206 NW Creekside Dr · Grants Pass, OR 97526

$149,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 232 Days on market

Built 1998 $99/sqft · at area comps Est $146k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.3/30.0
• DSCR +9.5/10.0
• 1% rule +6.9/10.0
• ARV discount +6.3/15.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Listing in Highland Heights MHP, a 55+ Community! This spacious 3bedroom 2-bath home offers 1,518 sq. ft. of comfortable living. Built in 1998, it features a bright living room with vaulted ceilings and sunny windows, cozy gas stove. Large kitchen with white cabinets, generous counter space, and adjoining dining area. The primary suite includes a private bath with dual sinks, fiberglass shower, and patio door access. Recent updates include new LVP flooring and new carpet in the bedrooms. Laundry room. Outdoors, enjoy a fenced, landscaped yard with automatic sprinklers, storage shed, and tandem carport. Park offers well water; monthly space rent is $850. One pet allowed with park approval.

Key facts

• Parking
• Built 1998
• Listed 231 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $433 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $150k).
• Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.8% vs local median 3.2% in Grants Pass — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#137 in OR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: schools D, employment D, crime F.
• Grants Pass SD 7 (urban): math 39% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #66 of 183 in OR (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.0%/yr); 160 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 223 units permitted in Josephine County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Josephine County population projected at +3% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 232 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $150k implies a 168% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $131,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 232 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.19% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 12.38%
• DSCR: 1.55
• GRM: 7.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $146,000
• List price: $149,900
• Delta: 2.67%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
156 NW Wrightwood Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,586 (+5%)	2mo	$146,000	$92	86
221 NW Creekside Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,518 (+0%)	8mo	$156,000	$103	85
129 NW Wrightwood Cir	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,583 (+5%)	15mo	$130,000	$82	75
105 NW Wrightwood Cir	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,685 (+11%)	15mo	$157,000	$93	65
217 NW Creekside Dr	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-14%)	21mo	$160,000	$123	56
2325 NW Highland Ave #56	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,296 (-14%)	8mo	$60,000	$46	53
2325 NW Highland Ave #39	0.21mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,337 (-12%)	15mo	$95,000	$71	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $1,576
• Equity at exit: $22,351

10-year hold

• IRR: 9.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.71×
• Total profit: $29,973
• Equity at exit: $12,961

Cash invested: $41,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Oregon: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

SB608 (2019): statewide rent cap (7% + CPI) and just-cause for tenancies > 1 yr. Portland has relocation assistance ordinance.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 97526

• Rents YoY: 2.0%
• Active inventory: 160
• Price-to-rent: 7.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,789 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$786
• Tax from tax record: −$132 /mo · $1,582/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$376
• Net cashflow: $433

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,241

Max offer price $149,900

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,475
• Closing costs: $4,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1950 NW Michelle Way Grants Pass, OR	3.0	2.0	1074	$2,100	$1.96	43d	1	0.41mi
347 NW Pleasant View Dr Grants Pass, OR	3.0	2.0	1094	$1,800	$1.65	43d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $149,900 Active 232 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,900 Active 231 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,900 Active 230 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,900 Active 229 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,900 Active 228 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $149,900 Active 226 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,900 Active 225 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $149,900 Active 223 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,900 Active 222 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,900 Active 221 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,900 Active 220 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $149,900 Active 217 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,900 Active 216 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,900 Active 215 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,900 Active 214 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,900 Active 213 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $149,900 Active 212 DOM
18. 2026-05-11
    status Active 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    New Listing in Highland Heights MHP, a 55+ Community! This spacious 3bedroom 2-bath home offers 1,518 sq. ft. of comfortable living. Built in 1998, it features a bright living room with vaulted ceilings and sunny windows, cozy gas stove. Large kitchen with white cabinets, generous counter space, and adjoining dining area. The primary suite includes a private bath with dual sinks, fiberglass shower, and patio door access. Recent updates include new LVP flooring and new carpet in the bedrooms. Laundry room. Outdoors, enjoy a fenced, landscaped yard with automatic sprinklers, storage shed, and tandem carport. Park offers well water; monthly space rent is $850. One pet allowed with park approval.

19. 2026-05-02
    status Pending 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    New Listing in Highland Heights MHP, a 55+ Community! This spacious 3bedroom 2-bath home offers 1,518 sq. ft. of comfortable living. Built in 1998, it features a bright living room with vaulted ceilings and sunny windows, cozy gas stove. Large kitchen with white cabinets, generous counter space, and adjoining dining area. The primary suite includes a private bath with dual sinks, fiberglass shower, and patio door access. Recent updates include new LVP flooring and new carpet in the bedrooms. Laundry room. Outdoors, enjoy a fenced, landscaped yard with automatic sprinklers, storage shed, and tandem carport. Park offers well water; monthly space rent is $850. One pet allowed with park approval.

20. 2026-04-02
    price $149,900 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    New Listing in Highland Heights MHP, a 55+ Community! This spacious 3bedroom 2-bath home offers 1,518 sq. ft. of comfortable living. Built in 1998, it features a bright living room with vaulted ceilings and sunny windows, cozy gas stove. Large kitchen with white cabinets, generous counter space, and adjoining dining area. The primary suite includes a private bath with dual sinks, fiberglass shower, and patio door access. Recent updates include new LVP flooring and new carpet in the bedrooms. Laundry room. Outdoors, enjoy a fenced, landscaped yard with automatic sprinklers, storage shed, and tandem carport. Park offers well water; monthly space rent is $850. One pet allowed with park approval.

21. 2026-04-01
    status Active 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    New Listing in Highland Heights MHP, a 55+ Community! This spacious 3bedroom 2-bath home offers 1,518 sq. ft. of comfortable living. Built in 1998, it features a bright living room with vaulted ceilings and sunny windows, cozy gas stove. Large kitchen with white cabinets, generous counter space, and adjoining dining area. The primary suite includes a private bath with dual sinks, fiberglass shower, and patio door access. Recent updates include new LVP flooring and new carpet in the bedrooms. Laundry room. Outdoors, enjoy a fenced, landscaped yard with automatic sprinklers, storage shed, and tandem carport. Park offers well water; monthly space rent is $850. One pet allowed with park approval.

22. 2026-03-31
    historical 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    New Listing in Highland Heights MHP, a 55+ Community! This spacious 3bedroom 2-bath home offers 1,518 sq. ft. of comfortable living. Built in 1998, it features a bright living room with vaulted ceilings and sunny windows, cozy gas stove. Large kitchen with white cabinets, generous counter space, and adjoining dining area. The primary suite includes a private bath with dual sinks, fiberglass shower, and patio door access. Recent updates include new LVP flooring and new carpet in the bedrooms. Laundry room. Outdoors, enjoy a fenced, landscaped yard with automatic sprinklers, storage shed, and tandem carport. Park offers well water; monthly space rent is $850. One pet allowed with park approval.

23. 2026-01-15
    price $155,000 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    New Listing in Highland Heights MHP, a 55+ Community! This spacious 3bedroom 2-bath home offers 1,518 sq. ft. of comfortable living. Built in 1998, it features a bright living room with vaulted ceilings and sunny windows, cozy gas stove. Large kitchen with white cabinets, generous counter space, and adjoining dining area. The primary suite includes a private bath with dual sinks, fiberglass shower, and patio door access. Recent updates include new LVP flooring and new carpet in the bedrooms. Laundry room. Outdoors, enjoy a fenced, landscaped yard with automatic sprinklers, storage shed, and tandem carport. Park offers well water; monthly space rent is $850. One pet allowed with park approval.

24. 2025-10-20
    listed $160,000 Active 702-char remark

    Show marketing remark (702 chars)

    New Listing in Highland Heights MHP, a 55+ Community! This spacious 3bedroom 2-bath home offers 1,518 sq. ft. of comfortable living. Built in 1998, it features a bright living room with vaulted ceilings and sunny windows, cozy gas stove. Large kitchen with white cabinets, generous counter space, and adjoining dining area. The primary suite includes a private bath with dual sinks, fiberglass shower, and patio door access. Recent updates include new LVP flooring and new carpet in the bedrooms. Laundry room. Outdoors, enjoy a fenced, landscaped yard with automatic sprinklers, storage shed, and tandem carport. Park offers well water; monthly space rent is $850. One pet allowed with park approval.

25. 1998-02-01
    soldstatus $56,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,582 · $132/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,582 · $132/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 30 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,471
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,397
• − Property taxes: −$1,582
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,718
• − Management: −$1,718
• − Depreciation: −$4,361
• Taxable income: $2,947
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$707
• After-tax cash flow: $4,490/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Grants Pass SD 7
• NCES district ID: 4105910
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $36,433
• Composite: 41.5/100
• National rank: #7281
• State rank: #66 of 183 in OR

Livability — Grants Pass

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #137
• US rank: #7900

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute F Cost of living B Crime F Employment D Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Grants Pass, OR
• County: Josephine County · 73,366 people
• City population: 73,366
• Metro: Grants Pass, OR
• Population (ZIP): 36,036
• Household income: $61,019
• Rent vs Own: 32.3% rent · 67.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1407.0

Population outlook (Josephine County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,883 people
• By 2030: 89,055 · +1.3%
• By 2040: 90,396 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 90,801 · +3.3%
• By 2075: 89,880 · +2.3%
• By 2100: 81,252 · -7.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (84%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 84% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Slovak 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Josephine

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+29.1) · D 34.2% · R 63.3% · Other 2.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.8pp toward R · 2008: -13.2pp · 2024: -29.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+29.1 2020: R+25.8 2016: R+31.4 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+13.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -257.77%
• Current HPI: 326.3247
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.04%
• Metro: Grants Pass, OR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	1	$51B

Price history

+167.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2026-05-02 Pending — MLSCO
• 2026-04-02 Price Changed $149,900 MLSCO
• 2026-04-01 Relisted — MLSCO
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — MLSCO
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $155,000 MLSCO
• 2025-10-20 Listed $160,000 MLSCO
• 1998-02-01 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,582 · +6.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.