24854 Shady Oaks Blvd · Todd Mission, TX 77316

$216,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,844 sqft · Manufactured public records · 175 Days on market

Built 1998 2.00 ac lot $117/sqft · 13% below area Est $248k · 13% under $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.3/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Priced to sell! Sweet country living on 2 wooded acres. With some TLC and updates in this 3/2 spacious home, you will be right in line with property values, this is a growing area located in Magnolia ISD. Horses allowed with restrictions. This is such a beautiful property to call home!

Key facts

• Wooded acres
• Horses allowed
• 2 acre lot

Tags

• WOODED ACRES
• HORSES ALLOWED

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $216k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $77 ($926/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $201k (6.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 2.9% in Todd Mission — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#549 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 2283 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 175 days — a 12% lower offer ($190k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $216k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $190,080 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 175 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.72%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.53%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $247,500
• List price: $216,000
• Delta: -12.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24854 Shady Oaks Blvd	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,844 (0%)	1mo	$216,000	$117	99
24910 Shady Oaks Blvd	0.34mi	3/2.0	2,016 (+9%)	4mo	$279,000	$138	65

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.42×
• Total profit: $-35,175
• Equity at exit: $32,206

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-44,115
• Equity at exit: $18,676

Cash invested: $60,480 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77316

• Home prices YoY: -10.7%
• Rents YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 2283
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,012 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,133
• Tax from tax record: −$277 /mo · $3,323/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$423
• Net cashflow: $77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,915

Max offer price $216,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $199	-5% $138	+0% $77	+5% $16	+10% $-45
Rent	-10% $-82	-5% $-2	+0% $77	+5% $157	+10% $236
Rate	-1.0pp $186	-0.5pp $132	base $77	+0.5pp $21	+1.0pp $-36

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,000
• Closing costs: $6,480
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
25553 Blossom Ct Montgomery, TX	3.0	2.0	1249	$1,690	$1.35	3d	1	0.64mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-15
   status Pending 287-char remark

   Show marketing remark (287 chars)

   Priced to sell! Sweet country living on 2 wooded acres. With some TLC and updates in this 3/2 spacious home, you will be right in line with property values, this is a growing area located in Magnolia ISD. Horses allowed with restrictions. This is such a beautiful property to call home!

2. 2026-05-06
   status Pending 287-char remark

   Show marketing remark (287 chars)

   Priced to sell! Sweet country living on 2 wooded acres. With some TLC and updates in this 3/2 spacious home, you will be right in line with property values, this is a growing area located in Magnolia ISD. Horses allowed with restrictions. This is such a beautiful property to call home!

3. 2026-04-30
   price $216,000 287-char remark

   Show marketing remark (287 chars)

   Priced to sell! Sweet country living on 2 wooded acres. With some TLC and updates in this 3/2 spacious home, you will be right in line with property values, this is a growing area located in Magnolia ISD. Horses allowed with restrictions. This is such a beautiful property to call home!

4. 2025-11-20
   listed $229,000 Active 287-char remark

   Show marketing remark (287 chars)

   Priced to sell! Sweet country living on 2 wooded acres. With some TLC and updates in this 3/2 spacious home, you will be right in line with property values, this is a growing area located in Magnolia ISD. Horses allowed with restrictions. This is such a beautiful property to call home!

5. 2019-05-17
   soldstatus $90,000
6. 2019-05-17
   soldstatus
7. 2017-10-09
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,323 · $277/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,953 · $329/mo
• Expected delta: +$630/yr (+$53/mo · 19.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,149
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,099
• − Property taxes: −$3,323
• − Insurance: −$1,080
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,932
• − Management: −$1,932
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$6,284
• Taxable loss: −$2,657
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$638
• After-tax cash flow: $1,564/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — Todd Mission

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #549
• US rank: #10627

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,694
• Household income: $124,055
• Rent vs Own: 10.9% rent · 89.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 273.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 11% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 6% Slovak 3% Romanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 8%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.44%
• Current HPI: 262.6973
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.40%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+140.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-15 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-05-06 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $216,000 HARMLS
• 2025-11-20 Listed $229,000 HARMLS
• 2019-05-17 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-05-17 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2017-10-09 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+5.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,323 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.