103 Hillview Ter · Hinesburg, VT 05461

$85,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 984 sqft · Manufactured public records · 115 Days on market

Built 1972 $86/sqft · 20% below area Est $120k · 29% under $485/mo HOA · 27% of rent ↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy the light and open floor plan of this 2 bedroom, 1 bath mobile home. Newer flooring throughout the home, metal roof, and newer appliances all stay with the home. There's also great additional storage out back in the shed, which would also make a great work space. This property is being sold AS IS.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• Newer flooring
• Great work space

Tags

• LIGHT AND OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NEWER FLOORING
• METAL ROOF
• NEWER APPLIANCES
• ADDITIONAL STORAGE
• GREAT WORK SPACE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $85k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $410 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $85k).
• Recommended offer: $77k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#54 in VT) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, health & safety A+, housing B; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Market conditions: 34 active listings in the ZIP; 898 units permitted in Chittenden County in 2024 (554 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $588 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chittenden County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $24k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 115 days — a 9% lower offer ($77k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 27% of rent.

Recommended offer $77,350 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 115 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.08%
• Cash-on-cash: 20.67%
• DSCR: 1.92
• GRM: 4.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $120,343
• List price: $85,000
• Delta: -29.37%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2201 North Rd	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	980 (-0%)	8mo	$70,000	$71	80
201 Hillview Ter	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,064 (+8%)	5mo	$34,000	$32	74
62 Hillview Ter	0.05mi	2/2.0 (-1)	952 (-3%)	13mo	$135,000	$142	73
137 Hillview Ter	0.03mi	2/2.0 (-1)	907 (-8%)	8mo	$142,900	$158	70
68 Hillview Ter	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,088 (+11%)	9mo	$158,000	$145	69
201 Hillview Ter #30	0.06mi	3/2.0	1,064 (+8%)	20mo	$28,000	$26	63
182 Hillview Ter	0.09mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,088 (+11%)	23mo	$154,900	$142	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.53×
• Total profit: $12,608
• Equity at exit: $12,674

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $45,706
• Equity at exit: $7,349

Cash invested: $23,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Vermont: 41 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Just-cause in Burlington (2022); strong habitability.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 05461

• Home prices YoY: -32.5%
• Active inventory: 34
• Price-to-rent: 4.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,769 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$446
• Tax from tax record: −$22 /mo · $259/yr
• Insurance: −$35
• HOA: −$485
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$372
• Net cashflow: $410

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,250

Max offer price $85,000

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $21,250
• Closing costs: $2,550
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $485 · $5,820/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $85,000 Active 115 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $85,000 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $85,000 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $85,000 Active 112 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $85,000 Active 111 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $85,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $85,000 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $85,000 Active 106 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $85,000 Active 105 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $85,000 Active 104 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $85,000 Active 103 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $85,000 Active 98 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $85,000 Active 97 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $85,000 Active 96 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $85,000 Active 95 DOM
16. 2026-02-23
    listed $85,000 Active 304-char remark

    Show marketing remark (304 chars)

    Enjoy the light and open floor plan of this 2 bedroom, 1 bath mobile home. Newer flooring throughout the home, metal roof, and newer appliances all stay with the home. There's also great additional storage out back in the shed, which would also make a great work space. This property is being sold AS IS.

17. 2025-08-25
    price $95,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VT · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $259 · $22/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $937 · $78/mo
• Expected delta: +$678/yr (+$56/mo · 261.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥89°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,231
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,761
• − Property taxes: −$259
• − Insurance: −$425
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,698
• − Management: −$1,698
• − HOA: −$5,820
• − Depreciation: −$2,473
• Taxable income: $4,096
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$983
• After-tax cash flow: $3,936/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

No district data.

Livability — Hinesburg

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #54
• US rank: #12285

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment D+ Housing B Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,815

Population outlook (Chittenden County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 170,769 people
• By 2030: 174,716 · +2.3%
• By 2040: 180,337 · +5.6%
• By 2050: 183,768 · +7.6%
• By 2075: 194,646 · +14.0%
• By 2100: 194,933 · +14.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Romanian 4% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Indo-European 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chittenden

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+53.6) · D 75.4% · R 21.7% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.9pp toward D · 2008: 44.8pp · 2024: 53.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+53.6 2020: D+54.5 2016: D+46.8 2012: D+41.9 2008: D+44.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -93.22%
• Current HPI: 193.1768
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

-10.5% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-23 Listed $85,000 PrimeMLS
• 2025-08-25 Price Changed $95,000 PrimeMLS

Property tax history

+17.9%/yr

Latest (2024): $259 · +20.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.