1531 46th Ave E · Ellenton, FL 34222

$140,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 58 Days on market

Built 1988 4,182 sqft lot Est $138k · at est. $50/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.9/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Home Sweet Home! This furnished 2-bedroom, 2-bath LAND-OWNED gem is move-in ready and waiting for you. Step inside to a spacious and inviting floorplan featuring an enclosed Florida room, a large living area, and a dining room complete with a built-in buffet. The kitchen offers a convenient breakfast bar, while the indoor laundry room provides added functionality with overhead cabinets and a pantry closet. Outside, you’ll love the charming curb appeal, covered carport parking, and an additional parking pad ideal for your golf cart. A generously sized shed/workshop adds extra storage and workspace. Located in the desirable Tidevue Estates community, residents enjoy a low monthly fee of

Key facts

• Indoor laundry room
• Pantry closet
• Overhead cabinets

Tags

• ENCLOSED FLORIDA ROOM
• BREAKFAST BAR
• INDOOR LAUNDRY ROOM
• OVERHEAD CABINETS
• PANTRY CLOSET
• COVERED CARPORT PARKING

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: Has HOA (Tidevue Office) with required approval; Monthly HOA $50 (Annual $600); Senior community; No pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Covered driveway; 1-car carport
• Security: Association approval required
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities; Electric water heater
• Home design: Manufactured double-wide home; Single-story (one level); East-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding and other exterior materials; Other roof; Slab foundation; Built as double wide
• Exterior features: Covered, enclosed patio/porch; Exterior lighting; Sliding doors; Shed(s), storage and workshop; Paved lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceiling fans; High ceilings; Walk-in closets; Window treatments; Skylights; Blinds and shades; Florida room; Inside utility / storage
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Inside laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($13k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $140k).
• Recommended offer: $136k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 4.5% in Ellenton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#232 in FL, #3,666 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 182 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,548/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($64k/yr) (locally 313% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 58 days — a 3% lower offer ($136k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $140k implies a 141% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,800 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 58 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.44%
• DSCR: 2.49
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $138,240
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4508 14th St E	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-2%)	3mo	$110,000	$104	83
1206 45th Avenue Dr E	0.29mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-2%)	2mo	$135,000	$128	76
4207 13th St E	0.34mi	2/2.0	1,056 (-2%)	3mo	$123,000	$116	74
4214 15th St E	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,152 (+7%)	1mo	$220,000	$191	72
1210 44th Avenue Dr E	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-7%)	1mo	$130,000	$129	71
1432 41st Ave E	0.30mi	2/1.5	1,000 (-7%)	3mo	$189,000	$189	69
4547 12th Street Ct E	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,176 (+9%)	6mo	$61,000	$52	68
1208 45th Avenue Dr E	0.28mi	2/2.0	1,008 (-7%)	5mo	$65,000	$64	67
4212 13th St E	0.31mi	2/2.0	960 (-11%)	2mo	$175,000	$182	62
4314 12th Street Ct E	0.28mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,190 (+10%)	2mo	$105,000	$88	59
1224 41st Avenue Dr E	0.36mi	2/2.0	963 (-11%)	4mo	$125,000	$130	57
1005 45th Ave E	0.38mi	2/2.0	960 (-11%)	4mo	$100,000	$104	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.20×
• Total profit: $46,891
• Equity at exit: $20,874

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.33×
• Total profit: $130,451
• Equity at exit: $12,105

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34222

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Active inventory: 182
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,548 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$78 /mo · $942/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$50
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $1,092

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,166

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4180 Yardly Dr Palmetto, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1021	$2,498	$2.45	3d	15	0.26mi
5021 US Highway 301 N Ellenton, FL	3.0	2.5	861	$3,900	$4.53	3d	1	0.37mi
4612 8th Street Ct E Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1210	$3,000	$2.48	24d	1	0.55mi
4711 8th Street Ct E Ellenton, FL	2.0	1.0	1350	$2,100	$1.56	24d	1	0.58mi
4403 7th St E #4 Ellenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1079	$2,700	$2.50	24d	1	0.70mi
1651 36th Ave E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	804	$1,397	$1.74	3d	13	0.72mi
5942 Factory Shops Blvd Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	953	$2,362	$2.48	2d	67	0.97mi
2710 59th Dr E Ellenton, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1149	$2,234	$1.94	3d	37	1.15mi
850 Tidewater Shores Loop #402 Bradenton, FL	2.0	2.0	1151	$2,650	$2.30	24d	1	1.32mi
4648 Lindever Ln Palmetto, FL	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,289	$1.53	3d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $50 · $600/yr

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-05-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-19
   price $140,000
3. 2026-03-27
   listed $150,000 Active
4. 1988-03-25
   soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $942 · $78/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,162 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$220/yr (+$18/mo · 23.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 13% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,581
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$942
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,446
• − Management: −$2,446
• − HOA: −$600
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable income: $11,531
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,768
• After-tax cash flow: $10,340/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manatee
• NCES district ID: 1201230
• Math proficiency: 54% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,607
• Composite: 44.43/100
• National rank: #2806
• State rank: #26 of 73 in FL

Livability — Ellenton

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #232
• US rank: #3666

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ellenton, FL
• County: Manatee County · 416,364 people
• City population: 14,819
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• Population (ZIP): 14,819
• Household income: $64,355
• Rent vs Own: 21.9% rent · 78.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 313.0

Population outlook (Manatee County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,342 people
• By 2030: 488,911 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 567,934 · +27.0%
• By 2050: 637,995 · +42.6%
• By 2075: 781,970 · +74.8%
• By 2100: 848,272 · +89.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 13% Black 7% Native American 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Manatee

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.5) · D 37.9% · R 61.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.5pp toward R · 2008: -7.0pp · 2024: -23.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.5 2020: R+16.1 2016: R+17.1 2012: R+12.5 2008: R+7.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.75%
• Current HPI: 293.2597
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+141.4% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-24 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $140,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-27 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1988-03-25 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $942 · +8.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.