4951 Patio Dr · Zephyrhills West, FL 33541

$79,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 720 sqft · Manufactured public records · 91 Days on market

Built 1969 6,500 sqft lot Est $94k · 15% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.9/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great opportunity to own a 3/1 mobile home with 936 sq ft on 0.15 acres, and you own the land! No lot rent. No HOA. Property needs some TLC but is mostly rent-ready, making it a strong value-add play for investors looking for immediate cash flow or a quick flip. Solid rental potential with minimal finishing touches needed. Priced well below market value for a fast sale.

Key facts

• 6,500 sq ft lot
• Built 1969
• Listed 91 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot about 0.15 acres; Zoned RMH; Contains 1 well and 1 septic; Living area about 936 sq ft

Exterior

• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Water connected
• Home design: Residential mobile home (single wide); One story; Faces east; Entry level: One
• Construction: Frame construction with wood siding; Metal roof; Crawlspace foundation; Built as a single wide
• Exterior features: Shed(s); Workshop; Other exterior features

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Ductless heating; Wall/window cooling units
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Kitchen/family room combo
• Laundry & utility: Laundry: Other

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $788 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.1% vs local median 7.8% in Zephyrhills West — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#772 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.5%/yr); 856 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 36% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 91 days — a 9% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $80k implies a 191% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,709 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 91 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1969 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.13%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.27%
• DSCR: 2.88
• GRM: 3.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $93,600
• Comps found: 10

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
35238 Dodie Dr #09	0.49mi	1/2.0 (-1)	726 (+1%)	2mo	$79,000	$109	69
35204 Ada Ave	0.59mi	2/1.0	710 (-1%)	0mo	$80,000	$113	66
35246 Tiffani Lot 63 Ct	0.44mi	2/1.0	687 (-5%)	5mo	$118,000	$172	63
35142 Zephyr Shores Dr	0.61mi	2/2.0	720 (0%)	12mo	$83,000	$115	61
35012 Dale Ave	0.74mi	2/2.0	732 (+2%)	4mo	$95,000	$130	59
36029 Aster Ave	0.57mi	2/2.0	768 (+7%)	13mo	$100,000	$130	51
36416 Cordova Cir	0.73mi	2/1.0	672 (-7%)	1mo	$60,000	$89	50
35220 Condominium Blvd #25	0.51mi	2/1.0	621 (-14%)	3mo	$90,000	$145	47
36122 Aster Ave	0.62mi	2/2.0	816 (+13%)	8mo	$115,000	$141	42
36413 Teakwood Ave	0.74mi	2/1.0	812 (+13%)	4mo	$159,000	$196	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 35.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $32,297
• Equity at exit: $11,913

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.7%
• Equity multiple: 4.29×
• Total profit: $73,649
• Equity at exit: $6,908

Cash invested: $22,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33541

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 856
• Price-to-rent: 3.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,696 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$99 /mo · $1,190/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$356
• Net cashflow: $788

Break-even live

Break-even rent $698

Max offer price $79,900

Occupancy floor 49%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $833	-5% $811	+0% $788	+5% $765	+10% $743
Rent	-10% $654	-5% $721	+0% $788	+5% $855	+10% $922
Rate	-1.0pp $828	-0.5pp $808	base $788	+0.5pp $767	+1.0pp $746

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,975
• Closing costs: $2,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5168 Crooked Ln Zephyrhills, FL	2.0	1.0	600	$1,645	$2.74	23d	1	1.26mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-10
   price $79,900
2. 2026-03-13
   price $84,900
3. 2026-02-24
   listed $89,900 Active
4. 2017-11-21
   soldstatus $27,500
5. 2000-03-13
   soldstatus $21,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,190 · $99/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,190 · $99/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,346
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,476
• − Property taxes: −$1,190
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,628
• − Management: −$1,628
• − Depreciation: −$2,324
• Taxable income: $8,701
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,088
• After-tax cash flow: $7,368/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Zephyrhills West

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #772
• US rank: #17403

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 24,654
• Household income: $56,579
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 393.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 8% Black 5% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 9%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 9% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -55.21%
• Current HPI: 308.0619
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.51%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+280.5% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $79,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-13 Price Changed $84,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Listed $89,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-11-21 Sold (Public Records) $27,500 Public Records
• 2000-03-13 Sold (Public Records) $21,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,190 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.