215 Doney Run · Weatherly, PA
Flood risk 10/10 · Severe
- FEMA flood zone
- X (unshaded)
- Chance of flooding over 30 yrs
- 0.99%
- Est. flood insurance / yr
- $507 – $1,088
Fire risk 3/10 · Minor
- Est. fire insurance / yr
- $511 – $949
Heat risk 3/10 · Minor
- Hot days now (above 92°F)
- 8 days/yr
- Hot days in 30 yrs
- 17 days/yr
Wind risk 4/10 · Minor
- Chance of severe wind over 30 yrs
- 8.0%
Air-quality risk 2/10 · Minimal
- Unhealthy air days now
- 1 days/yr
- Unhealthy air days in 30 yrs
- 2 days/yr
Risk factors via First Street. Map © Google.
Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade
The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).
- Cash flow +25.2/30.0
- ARV discount +15.0/15.0
- DSCR +8.3/10.0
- 1% rule +6.7/10.0
- Schools +3.0/10.0
- Livability +3.0/5.0
- Rent growth +2.5/5.0
- Condition / age +2.5/5.0
- Appreciation +0.0/10.0
$89,900
🖨 Deal sheet (PDF) 📄 Offer letter ✓ Due diligence
Listing remarks
Great Opportunity To Own A 3 Bedroom Home In The Heart Of Weatherly At An Affordable Price! Tucked into the hillside and offering a surprising amount of living space across multiple levels, this property is ideal for buyers looking to build equity, investors searching for a value-add opportunity, or anyone looking for a full-time residence with character and potential. The main level features a spacious living room that flows directly into the kitchen area, creating an open feel with plenty of natural light. Upstairs find two bedrooms and a full bath, while the finished third floor provides an additional bedroom or flexible bonus space perfect for guests, office use, or storage. Full baseme
Key facts
- Wooded backdrop
- Finished third floor
- Conveniently located
Tags
Property features AI
Exterior
- Parking: Driveway
- Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
- Home design: 2-story home; R2 zoning; Above-grade finished area reported
- Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt/fiberglass roof; Full dirt-floor basement
- Exterior features: Porch; Patio; Property on a cul-de-sac; Sloped lot
Interior
- Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen with island
- Bedrooms: Total rooms: 5
- Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile
- Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
- Heating & cooling: Oil hot water heating with baseboard; Ceiling fan(s)
- Interior features: Attic; Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen island; Storage; Traditional floorplan
- Laundry & utility: Electric water heater
Neighborhood map
What this means for you Summary
Snapshot
- This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $90k.
Deal economics
- At list price, monthly cash flow is $135 ($2k/yr) — positive.
- The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
- Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $90k).
- Recommended offer: $89k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Location & tenants
- Location reads 60/100 on livability (#1,488 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, schools B+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
- Weatherly Area SD (rural): math 22% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #415 of 539 in PA (top 77%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
- Market conditions: 19 active listings in the ZIP; 180 units permitted in Carbon County in 2024 (10 in 5+ unit buildings).
Forward outlook
- Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $622 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
- Carbon County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
Negotiation context
- It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($89k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
- 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $9k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
- Current owner paid $40k; list at $90k implies a 125% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Risks & watch-outs
- Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1881 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
- Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for the listing agent
- Built in 1881 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
- What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
- Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
- Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
- Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
- What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
- What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
- How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Investment metrics
- 1% rule
- 1.17% ✓
- Cap rate
- 8.99%
- Cash-on-cash
- 9.62%
- DSCR
- 1.43
- GRM
- 7.1
CMA / ARV
- ARV (median comp)
- $141,712
- List price
- $89,900
- Delta
- -36.56%
- Verdict
- UNDERPRICED
- Comps
- 20 within 1.0 mi
Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi
| Address | Dist | Beds/Ba | Sqft | Sold | Price | $/sf | Match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 106 Butz St | 0.13mi | 2/1.0 | 992 (+4%) | 15mo | $43,000 | $43 | 70 |
| 730 E Main St | 0.75mi | 3/1.0 (+1) | 1,056 (+11%) | 2mo | $175,000 | $166 | 36 |
Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.
Projected returns pro-forma
-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon
- IRR
- -6.3%
- Equity multiple
- 0.77×
- Total profit
- $-5,887
- Equity at exit
- $13,404
- IRR
- 3.4%
- Equity multiple
- 1.25×
- Total profit
- $6,225
- Equity at exit
- $7,773
Cash invested: $25,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.
Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology
- Overall (STATE)
- 62 Landlord-Friendly
- State Pennsylvania
- 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
- County
- — inherits STATE
- City
- — inherits STATE
ZIP-level market 18255
- Home prices YoY
- -14.9%
- Active inventory
- 19
- Price-to-rent
- 7.1×
Monthly cashflow live
- Estimated rent
- $1,053 medium interval (Pro) →
- Mortgage (P&I)
- −$471
- Tax from tax record
- −$121 /mo · $1,455/yr
- Insurance
- −$37
- Flood insurance flood zone
- −$66 /mo · $798/yr
- HOA
- −$0
- Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt
- −$221
- Net cashflow
- $135
Break-even live
Sensitivity live
| Price | -10% $186 | -5% $161 | +0% $135 | +5% $110 | +10% $84 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rent | -10% $52 | -5% $94 | +0% $135 | +5% $177 | +10% $219 |
| Rate | -1.0pp $181 | -0.5pp $158 | base $135 | +0.5pp $112 | +1.0pp $88 |
UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt
Financing live
Cash to close
- Down payment
- $22,475
- Closing costs
- $2,697
- Reserves months
- —
- Total cash needed
- —
Loan-product check · same deal, 3 products live
Conventional
25% down · 7.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Personal DTI + credit; lowest rate.
DSCR
20% down · 8.5% · 30yr
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
No personal income docs; deal must DSCR.
Hard money
10% down · 12.0% · 12mo
- Down + closing
- —
- Monthly P&I
- —
- Monthly cashflow
- —
- DSCR
- —
- Eligible?
- —
Short-term bridge; refi at stabilization.
Listing history 12 events
-
2026-06-10days on market $89,900 Active 30 DOM
-
2026-06-09days on market $89,900 Active 29 DOM
-
2026-06-08days on market $89,900 Active 28 DOM
-
2026-06-07days on market $89,900 Active 27 DOM
-
2026-06-05days on market $89,900 Active 24 DOM
-
2026-06-02days on market $89,900 Active 22 DOM
-
2026-06-01days on market $89,900 Active 21 DOM
-
2026-05-31days on market $89,900 Active 20 DOM
-
2026-05-30days on market $89,900 Active 19 DOM
-
2026-05-11$99,000 Active 1246-char remark
-
2026-04-22$99,000 Active 1246-char remark
-
2006-04-28soldstatus $40,000
ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot
backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.
Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)
- Current annual tax
- $1,455 · $121/mo
- Projected year-2 tax
- $1,455 · $121/mo
- Expected delta
- $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)
ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.
Climate risk First Street
- Flood 10/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
- Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
- Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥92°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
- Wind 4/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
- Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out
Nearby sold comps map
Loading sold comps map…
Walkable amenities ~0.75 mi
Loading nearby amenities…
Taxation est. · year 1
- Rental income
- $12,637
- − Mortgage interest
- −$5,036
- − Property taxes
- −$1,455
- − Insurance
- −$1,247
- − Repairs & maintenance
- −$1,011
- − Management
- −$1,011
- − Depreciation
- −$2,615
- Taxable income
- $262
- Est. tax owed @ 24.0%
- −$63
- After-tax cash flow
- $1,561/yr
For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.
Schools (NCES district)
- District
- Weatherly Area SD
- NCES district ID
- 4225140
- Math proficiency
- 22% ▼ -33.00%
- Reading proficiency
- 48% ▼ -20.00%
- Median HH income
- $48,177
- Composite
- 30.07/100
- National rank
- #6348
- State rank
- #415 of 539 in PA
Livability — Weatherly
- Score
- 60/100
- State rank
- #1488
- US rank
- #19254
Category grades
Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.
Census & demographics
- Census place
- Weatherly, PA
- City population
- 4,310
- Population (ZIP)
- 4,310
Population outlook (Carbon County) Hauer SSP2
- Today (2025)
- 61,643 people
- By 2030
- 59,840 · -2.9%
- By 2040
- 55,413 · -10.1%
- By 2050
- 50,843 · -17.5%
- By 2075
- 43,326 · -29.7%
- By 2100
- 37,126 · -39.8%
Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023
- Neighborhood character
- Predominantly White (95%)
- Race & ethnicity
- White 95% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 3%
- Common ancestry
- Romanian 14% Polish 3% Iranian 3%
- Foreign-born
- 2% · Canada, China
- Languages at home
- 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%
Political lean MEDSL · Carbon
- 2024 margin
- Solid R (+34.8) · D 32.2% · R 67.0%
- 2008→2024 swing
- -36.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.9pp · 2024: -34.8pp
- All cycles
- 2024: R+34.8 2020: R+32.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+6.9 2008: D+1.9
Not yet ingested
- Civics
- —
Market trends
- HPI YoY
- ▼ -32.36%
- Current HPI
- 185.3029
- Rent YoY
- —
- Metro
- —
- State GDP YoY
- ▲ 1.68%
- F500 in state
- 34
Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)
| Industry | F500 HQs | Revenue |
|---|---|---|
| Healthcare | 2 | $309B |
|
||
| Insurance | 2 | $27B |
|
||
| Telecommunications / Media | 1 | $124B |
|
||
| Industrial Distribution | 1 | $22B |
|
||
| Financial Services | 1 | $20B |
|
||
| Chemicals / Materials | 1 | $18B |
|
||
Price history
+124.8% since first listed6 events — show timeline
- 2026-06-11 Listing Removed — GLVRMLS
- 2026-05-20 Price Changed $89,900 PMAR
- 2026-05-20 Price Changed $89,900 GLVRMLS
- 2026-05-11 Listed $99,000 GLVRMLS
- 2026-04-22 Listed $99,000 PMAR
- 2006-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records
Property tax history
+3.2%/yrLatest (2026): $1,455 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.
Cash-flow waterfall
monthlySold comps — $/sqft
last 12 mo · ≤1 miLoading sold comps…