148 Oakwood Dr · Petaluma, CA 94954

$77,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 800 sqft · Manufactured · 125 Days on market

Built 1970 Est $124k · 37% under ↓ 52% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Super clean and updated home in this 55+ park comes with a newer roof, windows, water heater, furnace, exterior paint and gas stove. 2 bedrooms, 1 bath on a large lot with plenty of room for gardening. Attached sun porch with screens and blinds.

Key facts

• Gas oven
• Laundry closet
• Mature lemon tree

Tags

• ENCLOSED FRONT PORCH
• PRIVATE YARDS
• MATURE LEMON TREE
• AMPLE CABINET SPACE
• GAS OVEN
• LAUNDRY CLOSET

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Monthly land lease
• HOA & community: No association; Senior community

Exterior

• Parking: Covered parking; Guest parking available; Total parking for 1 vehicle
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park; Double wide
• Construction: Aluminum skirting; Manufacturer: SKYLINE; Make: BUDDY
• Exterior features: Screened-in patio; Backyard; Fenced yard; Carport awning; Porch awning

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing gas range; Free-standing refrigerator; Range hood
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower combination
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; No cooling
• Interior features: Carbon monoxide detector and smoke detector; Dining room, living room
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer included; Laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $78k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($20k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $78k).
• Recommended offer: $69k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 32.2% vs local median 2.3% in Petaluma — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#33 in CA, #1,161 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, employment A+; Watch: cost of living F.
• Petaluma Joint Union High (suburban): math 44% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #112 of 517 in CA (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 61 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 1,039 units permitted in Sonoma County in 2024 (185 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $539 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sonoma County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.6% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 125 days — a 12% lower offer ($69k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $17k (18%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $68,552 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 125 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.60% ✓
• Cap rate: 32.16%
• Cash-on-cash: 92.37%
• DSCR: 5.11
• GRM: 2.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $124,000
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
121 Oakwood Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	813 (+2%)	9mo	$115,000	$141	83
151 Oakwood Dr	0.02mi	2/2.0	813 (+2%)	15mo	$132,999	$164	80
1566 Crown Rd	0.42mi	2/1.0	840 (+5%)	10mo	$119,000	$142	64
1501 Florence Way	0.46mi	2/2.0	840 (+5%)	4mo	$130,000	$155	63
537 Boxwood Dr	0.15mi	2/1.0	710 (-11%)	19mo	$35,000	$49	58
1551 Royal Oak Dr	0.37mi	2/1.0	840 (+5%)	23mo	$139,000	$165	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 90.4%
• Equity multiple: 5.02×
• Total profit: $87,758
• Equity at exit: $11,615

10-year hold

• IRR: 92.9%
• Equity multiple: 9.64×
• Total profit: $188,495
• Equity at exit: $6,735

Cash invested: $21,812 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94954

• Rents YoY: 0.6%
• Active inventory: 61
• Price-to-rent: 2.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,807 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$409
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$97 /mo · $1,168/yr
• Insurance: −$32
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$589
• Net cashflow: $1,679

Break-even live

Break-even rent $681

Max offer price $77,900

Occupancy floor 35%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $1,733	-5% $1,706	+0% $1,679	+5% $1,652	+10% $1,625
Rent	-10% $1,457	-5% $1,568	+0% $1,679	+5% $1,790	+10% $1,901
Rate	-1.0pp $1,718	-0.5pp $1,699	base $1,679	+0.5pp $1,659	+1.0pp $1,638

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,475
• Closing costs: $2,337
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
495 N McDowell Blvd Petaluma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1028	$3,432	$3.34	0d	4	0.43mi
240 Park Place Dr Petaluma, CA	2.0	1.0	872	$2,450	$2.81	14d	1	0.48mi
1900 Sestri Ln Petaluma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	716	$2,998	$4.19	0d	6	0.64mi
333 N McDowell Blvd Petaluma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0	672	$2,141	$3.18	2d	7	0.73mi
132 Maria Dr Petaluma, CA	3.0	2.0	1056	$2,895	$2.74	14d	1	0.81mi
907 Mustang Ct Petaluma, CA	1.0	1.0	700	$2,550	$3.64	14d	1	1.03mi
1408 Mauro Pietro Dr Unit 7-202 Petaluma, CA	1.0	1.0	651	$2,199	$3.38	14d	1	1.08mi
1412 Mauro Pietro Dr #206 Petaluma, CA	2.0	2.0	943	$2,995	$3.18	14d	1	1.10mi
55 Maria Dr Petaluma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	957	$3,548	$3.71	14d	6	1.14mi
200 Greenbriar Cir Petaluma, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	794	$3,266	$4.11	14d	19	1.23mi
142 Cherry St Petaluma, CA	2.0	1.0	874	$2,450	$2.80	14d	1	1.36mi

Listing history 27 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $77,900 Active 125 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $77,900 Active 124 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $77,900 Active 123 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $77,900 Active 122 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $77,900 Active 120 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $77,900 Active 119 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $77,900 Active 117 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $77,900 Active 116 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $77,900 Active 115 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $77,900 Active 114 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $77,900 Active 111 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $77,900 Active 110 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $77,900 Active 109 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $77,900 Active 108 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $77,900 Active 107 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $77,900 Active 106 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    price $83,500
18. 2026-04-16
    price $87,000
19. 2026-02-13
    listed $95,000 Active
20. 2022-06-24
    soldstatus $79,000 Closed 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Super clean and updated home in this 55+ park comes with a newer roof, windows, water heater, furnace, exterior paint and gas stove. 2 bedrooms, 1 bath on a large lot with plenty of room for gardening. Attached sun porch with screens and blinds.

21. 2022-06-14
    status Pending 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Super clean and updated home in this 55+ park comes with a newer roof, windows, water heater, furnace, exterior paint and gas stove. 2 bedrooms, 1 bath on a large lot with plenty of room for gardening. Attached sun porch with screens and blinds.

22. 2022-05-09
    listed $89,900 Active 247-char remark

    Show marketing remark (247 chars)

    Super clean and updated home in this 55+ park comes with a newer roof, windows, water heater, furnace, exterior paint and gas stove. 2 bedrooms, 1 bath on a large lot with plenty of room for gardening. Attached sun porch with screens and blinds.

23. 2021-10-31
    status Active
24. 2021-10-29
    historical Contingent (No Show)
25. 2021-09-24
    price $125,000
26. 2021-09-01
    price $159,000
27. 2021-08-16
    listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 20 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,680
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,364
• − Property taxes: −$1,168
• − Insurance: −$390
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,694
• − Management: −$2,694
• − Depreciation: −$2,266
• Taxable income: $20,103
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$4,825
• After-tax cash flow: $15,322/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Petaluma Joint Union High
• NCES district ID: 0630250
• Math proficiency: 44% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 60% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $78,473
• Composite: 47.11/100
• National rank: #2329
• State rank: #112 of 517 in CA

Livability — Petaluma

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #33
• US rank: #1161

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Petaluma, CA
• County: Sonoma County · 449,805 people
• City population: 71,359
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• Population (ZIP): 37,574
• Household income: $113,527
• Rent vs Own: 32.7% rent · 67.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1421.0

Population outlook (Sonoma County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 539,935 people
• By 2030: 554,870 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 573,262 · +6.2%
• By 2050: 580,715 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 579,229 · +7.3%
• By 2100: 547,835 · +1.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 16% Asian 4% Black 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 15%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sonoma

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+46.2) · D 71.4% · R 25.2% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.4pp toward R · 2008: 49.6pp · 2024: 46.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+46.2 2020: D+51.5 2016: D+47.9 2012: D+44.9 2008: D+49.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -813.92%
• Current HPI: 245.4729
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.61%
• Metro: Santa Rosa-Petaluma, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-52.3% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $83,500 BAREIS
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $87,000 BAREIS
• 2026-02-13 Listed $95,000 BAREIS
• 2022-06-24 Sold (MLS) $79,000 BAREIS
• 2022-06-14 Pending — BAREIS
• 2022-05-09 Listed $89,900 BAREIS
• 2021-10-31 Relisted — BAREIS
• 2021-10-29 Contingent — BAREIS
• 2021-09-24 Price Changed $125,000 BAREIS
• 2021-09-01 Price Changed $159,000 BAREIS
• 2021-08-16 Listed $175,000 BAREIS