 Sold (MLS) $68,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-05-19 Sold (MLS) $68,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-05-11 Sold (Public Records) $68,000 Public Records
• 2009-04-14 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-14 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-07 Listed $79,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2007-08-07 Listed $79,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-04-29 Sold (MLS) $64,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-04-01 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2003-02-02 Listed $65,500 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,096 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.