4555 S Mission Rd #591 · Tucson, AZ 85746

$35,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 595 sqft · Manufactured · 130 Days on market

Built 1989 Fair condition 436 sqft lot Est $33k · 5% over ↓ 56% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +5.2/15.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Elegantly updated 1 bed/1 bath +den home in a gated, active, age restricted & pet‑friendly community offering resort style amenities. This beautifully maintained residence blends comfort & sophistication w/ double pane windows, top-down blackout shades, built in cabinetry, a tankless water heater, water softener, & reverse osmosis in the kitchen. The home has an inviting entrance foyer, den & open living areas create flexible spaces for relaxing, working, or hosting. The kitchen opens seamlessly into the living room, where the space has been plumbed for a future gas fireplace. Outside, enjoy a charming front covered patio, perfect for morning coffee & easy conversations while the private back deck offers a quiet retreat for unwinding. Low care landscaping includes 18x18 pavers, thoughtfully placed planters & pond which enhance the outdoor living experience. The attached insulated shed doubles as stoarge and a convenient laundry room. Community amenities include a pool, spa, pickleball, shuffleboard, athletic facilities, numerous craft and project rooms, a vibrant social scene, and so much more. Buyers must qualify with the community.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Double pane windows
• Built in cabinetry

Tags

• GATED COMMUNITY
• PET FRIENDLY COMMUNITY
• RESORT STYLE AMENITIES
• DOUBLE PANE WINDOWS
• TOP DOWN BLACKOUT SHADES
• BUILT IN CABINETRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $431 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($851 rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.1% vs local median 3.7% in Tucson — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#17 in AZ, #4,502 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools D+, crime F.
• Tucson Unified District (4403) (urban): math 14% / reading 23% proficiency, ranked #190 of 249 in AZ (top 76%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 148 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,268 units permitted in Pima County in 2024 (996 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pima County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 130 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 130 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.43% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.06%
• Cash-on-cash: 52.75%
• DSCR: 3.35
• GRM: 3.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $33,320
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4555 S Mission Rd SW Unit J343	0.07mi	1/1.0	568 (-4%)	14mo	$32,000	$56	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 47.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $19,284
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 51.7%
• Equity multiple: 5.34×
• Total profit: $42,531
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85746

• Home prices YoY: -15.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 148
• Price-to-rent: 3.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $851 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$179
• Net cashflow: $431

Break-even live

Break-even rent $306

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 44%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1502 W Ajo Way Tucson, AZ	1.0–2.0	1.0	713	$768	$1.08	3d	4	0.87mi
1310 W Ajo Way Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	410	$738	$1.80	2d	5	0.93mi
1240 W Ajo Way Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	530	$748	$1.41	3d	7	0.96mi
2040 W Nebraska St Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	700	$995	$1.42	43d	1	0.98mi
5600 S Midvale Park Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	787	$825	$1.05	1d	12	1.15mi
5505 S Mission Rd Tucson, AZ	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.0	949	$775	$0.82	1d	29	1.19mi
4904 S 13th Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	750	$895	$1.19	3d	1	1.19mi
851 W Ajo Way Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	500	$695	$1.39	21d	1	1.24mi
329 W Kentucky St Unit Kentucky 329-7 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	550	$695	$1.26	16d	1	1.43mi
329 W Kentucky St Unit Kentucky 329-12 Tucson, AZ	—	1.0	500	$550	$1.10	23d	1	1.44mi
425 W Columbia St Unit 2 Tucson, AZ	1.0	1.0	440	$700	$1.59	43d	1	1.45mi
3601 S 16th Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	523	$838	$1.60	43d	1	1.47mi
4842 S Liberty Ave Tucson, AZ	2.0	1.0	700	$1,175	$1.68	16d	1	1.48mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 130 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 129 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 128 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 127 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 125 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $35,000 Active 122 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 121 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $35,000 Active 120 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $35,000 Active 119 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $35,000 Active 116 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,000 Active 115 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 114 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 113 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 112 DOM
15. 2026-04-21
    price $35,000 1181-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1181 chars)

    Elegantly updated 1 bed/1 bath +den home in a gated, active, age restricted & pet‑friendly community offering resort style amenities. This beautifully maintained residence blends comfort & sophistication w/ double pane windows, top-down blackout shades, built in cabinetry, a tankless water heater, water softener, & reverse osmosis in the kitchen. The home has an inviting entrance foyer, den & open living areas create flexible spaces for relaxing, working, or hosting. The kitchen opens seamlessly into the living room, where the space has been plumbed for a future gas fireplace. Outside, enjoy a charming front covered patio, perfect for morning coffee & easy conversations while the private back deck offers a quiet retreat for unwinding. Low care landscaping includes 18x18 pavers, thoughtfully placed planters & pond which enhance the outdoor living experience. The attached insulated shed doubles as stoarge and a convenient laundry room. Community amenities include a pool, spa, pickleball, shuffleboard, athletic facilities, numerous craft and project rooms, a vibrant social scene, and so much more. Buyers must qualify with the community.

16. 2026-04-07
    price $75,000 1181-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1181 chars)

    Elegantly updated 1 bed/1 bath +den home in a gated, active, age restricted & pet‑friendly community offering resort style amenities. This beautifully maintained residence blends comfort & sophistication w/ double pane windows, top-down blackout shades, built in cabinetry, a tankless water heater, water softener, & reverse osmosis in the kitchen. The home has an inviting entrance foyer, den & open living areas create flexible spaces for relaxing, working, or hosting. The kitchen opens seamlessly into the living room, where the space has been plumbed for a future gas fireplace. Outside, enjoy a charming front covered patio, perfect for morning coffee & easy conversations while the private back deck offers a quiet retreat for unwinding. Low care landscaping includes 18x18 pavers, thoughtfully placed planters & pond which enhance the outdoor living experience. The attached insulated shed doubles as stoarge and a convenient laundry room. Community amenities include a pool, spa, pickleball, shuffleboard, athletic facilities, numerous craft and project rooms, a vibrant social scene, and so much more. Buyers must qualify with the community.

17. 2026-02-08
    listed $80,000 Active 1181-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1181 chars)

    Elegantly updated 1 bed/1 bath +den home in a gated, active, age restricted & pet‑friendly community offering resort style amenities. This beautifully maintained residence blends comfort & sophistication w/ double pane windows, top-down blackout shades, built in cabinetry, a tankless water heater, water softener, & reverse osmosis in the kitchen. The home has an inviting entrance foyer, den & open living areas create flexible spaces for relaxing, working, or hosting. The kitchen opens seamlessly into the living room, where the space has been plumbed for a future gas fireplace. Outside, enjoy a charming front covered patio, perfect for morning coffee & easy conversations while the private back deck offers a quiet retreat for unwinding. Low care landscaping includes 18x18 pavers, thoughtfully placed planters & pond which enhance the outdoor living experience. The attached insulated shed doubles as stoarge and a convenient laundry room. Community amenities include a pool, spa, pickleball, shuffleboard, athletic facilities, numerous craft and project rooms, a vibrant social scene, and so much more. Buyers must qualify with the community.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,218
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$817
• − Management: −$817
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $4,904
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,177
• After-tax cash flow: $3,993/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

This home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, particularly to the exterior and bathroom, but has a good kitchen and flooring. Painting the exterior and updating the bathroom fixtures would significantly increase its value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior paint — paint appears faded and needs repainting
• Major bathroom fixtures — basic fixtures, needs updating

Value-add opportunities

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value
• Both update bathroom fixtures — improves functionality and aesthetics

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior paint · paint appears faded and needs repainting	Major	$15,000–50,000
bathroom fixtures · basic fixtures, needs updating	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both paint exterior — enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Both update bathroom fixtures — improves functionality and aesthetics ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tucson Unified District (4403)
• NCES district ID: 0408800
• Math proficiency: 14% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 23% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $40,962
• Composite: 15.78/100
• National rank: #9270
• State rank: #190 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Tucson

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #17
• US rank: #4502

Category grades

Amenities B Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Tucson, AZ
• County: Pima County · 1,012,107 people
• City population: 839,336
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 42,835
• Household income: $68,903
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1050.0

Population outlook (Pima County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,066,056 people
• By 2030: 1,086,684 · +1.9%
• By 2040: 1,117,160 · +4.8%
• By 2050: 1,149,778 · +7.9%
• By 2075: 1,271,480 · +19.3%
• By 2100: 1,321,160 · +23.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 72% White 20% Two or more races 16% Native American 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 68% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada
• Languages at home: 52% English-only · Spanish 46%

Political lean MEDSL · Pima

• 2024 margin: D (+15.2) · D 57.0% · R 41.8% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +9.1pp toward D · 2008: 6.1pp · 2024: 15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+15.2 2020: D+18.7 2016: D+13.5 2012: D+5.8 2008: D+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -56.03%
• Current HPI: 312.2096
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Tucson, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-56.2% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $35,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-04-07 Price Changed $75,000 MLSSAZ
• 2026-02-08 Listed $80,000 MLSSAZ