The Pine Crest Plan · Alafaya, FL 32862

$79,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · SingleFamily · 237 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.2/10.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks

COMING SOON - Brand New Home in Orlando, FL! Currently under construction, this beautifully designed 3-bedroom, 2-bath, 924 sq. ft. home offers modern comfort with an open floor plan where the living room flows seamlessly into the kitchen-perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The primary bedroom features a private ensuite, spacious closet, and well-appointed bathroom, while the additional bedrooms provide flexible space for an office, gym, guest room, kids' room, or extra storage. Located in vibrant Orlando, you'll enjoy easy access to shopping, dining, entertainment, and major highways. Buy before the home is delivered and receive 5% off-this limited-time opportunity won't last!

Key facts

• Listed 237 days

🏗️ New construction. The $79,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $178,337.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $80k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $488 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $70k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.6% vs local median 3.4% in Alafaya — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#60 in FL, #1,076 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: cost of living C-.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Castle Creek Elementary (math 45% / reading 46%, grade D-, #1,247 of 2,144 statewide, top 59%, 560 students, 64% FRL); Avalon Middle (math 70% / reading 69%, grade A, #66 of 571 statewide, top 12%, 911 students, 29% FRL); East River High (math 27% / reading 47%, grade F, #340 of 667 statewide, top 52%, 2,050 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $7k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $5k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 237 days — a 12% lower offer ($70k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $70,312 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 237 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.22% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.74%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $178,337
• List price: $79,900
• Delta: -55.20%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2935 Colorado Ave	1.81mi	3/1.5	891 (-4%)	6mo	$290,000	$325	52
13953 Fox Meadow Dr	1.66mi	2/1.0 (-1)	963 (+4%)	0mo	$272,000	$282	49
2943 Slippery Rock Ave	1.70mi	3/1.0	904 (-2%)	14mo	$310,000	$343	46
2718 Hilda Ct	1.79mi	2/1.0 (-1)	884 (-4%)	11mo	$280,000	$317	40
1920 Bonneville Dr	1.73mi	3/2.0	1,040 (+13%)	8mo	$300,000	$288	38
2912 Talladega Dr	1.72mi	3/2.0	1,181 (+28%)	6mo	$359,900	$305	35
13947 Lena St	1.70mi	3/2.0	1,110 (+20%)	7mo	$315,000	$284	34
13927 Countryplace Dr	1.67mi	3/2.0	1,092 (+18%)	8mo	$320,000	$293	33
1814 Annapolis Ave #3	1.63mi	2/1.5 (-1)	840 (-9%)	14mo	$25,000	$30	31
2948 Talladega Dr	1.68mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,181 (+28%)	6mo	$352,000	$298	30
2729 Hilda Ct	1.78mi	3/2.0	1,184 (+28%)	16mo	$380,000	$321	27
2743 Nattie Ct	1.74mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,067 (+16%)	13mo	$305,000	$286	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.05×
• Total profit: $52,623
• Equity at exit: $80,188

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.88×
• Total profit: $143,810
• Equity at exit: $123,579

Cash invested: $49,934 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 6 active
• Median asking: $73,400 ($92/sqft)
• Median days on market: 1 d
• This list price: 67% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +110.1% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 32862

• Active inventory: 2
• Price-to-rent: 3.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,178 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$935
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$223 /mo · $2,675/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$457
• Net cashflow: $488

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,560

Max offer price $178,337

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $612	-5% $550	+0% $488	+5% $427	+10% $365
Rent	-10% $316	-5% $402	+0% $488	+5% $574	+10% $660
Rate	-1.0pp $578	-0.5pp $534	base $488	+0.5pp $442	+1.0pp $395

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,584
• Closing costs: $5,350
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
525 Loyola Cir Orlando, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1400	$2,966	$2.12	0d	53	0.61mi
14175 Bent Tree Ct Orlando, FL	2.0	2.0	937	$1,650	$1.76	10d	1	0.91mi
1683 Fricke Ave Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,850	$1.71	10d	1	1.00mi

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $79,900

Exterior

• Home design: New construction planModel/Plan name: The Pine Crest
• Construction: Living area approximately 924
• Exterior features: Address: 15070 E Colonial Dr, Orlando FL 32862East-facing (street prefix E)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: The Pine Crest

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $79,900 Active 237 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $79,900 Active 236 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $79,900 Active 235 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $79,900 Active 234 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $79,900 Active 233 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $79,900 Active 232 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $79,900 Active 231 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $79,900 Active 230 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $79,900 Active 229 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $79,900 Active 228 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $79,900 Active 227 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $79,900 Active 226 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $79,900 Active 225 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 219 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 218 DOM
16. 2026-08-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 214 DOM
17. 2026-08-29
    days on market $79,900 Active 212 DOM
18. 2026-08-28
    days on market $79,900 Active 211 DOM
19. 2026-08-27
    days on market $79,900 Active 210 DOM
20. 2026-08-25
    days on market $79,900 Active 208 DOM
21. 2026-08-23
    days on market $79,900 Active 206 DOM
22. 2026-08-22
    days on market $79,900 Active 205 DOM
23. 2026-08-21
    days on market $79,900 Active 204 DOM
24. 2026-08-20
    days on market $79,900 Active 203 DOM
25. 2026-08-19
    days on market $79,900 Active 202 DOM
26. 2026-08-18
    days on market $79,900 Active 201 DOM
27. 2026-08-17
    days on market $79,900 Active 200 DOM
28. 2026-08-16
    days on market $79,900 Active 199 DOM
29. 2026-08-15
    days on market $79,900 Active 198 DOM
30. 2026-08-14
    days on market $79,900 Active 197 DOM
31. 2026-08-13
    days on market $79,900 Active 196 DOM
32. 2026-08-12
    days on market $79,900 Active 195 DOM
33. 2026-08-11
    days on market $79,900 Active 194 DOM
34. 2026-08-10
    days on market $79,900 Active 193 DOM
35. 2026-08-09
    days on market $79,900 Active 192 DOM
36. 2026-08-08
    days on market $79,900 Active 191 DOM
37. 2026-08-06
    days on market $79,900 Active 189 DOM
38. 2026-08-05
    days on market $79,900 Active 188 DOM
39. 2026-08-04
    days on market $79,900 Active 187 DOM
40. 2026-08-03
    days on market $79,900 Active 186 DOM
41. 2026-07-31
    days on market $79,900 Active 183 DOM
42. 2026-07-30
    days on market $79,900 Active 181 DOM
43. 2026-07-28
    days on market $79,900 Active 180 DOM
44. 2026-07-26
    days on market $79,900 Active 178 DOM
45. 2026-07-23
    days on market $79,900 Active 175 DOM
46. 2026-07-22
    days on market $79,900 Active 174 DOM
47. 2026-07-21
    days on market $79,900 Active 173 DOM
48. 2026-07-20
    days on market $79,900 Active 172 DOM
49. 2026-07-18
    days on market $79,900 Active 170 DOM
50. 2026-07-16
    days on market $79,900 Active 168 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,139
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,990
• − Property taxes: −$2,675
• − Insurance: −$892
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,091
• − Management: −$2,091
• − Depreciation: −$5,188
• Taxable income: $3,213
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$771
• After-tax cash flow: $5,090/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 2 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab Est. rehab $46,200–$83,160 screening

This property requires extensive repairs and maintenance, including a new roof, exterior siding repair, and landscaping. Significant improvements are needed to increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major roof — The roof is missing shingles or damaged
• Major exterior siding — The exterior siding is in poor condition
• Major landscaping — The landscaping is sparse and overgrown

Value-add opportunities

• Resale roof replacement — A new roof will significantly improve the home's appearance and value ↑
• Resale exterior siding repair — Repairing the siding will enhance the home's curb appeal and value ↑
• Both landscaping — A well-maintained landscape will improve both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Extensive scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 51/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Castle Creek Elementary D- FL #1,247/2,144 Nat'l #15,746/41,679 Middle Avalon Middle A FL #66/571 Nat'l #858/14,009 High East River High F FL #340/667 Nat'l #9,001/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

A Composite livability gradescore 82/100

Livability — Alafaya

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #60
• US rank: #1076

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute B+ Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alafaya, FL

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Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Not yet ingested

• Political lean: —
• Race & ethnicity: —
• Common origin: —
• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: List price $79,900

Exterior

• Home design: New construction planModel/Plan name: The Pine Crest
• Construction: Living area approximately 924
• Exterior features: Address: 15070 E Colonial Dr, Orlando FL 32862East-facing (street prefix E)

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms
• Interior features: Plan: The Pine Crest