50 Ballad Ave · Greece, NY 14626

$209,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,786 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1964 0.64 ac lot Est $266k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• 1% rule +5.7/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in a quiet and desirable neighborhood, this four bedroom, two full bathroom home has an open concept that is perfect for entertaining. The lower level is gorgeous with a large family room, a spacious bedroom, and a full bathroom. The walk-out lower level offers convenience to the private, fully fenced back yard. Don't pass this beauty up! Listing Agent is the Owner.

Key facts

• Walk-out lower level
• Open concept
• 0.64 acre lot

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT
• WALK-OUT LOWER LEVEL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-93 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (7.8% below list).
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $193k (7.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.7% in Greece — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#145 in NY, #2,223 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, crime D-.
• Greece Central School District (suburban): math 35% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #544 of 590 in NY (top 92%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 126 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 7 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $210k implies a 133% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.8% of price.

Recommended offer $193,462 (7.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1964 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.07% ✓
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.90%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 7.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $266,114
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
619 Harvest Dr	0.21mi	3/1.5	1,680 (-6%)	6mo	$240,000	$143	73
100 Rusty Ln	0.33mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,725 (-3%)	1mo	$243,000	$141	70
513 Harvest Dr	0.31mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,740 (-3%)	7mo	$260,000	$149	70
159 Charit Way	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,688 (-6%)	8mo	$240,000	$142	66
1143 Long Pond Rd	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,606 (-10%)	1mo	$313,143	$195	65
31 Blue Grass Ln	0.44mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,824 (+2%)	7mo	$242,500	$133	63
146 Frandee Ln	0.59mi	3/1.5	1,736 (-3%)	4mo	$268,000	$154	62
152 Pepperidge Dr	0.66mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,800 (+1%)	2mo	$270,500	$150	60
7 Darby Cir	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,636 (-8%)	6mo	$330,000	$202	59
130 Troutbeck Ln	0.57mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,693 (-5%)	3mo	$179,007	$106	55
60 Cindy Ln	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,528 (-14%)	7mo	$225,000	$147	44
115 Mill Rd	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,979 (+11%)	6mo	$312,000	$158	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -20.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-40,774
• Equity at exit: $31,297

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.21×
• Total profit: $-46,526
• Equity at exit: $18,148

Cash invested: $58,772 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14626

• Home prices YoY: -31.4%
• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 126
• Price-to-rent: 7.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,238 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$673 /mo · $8,071/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$470
• Net cashflow: $-93

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,355

Max offer price $193,462

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $26	-5% $-34	+0% $-93	+5% $-152	+10% $-212
Rent	-10% $-270	-5% $-181	+0% $-93	+5% $-5	+10% $84
Rate	-1.0pp $13	-0.5pp $-40	base $-93	+0.5pp $-147	+1.0pp $-203

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,475
• Closing costs: $6,297
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
102 Goethals Dr Rochester, NY	2.0	2.0	1360	$2,400	$1.76	15d	1	1.01mi
598 Bram Hall Dr Rochester, NY	3.0	2.5	1740	$2,750	$1.58	3d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 18 events

1. 2024-06-24
   status Pending
2. 2024-06-15
   listed $209,900 Active
3. 2019-08-16
   historical
4. 2019-08-10
   price $149,900
5. 2019-08-02
   price $154,900
6. 2019-07-11
   listed $159,900 Active
7. 2016-09-10
   status Pending Sale
8. 2016-09-10
   historical
9. 2016-07-14
   listed $119,900 Active
10. 2016-06-05
    price $119,900
11. 2016-02-08
    price $124,900
12. 2016-02-06
    listed $119,900
13. 2015-12-15
    listed $115,900
14. 2015-11-04
    price $115,900
15. 2015-09-19
    price $119,900
16. 2015-09-07
    listed $115,900
17. 2012-08-07
    listed $134,900
18. 1997-04-02
    soldstatus $90,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $8,071 · $673/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,071 · $673/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,851
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,758
• − Property taxes: −$8,071
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,148
• − Management: −$2,148
• − Depreciation: −$6,106
• Taxable loss: −$4,429
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,063
• After-tax cash flow: $-54/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Greece Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3612630
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $52,718
• Composite: 32.26/100
• National rank: #5761
• State rank: #544 of 590 in NY

Livability — Greece

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #145
• US rank: #2223

Category grades

Amenities C+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime D- Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Greece, NY
• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 29,210
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 29,273
• Household income: $78,204
• Rent vs Own: 32.1% rent · 67.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 810.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada, Vietnam, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -113.91%
• Current HPI: 248.9836
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+133.2% since first listed

18 events — show timeline

• 2024-06-24 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2024-06-15 Listed $209,900 UNYREIS
• 2019-08-16 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2019-08-10 Price Changed $149,900 UNYREIS
• 2019-08-02 Price Changed $154,900 UNYREIS
• 2019-07-11 Listed $159,900 UNYREIS
• 2016-09-10 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2016-09-10 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2016-07-14 Listed $119,900 UNYREIS
• 2016-06-05 Price Changed $119,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-02-08 Price Changed $124,900 WNYREIS
• 2016-02-06 Listed $119,900 UNYREIS
• 2015-12-15 Listed $115,900 UNYREIS
• 2015-11-04 Price Changed $115,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-09-19 Price Changed $119,900 WNYREIS
• 2015-09-07 Listed $115,900 UNYREIS
• 2012-08-07 Listed $134,900 UNYREIS
• 1997-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $8,071 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.