48 Apache Trl · Lake Tansi, TN 38572

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 248 sqft · Manufactured public records · 159 Days on market

Built 1970

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

This lovely home on a one and a half lot provides ample privacy that will have you feeling like you & rsquo; re camping at the lake every day. The main bedroom is big enough for a king-size bed and the 2nd bedroom can fit a single or double or use it as a walk-in closet. This home features recent updates throughout including a brand-new walk-in shower, a new fridge and new water heater. All appliances and furniture can stay with the home. In the back there & rsquo; s a nice big storage shed for your tools and toys. New metal roof was installed in last few years. Take a short walk down to the private beach at beautiful Lake Tansi. For a small $105 monthly & quot; HOA& quot;

Key facts

• New metal roof
• Recent updates
• Private beach

Tags

• ONE AND A HALF LOT
• RECENT UPDATES
• WALK-IN SHOWER
• STORAGE SHED
• NEW METAL ROOF
• PRIVATE BEACH

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $77 ($922/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $115k (4.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#245 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Cumberland County (rural): math 30% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #59 of 139 in TN (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 447 active listings in the ZIP; 114 units permitted in Cumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($830 loan paydown + $12k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Cumberland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 159 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 9 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 159 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.74%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.3%
• Equity multiple: 3.09×
• Total profit: $70,267
• Equity at exit: $108,106

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 7.04×
• Total profit: $203,111
• Equity at exit: $233,134

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38572

• Home prices YoY: 10.4%
• Active inventory: 447
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,147 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$241
• Net cashflow: $77

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 159 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 158 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 157 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 156 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 154 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $120,000 Active 153 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 150 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 149 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 148 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 147 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 144 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 143 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 142 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 141 DOM
15. 2026-01-29
    soldstatus $115,000
16. 2026-01-06
    listed $120,000 Active
17. 2025-12-30
    historical
18. 2025-10-31
    price $119,900
19. 2025-10-31
    price $119,900
20. 2025-10-31
    price $119,900
21. 2025-10-28
    status Active
22. 2025-10-28
    status Active
23. 2025-10-16
    historical Active Under Contract
24. 2025-10-16
    historical Pending - Continue to Show
25. 2025-10-16
    historical
26. 2025-09-04
    price $120,000
27. 2025-09-04
    price $120,000
28. 2025-09-04
    price $120,000
29. 2025-08-01
    price $109,000
30. 2025-08-01
    price $109,000
31. 2025-08-01
    price $109,000
32. 2025-07-28
    status Active
33. 2025-07-28
    status Active
34. 2025-07-25
    historical Active Under Contract
35. 2025-07-25
    historical Pending - Continue to Show
36. 2025-07-17
    price $110,000
37. 2025-07-17
    price $110,000
38. 2025-07-17
    price $110,000
39. 2025-07-07
    price $114,000
40. 2025-07-07
    price $114,000
41. 2025-07-07
    price $114,000
42. 2025-06-22
    price $115,000
43. 2025-06-22
    price $115,000
44. 2025-06-22
    price $115,000
45. 2025-05-21
    price $116,000
46. 2025-05-21
    price $116,000
47. 2025-05-21
    price $116,000
48. 2025-05-08
    price $120,000
49. 2025-05-07
    price $120,000
50. 2025-05-07
    price $120,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,764
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,101
• − Management: −$1,101
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$1,051
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$252
• After-tax cash flow: $1,174/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cumberland County
• NCES district ID: 4700900
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $38,510
• Composite: 25.52/100
• National rank: #7438
• State rank: #59 of 139 in TN

Livability — Lake Tansi

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #245
• US rank: #17630

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Tansi, TN
• Population (ZIP): 12,030

Population outlook (Cumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,344 people
• By 2030: 62,611 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 64,547 · +5.2%
• By 2050: 65,462 · +6.7%
• By 2075: 66,839 · +9.0%
• By 2100: 63,855 · +4.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Cumberland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.8pp toward R · 2008: -37.1pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+57.1 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+49.1 2008: R+37.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.68%
• Current HPI: 367.3069
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+4.5% since first listed

52 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-29 Sold (Public Records) $115,000 Public Records
• 2026-01-06 Listed $120,000 Fizber.com
• 2025-12-30 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $119,900 UCMLS
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $119,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-31 Price Changed $119,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-10-28 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-28 Relisted — Knoxville MLS
• 2025-10-16 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-16 Contingent — Knoxville MLS
• 2025-10-16 Listing Removed — Knoxville MLS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $120,000 UCMLS
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $120,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-04 Price Changed $120,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $109,000 UCMLS
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $109,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-01 Price Changed $109,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-07-28 Relisted — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-28 Relisted — Knoxville MLS
• 2025-07-25 Contingent — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-25 Contingent — Knoxville MLS
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $110,000 UCMLS
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $110,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $110,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $114,000 UCMLS
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $114,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-07-07 Price Changed $114,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-06-22 Price Changed $115,000 UCMLS
• 2025-06-22 Price Changed $115,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-22 Price Changed $115,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-05-21 Price Changed $116,000 UCMLS
• 2025-05-21 Price Changed $116,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-21 Price Changed $116,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-05-08 Price Changed $120,000 UCMLS
• 2025-05-07 Price Changed $120,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-07 Price Changed $120,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-04-07 Price Changed $123,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-04-07 Price Changed $123,000 UCMLS
• 2025-04-07 Price Changed $123,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $124,000 UCMLS
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $124,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-03-11 Price Changed $124,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-01 Price Changed $124,900 UCMLS
• 2025-03-01 Price Changed $124,900 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-03-01 Price Changed $124,900 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-02-18 Listed $125,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-02-18 Listed $125,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-25 Listing Removed — REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-03-25 Listing Removed — Knoxville MLS
• 2024-03-07 Listed $130,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2024-03-07 Listed $130,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-09-26 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $72 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.