3815 Spence St · Dallas, TX 75215

$223,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 76 Days on market

Built 2020 6,011 sqft lot Est $153k · 46% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.1/30.0
• Appreciation +5.4/10.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.3/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

MLS# 14331416 - Built by Ameritex Homes - July completion! ~ 3 bedrooms; 2 bathrooms; two motion exterior floodlights; low E insulated glass windows with screens; weather stripping on all exterior doors; smooth two square 6ft interior doors; 3.25 in baseboard moulding; 30in flat panel kitchen cabinets; vinyl flooring; 50-gallon electric water heater; programmable smart thermostat; keyless smart locks; granite countertops; microwave; electric range; energy-efficient dishwasher; refrigerator; 50-50 stainless steel kitchen sink...

Key facts

• 6,011 sq ft lot
• Built 2020
• Listed 76 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $224k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-314 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $168k (24.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (24.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.6% vs local median 2.3% in Dallas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#24 in TX, #1,380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime F.
• Dallas ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #559 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.2%/yr); 248 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $1,781/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($46k/yr) (locally 1464% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $2k appreciation (0.8% local appreciation)).
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($210k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,386 (24.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.61%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.02%
• DSCR: 0.73
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $153,360
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2332 Poplar St	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,036 (-4%)	1mo	$249,900	$241	72
3826 Spence St	0.04mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-7%)	9mo	$90,000	$89	70
2403 Romine Ave	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,170 (+8%)	2mo	$210,000	$179	66
2321 Greer St	0.43mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,120 (+4%)	5mo	$119,000	$106	62
2244 Jordan St	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,176 (+9%)	9mo	$150,000	$128	62
2506 Southland St	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,080 (0%)	8mo	$185,000	$171	61
3424 Kimble St	0.48mi	3/1.0	1,178 (+9%)	2mo	$150,000	$127	57
2232 Poplar St	0.34mi	3/1.0	1,231 (+14%)	5mo	$90,000	$73	53
2314 Greer St	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,200 (+11%)	10mo	$170,000	$142	52
3716 Dildock St	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-7%)	8mo	$134,900	$134	51
3712 Ruskin St	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,210 (+12%)	4mo	$210,000	$174	41
2535 Pine St	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,237 (+14%)	10mo	$209,500	$169	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.79% appreciation · 7.19% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-10,167
• Equity at exit: $73,989

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.64×
• Total profit: $40,175
• Equity at exit: $96,461

Cash invested: $62,692 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75215

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.2%
• Active inventory: 248
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,781 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,174
• Tax from tax record: −$454 /mo · $5,449/yr
• Insurance: −$93
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $-314

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,179

Max offer price $168,386

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $55,975
• Closing costs: $6,717
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1630 Poplar St Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0	903	$1,400	$1.55	24d	1	0.18mi
1628 Poplar St Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0	903	$1,400	$1.55	43d	1	0.18mi
3609 Cleveland St Dallas, TX	4.0	2.5	1500	$2,700	$1.80	7d	1	0.29mi
3501 Latimer St Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0	1008	$1,095	$1.09	3d	1	0.60mi
3711 Guaranty St Dallas, TX	3.0	1.0	984	$1,800	$1.83	15d	1	0.69mi
2513 Southland St Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0	1010	$1,299	$1.29	3d	1	0.71mi
2513 Southland St Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0	1010	$1,399	$1.39	20d	1	0.71mi
4024 Myrtle St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1106	$1,595	$1.44	5d	1	0.77mi
2561 Elsie Faye Heggins St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	876	$1,390	$1.59	6d	1	0.79mi
2563 Elsie Faye Heggins St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	876	$1,240	$1.42	15d	1	0.79mi
2603 Elsie Faye Heggins St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	876	$1,385	$1.58	43d	1	0.80mi
2615 Elsie Faye Heggins St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	876	$1,280	$1.46	15d	1	0.81mi
2627 Elsie Faye Heggins St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	876	$1,280	$1.46	43d	1	0.82mi
2822 McDermott Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1200	$1,795	$1.50	24d	1	0.86mi
2847 Metropolitan Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	1.0	1344	$2,050	$1.53	22d	1	0.93mi
2207 Anderson St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	1419	$2,300	$1.62	7d	1	0.98mi
2203 Anderson St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.5	1219	$2,200	$1.80	43d	1	0.98mi
5000 Linder Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1327	$1,950	$1.47	43d	1	1.08mi
2216 Dyson St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1056	$2,100	$1.99	24d	1	1.14mi
2642 Anderson St Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0	820	$1,150	$1.40	24d	1	1.15mi
3907 Roberts Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	1.0	908	$1,395	$1.54	15d	1	1.16mi
3915 Coolidge St Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1416	$2,100	$1.48	43d	1	1.21mi
2829 Oakdale St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1028	$1,840	$1.79	7d	1	1.23mi
2840 Oakdale St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1379	$1,900	$1.38	43d	1	1.27mi
4722 Meadow St Dallas, TX	2.0–3.0	2.0	1107	$1,475	$1.33	11d	4	1.31mi
4503 Bradshaw St Dallas, TX	4.0	2.0	1263	$1,600	$1.27	7d	1	1.31mi
2838 Frost Ave Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0	1200	$1,400	$1.17	24d	1	1.31mi
2080 Kelly Ave Unit 109 Dallas, TX	2.0	2.5	1164	$2,595	$2.23	43d	1	1.33mi
4611 Bradshaw St Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1145	$1,550	$1.35	24d	1	1.34mi
1100 Corinth St Dallas, TX	2.0–3.0	2.5–3.5	1572	$3,595	$2.29	43d	10	1.34mi
2020 S Ervay St Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	821	$2,325	$2.83	3d	54	1.35mi
2016 S Ervay St Unit B1 Dallas, TX	2.0	2.0	1102	$2,225	$2.02	43d	1	1.35mi
3308 Birmingham Ave Unit 7 Dallas, TX	2.0	2.5	1287	$2,125	$1.65	15d	1	1.36mi
3308 Birmingham Ave Unit 03 Dallas, TX	2.0	2.5	1451	$2,275	$1.57	43d	1	1.36mi
3308 Birmingham Ave Unit 1 Dallas, TX	2.0	2.5	1451	$2,275	$1.57	24d	1	1.36mi
3308 Birmingham Ave Unit 6 Dallas, TX	2.0	2.5	1341	$2,175	$1.62	17d	1	1.36mi
3408 Spring Ave Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	780	$1,340	$1.72	6d	1	1.37mi
948 Corinth St Unit 10 Dallas, TX	2.0	2.0	920	$1,525	$1.66	15d	1	1.40mi
948 Corinth St Unit 11 Dallas, TX	2.0	2.0	1013	$1,595	$1.57	15d	1	1.40mi
948 Corinth St Unit 15 Dallas, TX	2.0	2.0	920	$1,495	$1.62	15d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-04-06
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-03
   price $223,900
3. 2026-03-02
   price $226,700
4. 2026-02-21
   price $226,800
5. 2026-01-29
   price $226,900
6. 2026-01-20
   listed $229,900 Active
7. 2026-01-20
   soldstatus
8. 2020-07-30
   soldstatus Sold 533-char remark

   Show marketing remark (533 chars)

   MLS# 14331416 - Built by Ameritex Homes - July completion! ~ 3 bedrooms; 2 bathrooms; two motion exterior floodlights; low E insulated glass windows with screens; weather stripping on all exterior doors; smooth two square 6ft interior doors; 3.25 in baseboard moulding; 30in flat panel kitchen cabinets; vinyl flooring; 50-gallon electric water heater; programmable smart thermostat; keyless smart locks; granite countertops; microwave; electric range; energy-efficient dishwasher; refrigerator; 50-50 stainless steel kitchen sink...

9. 2020-05-29
   status Pending 533-char remark

   Show marketing remark (533 chars)

   MLS# 14331416 - Built by Ameritex Homes - July completion! ~ 3 bedrooms; 2 bathrooms; two motion exterior floodlights; low E insulated glass windows with screens; weather stripping on all exterior doors; smooth two square 6ft interior doors; 3.25 in baseboard moulding; 30in flat panel kitchen cabinets; vinyl flooring; 50-gallon electric water heater; programmable smart thermostat; keyless smart locks; granite countertops; microwave; electric range; energy-efficient dishwasher; refrigerator; 50-50 stainless steel kitchen sink...

10. 2020-05-07
    price $153,990 533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    MLS# 14331416 - Built by Ameritex Homes - July completion! ~ 3 bedrooms; 2 bathrooms; two motion exterior floodlights; low E insulated glass windows with screens; weather stripping on all exterior doors; smooth two square 6ft interior doors; 3.25 in baseboard moulding; 30in flat panel kitchen cabinets; vinyl flooring; 50-gallon electric water heater; programmable smart thermostat; keyless smart locks; granite countertops; microwave; electric range; energy-efficient dishwasher; refrigerator; 50-50 stainless steel kitchen sink...

11. 2020-04-29
    listed $149,990 Active 533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    MLS# 14331416 - Built by Ameritex Homes - July completion! ~ 3 bedrooms; 2 bathrooms; two motion exterior floodlights; low E insulated glass windows with screens; weather stripping on all exterior doors; smooth two square 6ft interior doors; 3.25 in baseboard moulding; 30in flat panel kitchen cabinets; vinyl flooring; 50-gallon electric water heater; programmable smart thermostat; keyless smart locks; granite countertops; microwave; electric range; energy-efficient dishwasher; refrigerator; 50-50 stainless steel kitchen sink...

12. 2019-10-15
    soldstatus Sold 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    Residential lot. Can be sold individually or with 3610 Colonial, 3628 Colonial, 3823 Colonial, 3833 Colonial and 3525 Wendelkin. Close to Downtown Dallas and Fair Park. A lot of new construction in the area. Buyer and Buyer's agent to verify all info.

13. 2019-10-15
    soldstatus

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    Residential lot. Can be sold individually or with 3610 Colonial, 3628 Colonial, 3823 Colonial, 3833 Colonial and 3525 Wendelkin. Close to Downtown Dallas and Fair Park. A lot of new construction in the area. Buyer and Buyer's agent to verify all info.

14. 2019-09-19
    status Pending 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    Residential lot. Can be sold individually or with 3610 Colonial, 3628 Colonial, 3823 Colonial, 3833 Colonial and 3525 Wendelkin. Close to Downtown Dallas and Fair Park. A lot of new construction in the area. Buyer and Buyer's agent to verify all info.

15. 2019-09-16
    listed $25,000 Active 251-char remark

    Show marketing remark (251 chars)

    Residential lot. Can be sold individually or with 3610 Colonial, 3628 Colonial, 3823 Colonial, 3833 Colonial and 3525 Wendelkin. Close to Downtown Dallas and Fair Park. A lot of new construction in the area. Buyer and Buyer's agent to verify all info.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,449 · $454/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,449 · $454/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,376
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,542
• − Property taxes: −$5,449
• − Insurance: −$1,120
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,710
• − Management: −$1,710
• − Depreciation: −$6,513
• Taxable loss: −$7,668
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,840
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,931/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,881
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6763
• State rank: #559 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dallas

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #1380

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dallas, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 1,168,437
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,895
• Household income: $45,557
• Rent vs Own: 61.8% rent · 38.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1464.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% Hispanic / Latino 25% White 11% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 21%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Hispanic 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 26%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.79%
• Current HPI: 224.2955
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.19%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+795.6% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-03 Price Changed $223,900 NTREIS
• 2026-03-02 Price Changed $226,700 NTREIS
• 2026-02-21 Price Changed $226,800 NTREIS
• 2026-01-29 Price Changed $226,900 NTREIS
• 2026-01-20 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2026-01-20 Listed $229,900 NTREIS
• 2020-07-30 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2020-05-29 Pending — NTREIS
• 2020-05-07 Price Changed $153,990 NTREIS
• 2020-04-29 Listed $149,990 NTREIS
• 2019-10-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2019-10-15 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2019-09-19 Pending — NTREIS
• 2019-09-16 Listed $25,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+25.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,449 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.