4204 20th St NE · Holt, AL 35404

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 33 Days on market

Built 1950 0.49 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +4.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Check this charming property located in Tuscaloosa with 2 bedrooms, 1 bathroom, renovated granite counters, luxury flooring, and covered porch! Property currently has a tenant, lease ends 7/31/2027. Current rent rate is $885/monthly.

Key facts

• Covered porch
• 0.49 acre lot
• Built 1950

Tags

• RENOVATED GRANITE COUNTERS
• COVERED PORCH

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-family residential property; Residential property
• Construction: Composition/shingle roof; Built with other construction materials
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Workshop on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Appliances: Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 7; Laundry on main level
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Bay windows; Electric water heater; No fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $41 ($496/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $120k (20.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $120k (20.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#317 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Holt Elementary School (math 16% / reading 35%, grade F, #411 of 627 statewide, top 66%, 462 students, 87% FRL); Holt High School (math 12% / reading 17%, grade F, #220 of 305 statewide, top 77%, 435 students, 90% FRL) — zoned schools average 89% FRL vs 45% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 33% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Tuscaloosa County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.8%/yr); 167 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($146k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $128k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 57% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $119,617 (20.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.18%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $98,940
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4206 Alabama Avenue Ave NE	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,176 (+1%)	5mo	$66,000	$56	82
4006 Alabama Ave NE	0.16mi	2/2.5	1,076 (-8%)	1mo	$144,000	$134	73
4201 21st St NE	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,272 (+9%)	1mo	$87,000	$68	72
4202 20th St NE	0.02mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,011 (-13%)	4mo	$110,000	$109	69
4815 Reichhold Rd	0.44mi	2/2.0	1,160 (-0%)	21mo	$100,000	$86	58
3418 Pine Crest Rd	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,225 (+5%)	3mo	$139,900	$114	57
1302 Crescent Ridge Rd NE	0.56mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,234 (+6%)	8mo	$75,144	$61	50
3425 Maple St NE	0.65mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,008 (-13%)	6mo	$70,000	$69	37
6 Coke Ave NE	0.61mi	2/1.0	1,056 (-9%)	23mo	$90,000	$85	36
3023 Pine Crest Rd	0.75mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-1%)	22mo	$65,000	$56	36
2605 35th Ave NE	0.63mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,016 (-13%)	23mo	$109,000	$107	26

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.81% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-16,978
• Equity at exit: $22,365

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.23×
• Total profit: $9,479
• Equity at exit: $12,969

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35404

• Rents YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,196 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$55 /mo · $654/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $41

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,144

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $126	-5% $84	+0% $41	+5% $-1	+10% $-44
Rent	-10% $-53	-5% $-6	+0% $41	+5% $89	+10% $136
Rate	-1.0pp $117	-0.5pp $79	base $41	+0.5pp $2	+1.0pp $-37

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
3824 15th St NE Tuscaloosa, AL	3.0	1.0	864	$1,050	$1.22	15d	1	0.50mi
1308 Crescent Ridge Rd NE Tuscaloosa, AL	3.0	2.0	1052	$1,250	$1.19	45d	1	0.56mi
4220 Keene Dr Tuscaloosa, AL	2.0–3.0	2.0	1119	$750	$0.67	23d	1	1.32mi

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $150,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $150,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $150,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $150,000 Active 24 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $150,000 Active 22 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $150,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $150,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $150,000 Active 16 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $150,000 Active 15 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $150,000 Active 14 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $150,000 Active 13 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $150,000 Active 12 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $150,000 Active 11 DOM
18. 2026-05-19
    listed $150,000 Active
19. 2025-07-05
    historical $885
20. 2025-07-02
    listed $885
21. 2025-07-02
    historical $885
22. 2025-06-18
    listed $885
23. 2022-05-13
    soldstatus $128,500
24. 2022-05-06
    soldstatus $228,000
25. 2021-10-13
    soldstatus $70,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $654 · $55/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $654 · $55/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 57% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,354
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$654
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,148
• − Management: −$1,148
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,113
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$507
• After-tax cash flow: $1,003/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Holt

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #317
• US rank: #19673

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Holt, AL
• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 23,553
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 22,445
• Household income: $48,932
• Rent vs Own: 56.5% rent · 43.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1531.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 46% White 44% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.00%
• Current HPI: 170.026
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.81%
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+114.3% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $150,000 WAMLS
• 2025-07-05 Rental Removed $885 APPFOLIO
• 2025-07-02 Listed for Rent $885 APPFOLIO
• 2025-07-02 Rental Removed $885 SHOWMOJO
• 2025-06-18 Listed for Rent $885 SHOWMOJO
• 2022-05-13 Sold (Public Records) $128,500 Public Records
• 2022-05-06 Sold (Public Records) $228,000 Public Records
• 2021-10-13 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $654 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.