51 Oak Crest Ct · Bel Air South, MD 21015

$349,900

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 1,910 sqft · Townhouse public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1986 2,047 sqft lot Est $359k · at est. $85/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• ARV discount +8.7/15.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * * We are now in a multiple offer situation. Highest & best offers are due no later than Tuesday 5/9/23 at 7pm & the sellers intend on making a decision on Wednesday 5/10/23. * * * 2,100 Square Feet of living space!! -Windows March 4th 2021 -Water heater July 16,2021 -HVAC Aug 21, 2018 -Luxury Vinyl throughout -New floors put in upstairs, the kitchen and 2 of the bathrooms. Placed on April 2022 -HOA $85 includes grass cutting, snow removal and trash/recycling -Stainless Steel Appliances -Freshly painted - Screened in Deck -Patterson Mill Middle and High School. One of most sought after schools in Harford county. -2 assigned parking spaces. Many visitor parking also. Walking distance to the shopping center which has tons of restaurants, a grocery store, Kohls, Burlington, Carters, Verizon and more! Open House Saturday, May 6!

Key facts

• $85 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Built 1986

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly HOA fee of $85; HOA covers trash, snow removal, and front lawn care

Exterior

• Parking: Two assigned parking spaces; On-street parking available
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Cable TV available
• Home design: Interior townhouse/rowhouse; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Aluminum siding and brick exterior; Asphalt roof; Slab foundation; Double pane windows; Partially finished walkout basement with front entrance (finished and unfinished lower-level space)
• Exterior features: Deck(s); Screened outdoor living area; Patio(s); Sidewalks; Landscaping; Located on a cul-de-sac

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric oven/range; Range hood; Refrigerator; Disposal; Exhaust fan
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level; One bedroom on the lower level
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms on the upper level; One full bathroom on the lower level; One half bathroom on the main level; Three full bathrooms total, one half bathroom total
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump(s); Central air conditioning; Electric heating and cooling; Electric hot water
• Interior features: Kitchen with table space; Dining area; Master bathroom; Traditional floor plan; Insulated doors
• Laundry & utility: Washer in unit; Dryer in unit; Laundry located in the basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath townhouse listed at $350k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-45 ($-546/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $342k (2.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $280k (19.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $280k (19.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 4.1% in Bel Air South — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#33 in MD, #1,172 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, cost of living D.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.2%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 12 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 67% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 28y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $280,242 (19.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.56%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $359,080
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
43 Oak Crest Ct	0.03mi	4/3.5	1,900 (-0%)	2mo	$318,000	$167	96
25 Oak Crest Ct	0.06mi	4/3.0	1,910 (0%)	7mo	$335,000	$175	89
232 Point To Point Sq	0.33mi	4/3.5	1,884 (-1%)	0mo	$385,000	$204	82
220 Hunters Run Ter	0.25mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,960 (+3%)	7mo	$355,000	$181	73
2202 N Tollgate Cir	0.53mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,916 (+0%)	1mo	$325,000	$170	67
238 Point To Point Sq	0.34mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,860 (-3%)	8mo	$319,900	$172	64
1930 Laurel Oak Dr	0.16mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,728 (-10%)	17mo	$313,000	$181	54
200 Temple Dr	0.40mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,160 (+13%)	2mo	$405,000	$188	53
233 Burkwood Ct	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,900 (-0%)	8mo	$367,500	$193	53
2238 N Tollgate Cir	0.58mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,714 (-10%)	11mo	$325,000	$190	36
68 Crystal Ct	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,184 (+14%)	6mo	$605,000	$277	32
328 Barrister Ct	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,678 (-12%)	14mo	$325,000	$194	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.23% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-56,140
• Equity at exit: $52,171

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-38,068
• Equity at exit: $30,253

Cash invested: $97,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21015

• Rents YoY: 4.2%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,802 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax from tax record: −$194 /mo · $2,324/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$85
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $-45

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,860

Max offer price $341,867

Occupancy floor 97%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $153	-5% $54	+0% $-45	+5% $-145	+10% $-244
Rent	-10% $-267	-5% $-156	+0% $-45	+5% $65	+10% $176
Rate	-1.0pp $131	-0.5pp $44	base $-45	+0.5pp $-136	+1.0pp $-228

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,475
• Closing costs: $10,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 12 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
43 Oak Crest Ct Bel Air, MD	4.0	3.5	1900	$2,695	$1.42	44d	1	0.03mi
2202 N Tollgate Cir Bel Air, MD	3.0	2.5	1916	$2,400	$1.25	18d	1	0.54mi
401 Darby Ln Bel Air, MD	3.0	2.5	1930	$2,450	$1.27	24d	1	0.79mi
300 Cinnabar Ln Bel Air, MD	3.0	3.5	1887	$2,600	$1.38	44d	1	0.84mi
442 Darby Ln Bel Air, MD	4.0	3.5	1442	$2,700	$1.87	44d	1	0.86mi
2509 Merrick Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	1.5	1230	$1,900	$1.54	44d	1	0.95mi
129 Long Meadow Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	1.5	1240	$2,200	$1.77	44d	1	1.00mi
2503 Buckingham Ct Abingdon, MD	4.0	2.0	2292	$2,995	$1.31	15d	1	1.11mi
307L Tall Pines Ct Unit L Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.0	1300	$2,399	$1.85	15d	1	1.23mi
546 Kirkcaldy Way Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1520	$2,350	$1.55	44d	1	1.36mi
569 Kirkcaldy Way Abingdon, MD	3.0	3.5	2040	$2,600	$1.27	44d	1	1.37mi
644 Berwick Ct Abingdon, MD	3.0	2.5	1500	$2,395	$1.60	44d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $85 · $1,020/yr
• Likely covers: watertrashsnow removalparking

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $349,900 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $349,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $349,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $349,900 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   listed $349,900 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,324 · $194/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,069 · $256/mo
• Expected delta: +$745/yr (+$62/mo · 32.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,629
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,600
• − Property taxes: −$2,324
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,690
• − Management: −$2,690
• − HOA: −$1,020
• − Depreciation: −$10,179
• Taxable loss: −$6,624
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,590
• After-tax cash flow: $1,044/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Bel Air South

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #1172

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute A- Cost of living D Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bel Air South, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• City population: 63,895
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 30,013
• Household income: $137,281
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 5% Hispanic / Latino 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Italian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -211.26%
• Current HPI: 251.2512
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.23%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+448.2% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $349,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-10 Coming Soon $349,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-06-07 Sold (Public Records) $330,000 Public Records
• 2023-05-23 Sold (MLS) $330,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-12 Contingent — BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-05-06 Listed $330,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2023-04-28 Coming Soon $330,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2010-07-21 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 1999-01-13 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 1998-12-29 Sold (MLS) $88,000 MRIS
• 1998-11-11 Delisted — MRIS
• 1998-06-12 Listed $92,852 MRIS
• 1985-06-24 Sold (Public Records) $63,825 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,324 · +5.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.