400 Lenape Trl · Brielle, NJ 08730

$825,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,088 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1955 9,583 sqft lot Est $752k · 10% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• ARV discount +3.1/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Perfect opportunity to enjoy this lovely, sought-after Brielle neighborhood! Ranch style home, nestled on spacious lot, boasts hardwood floors throughout. Living Room features wood-burning fireplace, decorative molding, built-in shelving. Relax in Sun Porch that opens to private yard. Plenty of storage! Full attic & partial, dry basement is generous in size; property also offers convenient 2-car detached garage.

Key facts

• Plenty of storage
• Built ins
• Hardwood floors

Tags

• DETACHED 2 CAR GARAGE
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• DECORATIVE MOLDING
• BUILT INS
• PLENTY OF STORAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership
• Exterior features: Timberline roof

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric cooking / stove; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Tile; Wood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating present; Multi-unit cooling
• Interior features: Includes AC units, light fixtures, and fireplace (1 total); Partial basement; Sunroom; Living room; Dining room
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $825k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8k ($99k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($17k rent vs $825k).
• Recommended offer: $800k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 18.3% vs local median 2.9% in Brielle — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#138 in NJ, #3,641 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: schools A+, crime A+, employment A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Brielle Boro School District (suburban): math 50% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #76 of 472 in NJ (top 16%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 3% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,840 units permitted in Monmouth County in 2024 (484 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $6k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $25k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monmouth County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $231k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($800k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $390k; list at $825k implies a 112% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $800,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 18.28%
• Cash-on-cash: 42.83%
• DSCR: 2.91
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $751,808
• Comps found: 6

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
610 Agnes Ave	0.47mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,140 (+5%)	3mo	$775,000	$680	61
2572 Summit Rd	0.23mi	2/1.0	960 (-12%)	15mo	$730,000	$760	57
1238 Lakewood Rd	0.46mi	2/1.0	1,240 (+14%)	1mo	$685,000	$552	55
2404 Lenape Trl	0.57mi	2/1.0	957 (-12%)	7mo	$735,000	$768	48
507 Magnolia Ave	0.68mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,201 (+10%)	6mo	$830,000	$691	41
1032 Oval Rd #32	0.62mi	2/1.0	950 (-13%)	14mo	$420,000	$442	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 39.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $391,475
• Equity at exit: $123,010

10-year hold

• IRR: 46.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.40×
• Total profit: $1,017,325
• Equity at exit: $71,331

Cash invested: $231,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08730

• Home prices YoY: -29.4%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $17,270 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$4,326
• Tax from tax record: −$729 /mo · $8,746/yr
• Insurance: −$344
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$3,627
• Net cashflow: $8,244

Break-even live

Break-even rent $6,834

Max offer price $825,000

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $206,250
• Closing costs: $24,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
59 Lakewood Rd Manasquan, NJ	2.0	1.0	768	$23,500	$30.60	19d	1	0.38mi
715 Union Ave Apt 5 Brielle, NJ	1.0	1.0	736	$1,350	$1.83	25d	1	0.65mi
137 Marcellus Ave Manasquan, NJ	2.0	1.0	832	$23,000	$27.64	13d	1	0.65mi
417 Euclid Ave Unit A Brielle, NJ	1.0	1.5	1201	$2,600	$2.16	25d	1	0.83mi
370 E Main St Manasquan, NJ	3.0	1.5	1368	$16,000	$11.70	1d	1	1.17mi
110 Curtis Pl Manasquan, NJ	3.0	1.0	1108	$3,000	$2.71	24d	1	1.19mi
429 Euclid Ave Manasquan, NJ	2.0	1.0	1224	$1,800	$1.47	13d	1	1.21mi
167 4th Ave Manasquan, NJ	3.0	1.0	836	$40,000	$47.85	24d	1	1.43mi
191 3rd Ave Unit 1 Manasquan, NJ	3.0	1.0	1472	$19,000	$12.91	24d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $825,000 Pending 32 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $825,000 Active 31 DOM
3. 2026-06-03
   days on market $825,000 Active 30 DOM
4. 2026-06-02
   days on market $825,000 Active 29 DOM
5. 2026-06-01
   days on market $825,000 Active 28 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $825,000 Active 27 DOM
7. 2026-05-04
   listed $825,000 Active
8. 2015-12-16
   soldstatus $390,000
9. 2015-12-02
   soldstatus $390,000 Sold 422-char remark

   Show marketing remark (422 chars)

   Perfect opportunity to enjoy this lovely, sought-after Brielle neighborhood! Ranch style home, nestled on spacious lot, boasts hardwood floors throughout. Living Room features wood-burning fireplace, decorative molding, built-in shelving. Relax in Sun Porch that opens to private yard. Plenty of storage! Full attic & partial, dry basement is generous in size; property also offers convenient 2-car detached garage.

10. 2015-10-01
    historical 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    Perfect opportunity to enjoy this lovely, sought-after Brielle neighborhood! Ranch style home, nestled on spacious lot, boasts hardwood floors throughout. Living Room features wood-burning fireplace, decorative molding, built-in shelving. Relax in Sun Porch that opens to private yard. Plenty of storage! Full attic & partial, dry basement is generous in size; property also offers convenient 2-car detached garage.

11. 2015-07-16
    price $429,900 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    Perfect opportunity to enjoy this lovely, sought-after Brielle neighborhood! Ranch style home, nestled on spacious lot, boasts hardwood floors throughout. Living Room features wood-burning fireplace, decorative molding, built-in shelving. Relax in Sun Porch that opens to private yard. Plenty of storage! Full attic & partial, dry basement is generous in size; property also offers convenient 2-car detached garage.

12. 2015-07-09
    listed $449,900 Active 422-char remark

    Show marketing remark (422 chars)

    Perfect opportunity to enjoy this lovely, sought-after Brielle neighborhood! Ranch style home, nestled on spacious lot, boasts hardwood floors throughout. Living Room features wood-burning fireplace, decorative molding, built-in shelving. Relax in Sun Porch that opens to private yard. Plenty of storage! Full attic & partial, dry basement is generous in size; property also offers convenient 2-car detached garage.

13. 1982-03-01
    soldstatus $66,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,746 · $729/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $14,644 · $1,220/mo
• Expected delta: +$5,898/yr (+$492/mo · 67.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $207,240
• − Mortgage interest: −$46,213
• − Property taxes: −$8,746
• − Insurance: −$4,125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$16,579
• − Management: −$16,579
• − Depreciation: −$24,000
• Taxable income: $90,998
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$21,839
• After-tax cash flow: $77,092/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brielle Boro School District
• NCES district ID: 3402310
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -27.00%
• Median HH income: $111,430
• Composite: 51.54/100
• National rank: #1713
• State rank: #76 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Brielle

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #138
• US rank: #3641

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Brielle, NJ
• City population: 18,016
• Population (ZIP): 4,960

Population outlook (Monmouth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 620,308 people
• By 2030: 612,309 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 587,297 · -5.3%
• By 2050: 551,342 · -11.1%
• By 2075: 472,934 · -23.8%
• By 2100: 381,534 · -38.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2% Native American 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Portuguese 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monmouth

• 2024 margin: R (+11.4) · D 43.4% · R 54.8% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -3.7pp · 2024: -11.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.4 2020: R+2.8 2016: R+9.5 2012: R+5.5 2008: R+3.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -148.71%
• Current HPI: 356.9459
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+1150.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Listed $825,000 MOMLS
• 2015-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $390,000 Public Records
• 2015-12-02 Sold (MLS) $390,000 MOMLS
• 2015-10-01 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2015-07-16 Price Changed $429,900 MOMLS
• 2015-07-09 Listed $449,900 MOMLS
• 1982-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $66,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,746 · +2.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.