31242 Harp Ridge Dr · Katy, TX 77441

$317,990

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,778 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $379k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.7/15.0
• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• Schools +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

The property is located at 31242 Harp Ridge Drive FULSHEAR TX 77441 priced at 317990, the square foot and stories are 1778, 1.The number of bath is 2, halfbath is 0 there are 4 bedrooms and 2 garages. For more details please, call or email.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $317,990

Exterior

• Parking: 2 total parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Home design: Single-family residence
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,778

Interior

• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: Spec home, GAVEN plan

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $318k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-14 ($-174/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $316k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $276k (13.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $276k (13.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.0% in Katy — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#111 in TX, #3,613 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, amenities D, commute F.
• Lamar CISD (suburban): math 50% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #116 of 826 in TX (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Huggins El (math 61% / reading 63%, grade B, #321 of 4,322 statewide, top 8%, 893 students, 23% FRL); Briscoe J H (math 59% / reading 60%, grade B, #166 of 1,662 statewide, top 11%, 1,914 students, 38% FRL); Foster H S (math 64% / reading 74%, grade B, #141 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 2,388 students, 34% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 64% at this address vs 52% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Lamar CISD average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1242 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 12,093 units permitted in Fort Bend County in 2024 (815 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 18% of the median local income ($184k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fort Bend County population projected at +75% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $276,339 (13.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.24%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.20%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $378,714
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2914 Sunrise Field Ln	0.36mi	4/3.0	1,736 (-2%)	0mo	$359,900	$207	75
31266 Whistledown Ln	0.54mi	4/2.0	1,748 (-2%)	1mo	$309,990	$177	71
30906 Evening Skye Dr	0.52mi	4/3.0	1,785 (+0%)	2mo	$379,900	$213	69
31842 Blossom Ln	0.40mi	4/2.0	1,908 (+7%)	2mo	$378,990	$199	67
2826 Sunrise Field Ln	0.39mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,697 (-5%)	2mo	$389,965	$230	67
31007 Star Gazer Rd	0.41mi	4/3.0	1,878 (+6%)	1mo	$389,900	$208	67
31014 Evening Skye Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,702 (-4%)	2mo	$374,890	$220	66
2702 Sunrise Field Ln	0.56mi	4/3.0	1,736 (-2%)	0mo	$410,900	$237	66
30935 Breezy Way	0.45mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,722 (-3%)	1mo	$379,900	$221	66
30927 Breezy Way	0.47mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,683 (-5%)	2mo	$359,990	$214	63
2911 Orange Leaf Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,683 (-5%)	1mo	$354,990	$211	60
3546 Blueberry Thistle Ln	0.70mi	4/3.0	2,042 (+15%)	1mo	$334,990	$164	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-60,507
• Equity at exit: $47,413

10-year hold

• IRR: -21.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.05×
• Total profit: $-85,004
• Equity at exit: $27,494

Cash invested: $89,037 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77441

• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1242
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,763 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,668
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$397 /mo · $4,770/yr
• Insurance: −$132
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$580
• Net cashflow: $-14

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,782

Max offer price $315,895

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $205	-5% $95	+0% $-14	+5% $-124	+10% $-234
Rent	-10% $-233	-5% $-124	+0% $-14	+5% $95	+10% $204
Rate	-1.0pp $146	-0.5pp $66	base $-14	+0.5pp $-97	+1.0pp $-181

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $79,498
• Closing costs: $9,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
30375 Centipede Grove Ln Brookshire, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,900	$1.21	45d	1	0.98mi
3714 Sloane Peak Ln Fulshear, TX	3.0–4.0	2.0–2.5	1713	$2,397	$1.40	0d	24	1.03mi
31123 Brightwell Bnd Fulshear, TX	4.0	3.0	2400	$2,400	$1.00	14d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-21
   remarks 240-char remark
2. 2026-06-21
   listed $317,990 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,161
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,812
• − Property taxes: −$4,770
• − Insurance: −$1,590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,653
• − Management: −$2,653
• − Depreciation: −$9,251
• Taxable loss: −$5,568
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,336
• After-tax cash flow: $1,163/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lamar CISD
• NCES district ID: 4826580
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $75,213
• Composite: 46.43/100
• National rank: #2452
• State rank: #116 of 826 in TX

Livability — Katy

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #111
• US rank: #3613

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Fort Bend County · 836,777 people
• City population: 413,575
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 41,324
• Household income: $184,390
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 301.0

Population outlook (Fort Bend County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,004,526 people
• By 2030: 1,153,104 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 1,453,718 · +44.7%
• By 2050: 1,753,781 · +74.6%
• By 2075: 2,455,772 · +144.5%
• By 2100: 2,930,528 · +191.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Hispanic / Latino 20% Two or more races 15% Asian 12% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 5% Romanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 26% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 68% English-only · Spanish 17% German/W. Germanic 4% Chinese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Fort Bend

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 49.5% · R 47.9% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.0pp toward D · 2008: -2.4pp · 2024: 1.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.6 2020: D+10.6 2016: D+6.6 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.74%
• Current HPI: 275.8798
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.63%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B