132 Lost Creek Trl · Abilene, TX 79602

$217,990

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,202 sqft · SingleFamily · 9 Days on market

Built 2025 Excellent condition 4,356 sqft lot Est $213k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +25.7/30.0
• DSCR +8.6/10.0
• 1% rule +6.8/10.0
• ARV discount +6.4/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21283109 - Built by NHC - Sep 2026 completion! ~ Model 1202 B1 - Yosemite The Yosemite Plan from our Freedom Series is a cozy and efficient single-story home featuring 3 bedrooms, 2 bathrooms, a 1-car garage, and 1,202 square feet of smartly designed living space. This split-level floorplan places two secondary bedrooms and a full bathroom at the front of the home, offering privacy and convenience. Continue into the open-concept living area, where the kitchen with a central island overlooks the dining area and family room—perfect for meals, gatherings, and quality family time. The primary suite is thoughtfully positioned off the family room for added privacy and includes a priva

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 2025

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Builder special listing condition; Possession at closing/funding
• Financial info: Listing terms: Cash, Conventional, FHA, VA; Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage
• HOA & community: No association (Association type listed as None); If applicable, annual association includes grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Covered parking space
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Not in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One story; New construction - incomplete (Year built 2025)
• Construction: Siding exterior; Composition roof; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision: Waterside at Cedar Creek; Lot less than 0.5 acre

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Electric range; Microwave
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom with walk-in closet (1st level); Two additional bedrooms (1st level)
• Flooring: Carpet; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central electric air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; One living area; One dining area; 6 total rooms; One level
• Laundry & utility: Washer/dryer hookups (standard laundry utilities)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $218k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $522 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $218k).
• Cap rate 9.2% vs local median 6.7% in Abilene — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime D, commute F.
• Abilene ISD (urban): math 32% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #575 of 826 in TX (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alcorta El (math 35% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,396 of 4,322 statewide, top 56%, 451 students, 70% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.5%/yr); 370 active listings in the ZIP; 10 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $61k cash investment doubles in ~8 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 9 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $217,990

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.27%
• DSCR: 1.46
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $212,754
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3541 Silver Springs Ct	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,209 (+1%)	1mo	$234,490	$194	86
2948 Waterside Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,202 (0%)	4mo	$218,000	$181	85
214 Houston Hollow St	0.16mi	3/2.0	1,209 (+1%)	10mo	$209,990	$174	84
144 Houston Hollow St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,209 (+1%)	11mo	$196,990	$163	83
2913 Autumnwood Way	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,209 (+1%)	12mo	$199,990	$165	81
112 Houston Hollow St	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,209 (+1%)	14mo	$208,990	$173	81
3501 Silver Springs Ct	0.26mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,212 (+1%)	1mo	$214,433	$177	79
3502 Water Ridge Ct	0.28mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,212 (+1%)	0mo	$247,990	$205	78
3526 Silver Springs Ct	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,209 (+1%)	1mo	$234,990	$194	68
3502 Silver Springs Ct	0.66mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,212 (+1%)	1mo	$225,490	$186	60
2670 Maple St	0.25mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,080 (-10%)	3mo	$155,000	$144	60
2809 Waverly Ave	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,095 (-9%)	12mo	$189,000	$173	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.19×
• Total profit: $11,555
• Equity at exit: $32,503

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.88×
• Total profit: $114,828
• Equity at exit: $18,848

Cash invested: $61,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79602

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 33.5%
• Active inventory: 370
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,568 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,143
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$272 /mo · $3,270/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $522

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,907

Max offer price $217,990

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,498
• Closing costs: $6,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 10 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
801 S 17th St Abilene, TX	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,800	$1.50	13d	1	1.17mi
1709 Bandolero Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1288	$4,500	$3.49	13d	1	1.24mi
1097 Lytle Creek Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,895	$1.99	13d	1	1.27mi
3749 Duke Ln Abilene, TX	2.0	1.0	925	$1,650	$1.78	7d	1	1.40mi
3601 Purdue Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	1.0	1172	$2,150	$1.83	3d	1	1.40mi
1651 Palm St Abilene, TX	2.0	1.0	760	$2,500	$3.29	44d	1	1.43mi
1649 Palm St Abilene, TX	2.0	1.0	760	$2,500	$3.29	44d	1	1.44mi
3933 Wake Forest Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,495	$1.89	21d	1	1.45mi
3933 Wake Forest Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1320	$2,495	$1.89	22d	1	1.45mi
3674 Radcliff Rd Abilene, TX	3.0	1.5	1155	$2,000	$1.73	13d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $217,990 Pending 9 DOM
2. 2026-06-03
   days on market $217,990 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   days on market $217,990 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $217,990 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $217,990 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-05-30
   days on market $217,990 Active 3 DOM
7. 2026-05-27
   listed $217,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 17% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,817
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,211
• − Property taxes: −$3,270
• − Insurance: −$1,090
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,465
• − Management: −$2,465
• − Depreciation: −$6,342
• Taxable income: $2,974
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$714
• After-tax cash flow: $5,554/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 4 photos

Excellent 100/100 None rehab

This single-family home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs or maintenance needed. It offers a modern kitchen, well-maintained exterior, and a tidy interior. Potential value-adding updates include painting and landscaping improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value.
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Smart home features can increase both resale and rental value by making the home more modern and convenient. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Abilene ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807440
• Math proficiency: 32% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,782
• Composite: 27.71/100
• National rank: #6909
• State rank: #575 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,425
• Household income: $89,551
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.04%
• Current HPI: 189.3098
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.46%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-27 Listed $217,990 NTREIS