1841 Trosper Rd SW #53 · Tumwater, WA 98512

$79,950

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,152 sqft · Manufactured public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1975 $69/sqft · 48% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

UPDATED! MODERN LOOK, READY TO MOVE-IN, 3 bedroom, 2 bath, located in quite 55+ Western Plaza Community Mobile Home Park. New Exterior and Interior Paint, New Laminate Floor (water proof) Kitchen update with Cabinet Painted, New Countertop, New Sink, New Refrigerator, Gas Stove and Dishwasher. New Gas Furnace just installed, Living room with small cozy Gas Woodstove. 2 Car Carport with Storage Shop, Easy to Freeway, Close to Shopping Center and all other services.

Key facts

• Kitchen update
• New countertop
• New sink

Tags

• NEW LAMINATE FLOOR
• KITCHEN UPDATE
• NEW COUNTERTOP
• NEW SINK
• NEW REFRIGERATOR
• GAS STOVE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($15k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.5% vs local median 2.7% in Tumwater — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#39 in WA, #700 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D, cost of living D-.
• Tumwater School District (urban): math 57% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #37 of 291 in WA (top 13%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.3%/yr); 233 active listings in the ZIP; 19 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,222 units permitted in Thurston County in 2024 (508 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $552 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Thurston County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.3% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 15y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $11k; list at $80k implies a 627% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $75,153 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1975 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.82% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 68.62%
• DSCR: 4.05
• GRM: 3.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $167,500
• List price: $79,950
• Delta: -52.27%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 17 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1841 Trosper Rd SW #38	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (0%)	13mo	$37,000	$32	84
1841 Trosper Rd SW #25	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (0%)	14mo	$75,000	$65	84
5705 Littlerock Rd SW #41	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,136 (-1%)	4mo	$85,000	$75	79
930 Trosper Rd SW #78	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,120 (-3%)	3mo	$85,000	$76	76
930 Trosper Rd #135	0.28mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,188 (+3%)	12mo	$132,000	$111	67
930 Trosper Rd SW #64	0.40mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+8%)	2mo	$61,000	$49	66
5119 Golden Eagle Ln SW	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,232 (+7%)	5mo	$196,000	$159	64
5081 E Gray Sea Eagle Ln SW	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,176 (+2%)	13mo	$100,000	$85	61
930 Trosper Rd SW #37	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,152 (0%)	20mo	$100,000	$87	56
5281 E Eagle Ln SW	0.30mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,056 (-8%)	15mo	$235,000	$223	54
930 Trosper Rd SW #34	0.43mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,040 (-10%)	11mo	$45,400	$44	49
930 SW Trosper Rd #57	0.41mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,260 (+9%)	22mo	$102,000	$81	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.26% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 67.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.99×
• Total profit: $66,907
• Equity at exit: $11,921

10-year hold

• IRR: 71.2%
• Equity multiple: 7.99×
• Total profit: $156,513
• Equity at exit: $6,913

Cash invested: $22,386 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 28 Tenant-Leaning
• State Washington: 28 Tenant-Leaning · D+8
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause statewide (2021); Seattle layers rent control restrictions + relocation assistance; very tenant-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 98512

• Rents YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 233
• Price-to-rent: 3.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,255 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$419
• Tax from tax record: −$48 /mo · $582/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$473
• Net cashflow: $1,280

Break-even live

Break-even rent $634

Max offer price $79,950

Occupancy floor 38%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $19,988
• Closing costs: $2,398
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 19 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1619 Trosper Rd SW Tumwater, WA	3.0	2.5	1295	$2,495	$1.93	21d	1	0.21mi
1978 Trosper Rd SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1106	$2,574	$2.33	13d	4	0.25mi
1978 Trosper Rd SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1050	$2,735	$2.60	43d	3	0.25mi
4822 Rural Rd SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,995	$1.95	21d	1	0.54mi
1517 Bishop Rd SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0–2.0	669	$1,930	$2.88	13d	1	0.54mi
1500 Lake Park Dr SW #29 Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.5	1428	$1,850	$1.30	21d	1	0.56mi
6705 Linderson Way SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	900	$2,350	$2.61	13d	6	0.68mi
6805 Littlerock Rd SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,495	$1.50	43d	1	0.72mi
301 T St SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	589	$1,635	$2.78	13d	5	0.75mi
215 Pinehurst Dr SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0–2.5	759	$1,950	$2.57	13d	4	0.78mi
214 65th Way SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,850	$1.85	21d	1	0.89mi
829 Israel Rd SW Apt A4 Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,395	$1.64	13d	1	0.92mi
829 Israel Rd SW Apt B6 Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,395	$1.64	43d	1	0.92mi
801 Israel Rd SW Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.5	965	$1,860	$1.93	13d	2	0.98mi
220 Israel Rd SW Unit G8 Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.5	968	$1,975	$2.04	43d	1	1.01mi
151 Cherry Ln SE Tumwater, WA	3.0	1.0	874	$2,195	$2.51	21d	1	1.08mi
811 S 3rd Ave SW Unit B Tumwater, WA	3.0	2.0	1336	$2,300	$1.72	43d	1	1.17mi
1704 Barnes Blvd SW Tumwater, WA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.5	920	$2,500	$2.72	13d	35	1.41mi
1992 Ridgeview Loop SW Unit 204 Tumwater, WA	2.0	1.0	804	$1,700	$2.11	21d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $79,950 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $79,950 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $79,950 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $79,950 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $89,950 Active 74 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $89,950 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $89,950 Active 71 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $89,950 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $89,950 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $89,950 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $89,950 Active 65 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $89,950 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $89,950 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $89,950 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $89,950 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-03-31
    listed $99,950 Active
17. 2011-07-14
    historical
18. 2011-07-13
    soldstatus $11,000 Sold
19. 2011-06-15
    status Pending Inspection
20. 2011-06-02
    price $11,000
21. 2011-04-13
    listed $15,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast WA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $582 · $48/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $784 · $65/mo
• Expected delta: +$202/yr (+$17/mo · 34.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥88°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 7 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,055
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,478
• − Property taxes: −$582
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,164
• − Management: −$2,164
• − Depreciation: −$2,326
• Taxable income: $14,940
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$3,586
• After-tax cash flow: $11,775/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tumwater School District
• NCES district ID: 5309100
• Math proficiency: 57% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $64,209
• Composite: 56.38/100
• National rank: #2477
• State rank: #37 of 291 in WA

Livability — Tumwater

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #39
• US rank: #700

Category grades

Amenities D Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime B- Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tumwater, WA
• County: Thurston County · 269,345 people
• City population: 46,937
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• Population (ZIP): 31,864
• Household income: $101,530
• Rent vs Own: 27.6% rent · 72.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 784.0

Population outlook (Thurston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 308,239 people
• By 2030: 326,483 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 359,890 · +16.8%
• By 2050: 391,800 · +27.1%
• By 2075: 468,024 · +51.8%
• By 2100: 519,890 · +68.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Two or more races 13% Hispanic / Latino 9% Asian 4% Black 3% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 4% Italian 4% Slovak 4%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Vietnamese 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Thurston

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+20.4) · D 58.5% · R 38.1% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.3pp toward R · 2008: 21.7pp · 2024: 20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+20.4 2020: D+18.6 2016: D+15.4 2012: D+19.0 2008: D+21.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -348.18%
• Current HPI: 347.121
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.26%
• Metro: Olympia-Lacey-Tumwater, WA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.65%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in WA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	2	$269B
▸Technology / Retail	1	$638B
▸Technology	1	$245B
▸Telecommunications	1	$38B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$36B
▸Automotive / Trucks	1	$34B

Price history

+566.3% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-31 Listed $99,950 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-14 Delisted — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-07-13 Sold (MLS) $11,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-15 Pending — NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-06-02 Price Changed $11,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-13 Listed $15,000 NWMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+7.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $582 · -29.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.