2402 Crescent Way · Hollymead, VA 22911

$479,000

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,334 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 2023 2,613 sqft lot $205/sqft · 15% below area Est $565k · 15% under $125/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.4/15.0
• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Price Improved! Don’t miss this beautifully maintained 2023-built end-unit townhome offering exceptional value in a growing community. Featuring a bright open-concept main level with a modern kitchen, oversized island, and seamless flow into the living and dining areas—perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The entry level provides a versatile space with a full bath, ideal for guests, a home office, or additional living area. Upstairs, enjoy a spacious primary suite along with well-sized secondary bedrooms for flexible use. Step outside to a private rear deck backing to wooded views for added privacy. Conveniently located near Charlottesville Airport, shopping, dining, and major routes. Move-in ready and shows beautifully—schedule your tour today!

Key facts

• $125 HOA
• Garage
• Built 2023

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $479k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-710 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $354k (26.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $312k (34.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $312k (34.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 2.6% in Hollymead — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#271 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living D-.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Baker-Butler Elem (math 67% / reading 78%, grade A, #267 of 1,108 statewide, top 24%, 740 students, 28% FRL); Lakeside Middle (math 76% / reading 84%, grade A+, #24 of 342 statewide, top 8%, 513 students, 23% FRL); Albemarle High (math 70% / reading 85%, grade A-, #83 of 319 statewide, top 28%, 1,987 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 307 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($465k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $388k; 24% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $311,820 (34.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.35%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 12.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $565,482
• List price: $479,000
• Delta: -15.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1446 Decatur Dr	0.30mi	4/2.5	2,396 (+3%)	12mo	$570,000	$238	67
3256 Timberwood Pkwy	0.18mi	4/2.5	1,993 (-15%)	1mo	$544,000	$273	63
3206 Poplar Ridge Rd	0.52mi	4/2.5	2,211 (-5%)	2mo	$644,000	$291	62
2150 Northside Dr	0.57mi	4/4.5	2,368 (+2%)	8mo	$747,500	$316	60
3158 Sagebrush Ct	0.71mi	4/2.5	2,419 (+4%)	5mo	$575,000	$238	53
2009 Locke Ln	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,476 (+6%)	13mo	$520,000	$210	52
3526 Thicket Run Pl	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,251 (-4%)	6mo	$640,000	$284	50
3672 Airport Acres Rd	0.54mi	5/2.0 (+1)	2,116 (-9%)	6mo	$320,000	$151	43
2990 Colonial Dr	0.54mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,088 (-10%)	11mo	$540,000	$259	41
3411 Thicket Run Pl	0.51mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,086 (-11%)	11mo	$662,914	$318	40
3417 Thicket Run Pl	0.52mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,086 (-11%)	15mo	$646,873	$310	37
3654 Airport Acres Rd	0.61mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,984 (-15%)	13mo	$459,000	$231	27

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.04% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-119,581
• Equity at exit: $71,420

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.2%
• Equity multiple: -0.11×
• Total profit: $-148,692
• Equity at exit: $41,415

Cash invested: $134,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22911

• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 307
• Price-to-rent: 12.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,118 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,512
• Tax from tax record: −$337 /mo · $4,043/yr
• Insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$125
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$655
• Net cashflow: $-710

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,017

Max offer price $353,572

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-439	-5% $-574	+0% $-710	+5% $-846	+10% $-981
Rent	-10% $-956	-5% $-833	+0% $-710	+5% $-587	+10% $-464
Rate	-1.0pp $-469	-0.5pp $-588	base $-710	+0.5pp $-834	+1.0pp $-960

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $119,750
• Closing costs: $14,370
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2217 Brindle Ln Charlottesville, VA	4.0	3.5	2182	$2,900	$1.33	15d	1	0.06mi
2132 Northside Dr Charlottesville, VA	3.0	2.5	2075	$3,550	$1.71	15d	1	0.57mi
2061 Lockwood Dr Charlottesville, VA	3.0	2.5	1741	$2,975	$1.71	23d	1	0.69mi
2942 Templehof Ct Earlysville, VA	3.0	3.5	2361	$2,750	$1.16	15d	1	0.92mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $125 · $1,500/yr

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-02
   days on market $479,000 Active 59 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $479,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $479,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-05-30
   days on market $479,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-04-29
   price $479,000 787-char remark

   Show marketing remark (787 chars)

   Price Improved! Don’t miss this beautifully maintained 2023-built end-unit townhome offering exceptional value in a growing community. Featuring a bright open-concept main level with a modern kitchen, oversized island, and seamless flow into the living and dining areas—perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The entry level provides a versatile space with a full bath, ideal for guests, a home office, or additional living area. Upstairs, enjoy a spacious primary suite along with well-sized secondary bedrooms for flexible use. Step outside to a private rear deck backing to wooded views for added privacy. Conveniently located near Charlottesville Airport, shopping, dining, and major routes. Move-in ready and shows beautifully—schedule your tour today!

6. 2026-04-04
   listed $489,900 Active 787-char remark

   Show marketing remark (787 chars)

   Price Improved! Don’t miss this beautifully maintained 2023-built end-unit townhome offering exceptional value in a growing community. Featuring a bright open-concept main level with a modern kitchen, oversized island, and seamless flow into the living and dining areas—perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The entry level provides a versatile space with a full bath, ideal for guests, a home office, or additional living area. Upstairs, enjoy a spacious primary suite along with well-sized secondary bedrooms for flexible use. Step outside to a private rear deck backing to wooded views for added privacy. Conveniently located near Charlottesville Airport, shopping, dining, and major routes. Move-in ready and shows beautifully—schedule your tour today!

7. 2026-04-03
   historical $489,900 787-char remark

   Show marketing remark (787 chars)

   Price Improved! Don’t miss this beautifully maintained 2023-built end-unit townhome offering exceptional value in a growing community. Featuring a bright open-concept main level with a modern kitchen, oversized island, and seamless flow into the living and dining areas—perfect for both everyday living and entertaining. The entry level provides a versatile space with a full bath, ideal for guests, a home office, or additional living area. Upstairs, enjoy a spacious primary suite along with well-sized secondary bedrooms for flexible use. Step outside to a private rear deck backing to wooded views for added privacy. Conveniently located near Charlottesville Airport, shopping, dining, and major routes. Move-in ready and shows beautifully—schedule your tour today!

8. 2023-04-10
   soldstatus $387,665 Sold 777-char remark

   Show marketing remark (777 chars)

   Brand new 2-car garage townhome for Spring 2023 move-in at Proffit Road Towns, Charlottesville’s newest & most affordable new home community! Featuring 3 beds, 2.5 baths, plus a 2-car garage & rear deck, this townhome also boasts an open concept main level, chef inspired kitchen w/ oversized island, granite, stainless appliances (gas cooking), maple cabinetry & luxury vinyl plank flooring. The spacious owner’s suite includes a tray ceiling, walk-in closet & private en-suite bath with dual vanities. PLUS, we're offering $7500 in special Fall Savings to secure the lowest interest rate & payment possible! Tested, inspected and HERS® scored by a 3rd party energy consultant & is also inspected by a 3rd party for quality.

9. 2023-02-11
   historical 777-char remark

   Show marketing remark (777 chars)

   Brand new 2-car garage townhome for Spring 2023 move-in at Proffit Road Towns, Charlottesville’s newest & most affordable new home community! Featuring 3 beds, 2.5 baths, plus a 2-car garage & rear deck, this townhome also boasts an open concept main level, chef inspired kitchen w/ oversized island, granite, stainless appliances (gas cooking), maple cabinetry & luxury vinyl plank flooring. The spacious owner’s suite includes a tray ceiling, walk-in closet & private en-suite bath with dual vanities. PLUS, we're offering $7500 in special Fall Savings to secure the lowest interest rate & payment possible! Tested, inspected and HERS® scored by a 3rd party energy consultant & is also inspected by a 3rd party for quality.

10. 2022-11-02
    historical 777-char remark

    Show marketing remark (777 chars)

    Brand new 2-car garage townhome for Spring 2023 move-in at Proffit Road Towns, Charlottesville’s newest & most affordable new home community! Featuring 3 beds, 2.5 baths, plus a 2-car garage & rear deck, this townhome also boasts an open concept main level, chef inspired kitchen w/ oversized island, granite, stainless appliances (gas cooking), maple cabinetry & luxury vinyl plank flooring. The spacious owner’s suite includes a tray ceiling, walk-in closet & private en-suite bath with dual vanities. PLUS, we're offering $7500 in special Fall Savings to secure the lowest interest rate & payment possible! Tested, inspected and HERS® scored by a 3rd party energy consultant & is also inspected by a 3rd party for quality.

11. 2022-10-31
    listed $389,960 777-char remark

    Show marketing remark (777 chars)

    Brand new 2-car garage townhome for Spring 2023 move-in at Proffit Road Towns, Charlottesville’s newest & most affordable new home community! Featuring 3 beds, 2.5 baths, plus a 2-car garage & rear deck, this townhome also boasts an open concept main level, chef inspired kitchen w/ oversized island, granite, stainless appliances (gas cooking), maple cabinetry & luxury vinyl plank flooring. The spacious owner’s suite includes a tray ceiling, walk-in closet & private en-suite bath with dual vanities. PLUS, we're offering $7500 in special Fall Savings to secure the lowest interest rate & payment possible! Tested, inspected and HERS® scored by a 3rd party energy consultant & is also inspected by a 3rd party for quality.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,043 · $337/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,043 · $337/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,831
• − Property taxes: −$4,043
• − Insurance: −$2,395
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,993
• − Management: −$2,993
• − HOA: −$1,500
• − Depreciation: −$13,935
• Taxable loss: −$17,272
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,145
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,375/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albemarle County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100090
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,851
• Composite: 62.28/100
• National rank: #698
• State rank: #14 of 131 in VA

Livability — Hollymead

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #271
• US rank: #9656

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living D- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hollymead, VA
• County: Albemarle County · 129,350 people
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 19,107
• Household income: $128,235
• Rent vs Own: 32.4% rent · 67.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 532.0

Population outlook (Albemarle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,403 people
• By 2030: 125,829 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 137,705 · +15.3%
• By 2050: 148,058 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 172,223 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 185,628 · +55.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Two or more races 8% Black 7% Asian 7% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Albemarle

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.1) · D 66.3% · R 32.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.1pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 34.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.1 2020: D+33.5 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+12.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -236.54%
• Current HPI: 220.3768
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.04%
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+22.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $479,000 CAAR
• 2026-04-04 Listed $489,900 CAAR
• 2026-04-03 Coming Soon $489,900 CAAR
• 2023-04-10 Sold (MLS) $387,665 CAAR
• 2023-02-11 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2022-11-02 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2022-10-31 Listed $389,960 CAAR

Property tax history

+123.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,043 · +9.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.