9433 Spinnaker St · Grayling, MI 49738

$77,500

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 651 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1948 6,969 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.2/10.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Cozy family-owned cottage just steps away from beautiful Lake Margrethe with nearby public access for endless summer enjoyment. This charming log sided cabin features rustic wooden beams, warm wood burner charm, and a peaceful up-north feel throughout. Nestled among beautiful birch trees, the property offers a small patio for relaxing evenings, plus a convenient shed for extra storage. A perfect getaway to enjoy lake life, nature and cozy cottage living. Summer cottage/ no central heat and no insulation

Key facts

• Rustic wooden beams
• Public access
• Convenient shed

Tags

• LAKE MARGRETHE
• PUBLIC ACCESS
• RUSTIC WOODEN BEAMS
• SMALL PATIO
• CONVENIENT SHED
• BIRCH TREES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; Subdivision: Portage Lake Park 2nd Add
• Construction: Crawl space / no basement
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Natural vegetation / natural state; Gravel road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wood heating (wood stove); Cooling via ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Wood burning stove / wood stove; Fireplace: Wood burning stove
• Laundry & utility: No laundry facilities

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $6 ($75/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($776 rent vs $78k).
• Cap rate 8.3% vs local median 3.0% in Grayling — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#269 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Crawford Ausable Schools (town): math 43% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #140 of 540 in MI (top 26%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Grayling Elementary School (math 42% / reading 42%, grade F, #547 of 1,397 statewide, top 41%, 638 students, 66% FRL); Grayling Middle School (math 48% / reading 52%, grade C, #117 of 493 statewide, top 25%, 461 students, 57% FRL); Grayling High School (math 47% / reading 72%, grade C+, #80 of 713 statewide, top 12%, 452 students, 50% FRL).
• Market conditions: 162 active listings in the ZIP; 75 units permitted in Crawford County in 2024 (32 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $536 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Crawford County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo; built in 1948 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $77,500

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1948 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.27%
• DSCR: 1.32
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-12,107
• Equity at exit: $11,556

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.55×
• Total profit: $-9,808
• Equity at exit: $6,701

Cash invested: $21,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49738

• Home prices YoY: -19.5%
• Active inventory: 162
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $776 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$406
• Tax from tax record: −$43 /mo · $517/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$163
• Net cashflow: $6

Break-even live

Break-even rent $768

Max offer price $77,500

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $50	-5% $28	+0% $6	+5% $-16	+10% $-38
Rent	-10% $-55	-5% $-24	+0% $6	+5% $37	+10% $68
Rate	-1.0pp $45	-0.5pp $26	base $6	+0.5pp $-14	+1.0pp $-34

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,375
• Closing costs: $2,325
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $77,500 Pending 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $77,500 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $77,500 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $77,500 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $77,500 Active 3 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $77,500 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-05-28
   listed $77,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $517 · $43/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $855 · $71/mo
• Expected delta: +$338/yr (+$28/mo · 65.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $9,315
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,341
• − Property taxes: −$517
• − Insurance: −$1,890
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$745
• − Management: −$745
• − Depreciation: −$2,255
• Taxable loss: −$1,178
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$283
• After-tax cash flow: $357/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Crawford Ausable Schools
• NCES district ID: 2611030
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $40,396
• Composite: 38.94/100
• National rank: #4086
• State rank: #140 of 540 in MI

Livability — Grayling

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #269
• US rank: #6631

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,599

Population outlook (Crawford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 13,042 people
• By 2030: 12,520 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 11,292 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 10,157 · -22.1%
• By 2075: 8,338 · -36.1%
• By 2100: 6,765 · -48.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 7% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Crawford

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.8) · D 32.5% · R 66.2% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.1pp toward R · 2008: -1.7pp · 2024: -33.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.8 2020: R+30.7 2016: R+32.8 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.14%
• Current HPI: 280.922
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-28 Listed $77,500 WWMLS

Property tax history

-0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $517 · -27.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.