Dawn Plan · Dade City, FL 33523

$319,940

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,174 sqft · SingleFamily · 122 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

This single-story home shares an open layout between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space for year-round outdoor lounging. A luxe owner's suite is in the rear of the home and comes complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are three secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for overnight guests or residents needing additional privacy, as well as a flex space that can transform to meet the household's needs.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Flex space
• Open layout

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET
• FLEX SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $329,640

Exterior

• Parking: 2 garage spaces (2 total parking spaces)
• Home design: Single-family plan (Dawn); New construction
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 2,174

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 3 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan named Dawn (new construction plan)

🏗️ New construction. The $319,940 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $330,448.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-415 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $270k (15.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $237k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $237k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#307 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: San Antonio Elementary School (math 49% / reading 52%, grade D+, #1,055 of 2,144 statewide, top 50%, 573 students, 50% FRL); Pasco Middle School (math 38% / reading 38%, grade F, #388 of 571 statewide, top 69%, 903 students, 73% FRL); Pasco High School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #296 of 667 statewide, top 45%, 1,639 students, 66% FRL).
• Market conditions: 295 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $35k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $33k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$57k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 122 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $236,569 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 122 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.38%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 11.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $330,448
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14613 Italy Ave	0.41mi	4/3.0	2,164 (-0%)	1mo	$319,990	$148	79
14684 Italy Ave	0.42mi	4/3.0	2,164 (-0%)	1mo	$323,190	$149	79
14738 Italy Ave	0.45mi	4/2.0	2,164 (-0%)	7mo	$335,990	$155	69
36072 Canelli Way	0.46mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,387 (+10%)	1mo	$319,990	$134	57
14489 Italy Ave	0.38mi	4/2.0	1,900 (-13%)	2mo	$328,325	$173	56
13797 Wineberry Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5	2,046 (-6%)	8mo	$377,000	$184	54
13734 Whiskey Daisy Dr	0.70mi	4/2.5	2,238 (+3%)	8mo	$337,680	$151	54
36183 Canelli Way	0.41mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,387 (+10%)	8mo	$340,990	$143	54
14595 Italy Ave	0.41mi	4/2.0	1,900 (-13%)	4mo	$314,099	$165	53
13686 Whiskey Daisy Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5	2,238 (+3%)	8mo	$340,000	$152	52
13727 Whiskey Daisy Dr	0.69mi	4/2.5	2,238 (+3%)	11mo	$337,680	$151	52
36057 Canelli Way	0.48mi	4/2.0	1,900 (-13%)	5mo	$330,049	$174	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.66×
• Total profit: $153,590
• Equity at exit: $297,694

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.11×
• Total profit: $473,143
• Equity at exit: $641,988

Cash invested: $92,525 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33523

• Home prices YoY: 3.8%
• Active inventory: 295
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,366 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,733
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$413 /mo · $4,957/yr
• Insurance: −$138
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$497
• Net cashflow: $-415

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,891

Max offer price $270,432

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-186	-5% $-301	+0% $-415	+5% $-529	+10% $-643
Rent	-10% $-602	-5% $-508	+0% $-415	+5% $-321	+10% $-228
Rate	-1.0pp $-248	-0.5pp $-331	base $-415	+0.5pp $-500	+1.0pp $-587

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $82,612
• Closing costs: $9,913
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
36111 Canelli Way Dade City, FL	4.0	2.0	2008	$2,295	$1.14	4d	1	0.45mi
36350 Spanish Rose Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	2.0	1828	$2,149	$1.18	6d	1	0.81mi
13576 Whiskey Daisy Dr Dade City, FL	4.0	2.5	2238	$2,500	$1.12	1d	1	0.83mi
36169 Trinity Glade Rd Dade City, FL	4.0	2.5	2181	$2,600	$1.19	13d	1	1.27mi
36132 Trinity Glade Rd Dade City, FL	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,425	$1.60	16d	1	1.31mi
12945 Ogden Glade Rd Dade City, FL	4.0	2.0	1815	$2,195	$1.21	19d	1	1.35mi
35386 Spruce Knob Ct Dade City, FL	4.0	2.5	2958	$2,595	$0.88	1d	1	1.38mi
35514 Mahwah Ave Dade City, FL	4.0	3.0	2020	$2,400	$1.19	22d	1	1.43mi
35288 Spruce Knob Ct Dade City, FL	4.0	2.5	2305	$2,300	$1.00	19d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $319,940 Active 122 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $319,940 Active 121 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $319,940 Active 120 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $319,940 Active 119 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $319,940 Active 117 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $319,840 Active 113 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   pricedays on market $319,840 Active 112 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $319,740 Active 111 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $319,740 Active 108 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $319,740 Active 107 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $319,740 Active 106 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    price $329,740 Active 105 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $329,640 Active 105 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $329,640 Active 104 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,388
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,510
• − Property taxes: −$4,957
• − Insurance: −$1,652
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,271
• − Management: −$2,271
• − Depreciation: −$9,613
• Taxable loss: −$10,886
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,613
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,364/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Dade City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #307
• US rank: #5215

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 21,077
• Population (ZIP): 19,296

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 28% Black 10% Two or more races 10% Native American 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 75% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.36%
• Current HPI: 448.7
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B