5830 Robin Hill Dr #30 · North Lakeport, CA 95453

$97,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,400 sqft · Land · 202 Days on market

Built 1999 27 ac lot $69/sqft · at area comps Est $101k · at est. $800/mo HOA · 40% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.7/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• DSCR +7.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spend your time sitting on the front porch surrounded by the lake and mountains of Lake County. This three bed, two bath, living and dining room, well apointed kitchen with laundry home is quiet and comfortable. There is a convient storage shed off the carport. This home is light, bright and airy. There is access to the club pool, pier, dock and boat launch. Enjoy everything that a senior community offers. Park approval and application required.

Key facts

• Mountains
• Pier
• Club pool

Tags

• FRONT PORCH
• LAKE
• MOUNTAINS
• STORAGE SHED
• CLUB POOL
• PIER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $97k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $167 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $97k).
• Recommended offer: $85k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.4% vs local median 2.7% in North Lakeport — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#808 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Lakeport Unified (town): math 13% / reading 30% proficiency, ranked #451 of 517 in CA (top 87%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 148 active listings in the ZIP; 107 units permitted in Lake County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $671 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lake County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 202 days — a 12% lower offer ($85k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 7y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $55k; list at $97k implies a 76% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 40% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→9/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $85,360 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 202 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
7. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
8. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.35%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.36%
• DSCR: 1.33
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $101,068
• List price: $97,000
• Delta: -4.03%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.83×
• Total profit: $-4,629
• Equity at exit: $14,463

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.43×
• Total profit: $11,574
• Equity at exit: $8,387

Cash invested: $27,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95453

• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,981 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$509
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $594/yr
• Insurance: −$40
• HOA: −$800
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $167

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,770

Max offer price $97,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,250
• Closing costs: $2,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $800 · $9,600/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $97,000 Active 202 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $97,000 Active 201 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $97,000 Active 200 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $97,000 Active 199 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $97,000 Active 198 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $97,000 Active 196 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $97,000 Active 195 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $97,000 Active 192 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $97,000 Active 191 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $97,000 Active 190 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $97,000 Active 187 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $97,000 Active 186 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $97,000 Active 185 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $97,000 Active 184 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $97,000 Active 183 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $97,000 Active 182 DOM
17. 2026-04-24
    status Active 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Spend your time sitting on the front porch surrounded by the lake and mountains of Lake County. This three bed, two bath, living and dining room, well apointed kitchen with laundry home is quiet and comfortable. There is a convient storage shed off the carport. This home is light, bright and airy. There is access to the club pool, pier, dock and boat launch. Enjoy everything that a senior community offers. Park approval and application required.

18. 2026-04-17
    status Pending Sale 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Spend your time sitting on the front porch surrounded by the lake and mountains of Lake County. This three bed, two bath, living and dining room, well apointed kitchen with laundry home is quiet and comfortable. There is a convient storage shed off the carport. This home is light, bright and airy. There is access to the club pool, pier, dock and boat launch. Enjoy everything that a senior community offers. Park approval and application required.

19. 2025-12-04
    price $97,000 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Spend your time sitting on the front porch surrounded by the lake and mountains of Lake County. This three bed, two bath, living and dining room, well apointed kitchen with laundry home is quiet and comfortable. There is a convient storage shed off the carport. This home is light, bright and airy. There is access to the club pool, pier, dock and boat launch. Enjoy everything that a senior community offers. Park approval and application required.

20. 2025-10-17
    listed $102,000 Active 449-char remark

    Show marketing remark (449 chars)

    Spend your time sitting on the front porch surrounded by the lake and mountains of Lake County. This three bed, two bath, living and dining room, well apointed kitchen with laundry home is quiet and comfortable. There is a convient storage shed off the carport. This home is light, bright and airy. There is access to the club pool, pier, dock and boat launch. Enjoy everything that a senior community offers. Park approval and application required.

21. 2020-03-19
    soldstatus $55,000 Closed Sale 765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    Nice double wide mobile home with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. Enter the home from both sides. The kitchen is open and bright. Laundry area with washer and dryer hook-ups. The living room is roomy and has a ceiling fan. The front features a deck from end to end allowing you plenty of space for patio furniture. The mobile home space is fenced on both sides. The bedrooms are spacious; one bedroom has double entry doors; making it easy for large furniture and/or items to pass through. The master bedroom features a very spacious bathroom with shower stall and large tub to sink into and enjoy a nice peaceful bath. There's a storage shed, too for your extras. Mobile home park is clean and well maintained. There's a community pool close by to cool off in the summers.

22. 2020-03-02
    historical Active Under Contract 765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    Nice double wide mobile home with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. Enter the home from both sides. The kitchen is open and bright. Laundry area with washer and dryer hook-ups. The living room is roomy and has a ceiling fan. The front features a deck from end to end allowing you plenty of space for patio furniture. The mobile home space is fenced on both sides. The bedrooms are spacious; one bedroom has double entry doors; making it easy for large furniture and/or items to pass through. The master bedroom features a very spacious bathroom with shower stall and large tub to sink into and enjoy a nice peaceful bath. There's a storage shed, too for your extras. Mobile home park is clean and well maintained. There's a community pool close by to cool off in the summers.

23. 2019-11-04
    price $65,000 765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    Nice double wide mobile home with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. Enter the home from both sides. The kitchen is open and bright. Laundry area with washer and dryer hook-ups. The living room is roomy and has a ceiling fan. The front features a deck from end to end allowing you plenty of space for patio furniture. The mobile home space is fenced on both sides. The bedrooms are spacious; one bedroom has double entry doors; making it easy for large furniture and/or items to pass through. The master bedroom features a very spacious bathroom with shower stall and large tub to sink into and enjoy a nice peaceful bath. There's a storage shed, too for your extras. Mobile home park is clean and well maintained. There's a community pool close by to cool off in the summers.

24. 2019-09-17
    listed $68,000 Active 765-char remark

    Show marketing remark (765 chars)

    Nice double wide mobile home with 3 bedrooms and 2 baths. Enter the home from both sides. The kitchen is open and bright. Laundry area with washer and dryer hook-ups. The living room is roomy and has a ceiling fan. The front features a deck from end to end allowing you plenty of space for patio furniture. The mobile home space is fenced on both sides. The bedrooms are spacious; one bedroom has double entry doors; making it easy for large furniture and/or items to pass through. The master bedroom features a very spacious bathroom with shower stall and large tub to sink into and enjoy a nice peaceful bath. There's a storage shed, too for your extras. Mobile home park is clean and well maintained. There's a community pool close by to cool off in the summers.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $594 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $737 · $61/mo
• Expected delta: +$143/yr (+$12/mo · 24.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 5 d/yr ≥101°F today · 9 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,775
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,434
• − Property taxes: −$594
• − Insurance: −$485
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,902
• − Management: −$1,902
• − HOA: −$9,600
• − Depreciation: −$2,822
• Taxable income: $1,037
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$249
• After-tax cash flow: $1,751/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakeport Unified
• NCES district ID: 0620670
• Math proficiency: 13% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 30% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $44,332
• Composite: 18.55/100
• National rank: #8912
• State rank: #451 of 517 in CA

Livability — North Lakeport

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #808
• US rank: #22865

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Lakeport, CA
• County: Lake County · 24,333 people
• City population: 11,741
• Metro: Clearlake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 11,741
• Household income: $71,419
• Rent vs Own: 21.8% rent · 78.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 250.0

Population outlook (Lake County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 62,396 people
• By 2030: 60,626 · -2.8%
• By 2040: 56,453 · -9.5%
• By 2050: 53,054 · -15.0%
• By 2075: 47,663 · -23.6%
• By 2100: 41,804 · -33.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Native American 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lake

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 49.2% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 19.3pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+6.3 2016: D+3.7 2012: D+16.5 2008: D+19.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.01%
• Current HPI: 155.5391
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Clearlake, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+42.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Relisted — CRMLS
• 2026-04-17 Pending — CRMLS
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $97,000 CRMLS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $102,000 CRMLS
• 2020-03-19 Sold (MLS) $55,000 CRMLS
• 2020-03-02 Contingent — CRMLS
• 2019-11-04 Price Changed $65,000 CRMLS
• 2019-09-17 Listed $68,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $594 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.