17209 English Chestnut Way · Odessa, FL 34638

$294,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,463 sqft · Land · 67 Days on market

Built 2026 $58/mo HOA · 2% of rent ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• DSCR +3.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.6/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Under Construction. Westwood brings new homes to Land O’ Lakes and it is just minutes from the Suncoast Parkway. The community, located in a very desirable area, offers a pool, cabana, playground, dog park, passive park, and paved trails. The Tampa airport and downtown Tampa are both just a short 30-minute drive away. The schools are all excellently rated and not far from the community. Westwood will feature our townhomes - thoughtfully designed, open-concept floor plans to suit every lifestyle. Each home is built with durable concrete block construction on the first and second stories and includes Smart Home System for seamless modern living. Pictures, photographs, colors, features,

Key facts

• Dog park
• Passive park
• Paved trails

Tags

• POOL
• CABANA
• PLAYGROUND
• DOG PARK
• PASSIVE PARK
• PAVED TRAILS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Home warranty included; Permit number: 2025-000399; CDD applicable; Total monthly association fees listed as $58 / total annual fees $696
• Financial info: Other annual assessment: $2,225; Lease restrictions apply
• HOA & community: HOA managed by Access Management; Monthly HOA fee $58 (includes grounds maintenance); Association amenities: Clubhouse, playground, pool; Association approval required; Pets allowed

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car, 11x20); Parking pad
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Under construction (projected completion July 30, 2026); Two levels; South-facing
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Built as new construction; Slab foundation; Builder: D.R. Horton; Builder model: PEARSON B
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Irrigation equipment; Park, playground and pool in the community

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Blinds; Double-pane windows
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-98 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $278k (5.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (20.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $235k (20.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.9% vs local median 3.3% in Odessa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#389 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities D-, commute F.
• Pasco (suburban): math 50% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #32 of 73 in FL (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Wesley Chapel Elementary School (math 67% / reading 68%, grade B+, #435 of 2,144 statewide, top 21%, 828 students, 37% FRL); Charles S. Rushe Middle School (math 66% / reading 62%, grade B+, #105 of 571 statewide, top 19%, 1,548 students, 26% FRL); Wesley Chapel High School (math 52% / reading 58%, grade C, #135 of 667 statewide, top 20%, 1,826 students, 40% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.8%/yr); 723 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 12d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 6,765 units permitted in Pasco County in 2024 (1,250 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pasco County population projected at +29% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 67 days — a 6% lower offer ($277k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $234,773 (20.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 67 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.89%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.42%
• DSCR: 0.94
• GRM: 10.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.26×
• Total profit: $-60,944
• Equity at exit: $43,984

10-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.06×
• Total profit: $-87,771
• Equity at exit: $25,505

Cash invested: $82,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34638

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Rents YoY: -3.8%
• Active inventory: 723
• Price-to-rent: 10.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,348 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,547
• Tax from tax record: −$225 /mo · $2,699/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$58
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$493
• Net cashflow: $-98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,472

Max offer price $277,668

Occupancy floor 99%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $69	-5% $-15	+0% $-98	+5% $-182	+10% $-265
Rent	-10% $-284	-5% $-191	+0% $-98	+5% $-5	+10% $87
Rate	-1.0pp $51	-0.5pp $-23	base $-98	+0.5pp $-174	+1.0pp $-252

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,748
• Closing costs: $8,850
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17260 English Chestnut Way Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,200	$1.50	26d	1	0.04mi
17208 English Chestnut Way Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1463	$2,100	$1.44	26d	1	0.04mi
17256 Amber Aspen Way Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1673	$2,100	$1.26	26d	1	0.05mi
3664 Clay Pot Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	3.0	1844	$2,695	$1.46	26d	1	0.28mi
3245 Bellericay Ln Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1464	$2,255	$1.54	26d	1	0.34mi
16947 Kettle Ln Land O' Lakes, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1080	$2,630	$2.43	1d	16	0.47mi
17031 Ongar Ct Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1158	$2,100	$1.81	0d	1	0.54mi
17026 Ongar Ct Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.0	1292	$2,140	$1.66	5d	1	0.56mi
3249 Downan Point Dr Land O Lakes, FL	4.0	2.0	1825	$2,575	$1.41	7d	1	0.67mi
2841 Girvan Dr Land O Lakes, FL	3.0	2.5	1755	$2,295	$1.31	7d	1	0.77mi
16885 Amaranth Dr Land O'lakes, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1106	$2,876	$2.60	0d	33	0.99mi
2878 Suncoast Plains Dr Odessa, FL	3.0	2.5	1758	$2,395	$1.36	13d	1	1.27mi
17583 Bellavista Loop Lutz, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	994	$2,323	$2.34	0d	29	1.39mi
2179 Azure View Way Lutz, FL	3.0	2.5	1634	$2,375	$1.45	12d	1	1.46mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $58 · $696/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-05-04
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-04
   price $294,990
3. 2026-04-29
   price $284,990
4. 2026-04-15
   price $289,990
5. 2026-04-08
   price $309,990
6. 2026-03-11
   price $310,990
7. 2026-02-26
   listed $312,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,699 · $225/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,699 · $225/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,173
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,524
• − Property taxes: −$2,699
• − Insurance: −$1,475
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,254
• − Management: −$2,254
• − HOA: −$696
• − Depreciation: −$8,582
• Taxable loss: −$6,310
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,514
• After-tax cash flow: $338/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pasco
• NCES district ID: 1201530
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $45,039
• Composite: 43.14/100
• National rank: #3074
• State rank: #32 of 73 in FL

Livability — Odessa

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #389
• US rank: #6856

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Pasco County · 524,098 people
• City population: 35,755
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• Population (ZIP): 37,644
• Household income: $123,899
• Rent vs Own: 16.4% rent · 83.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 354.0

Population outlook (Pasco County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 570,045 people
• By 2030: 605,844 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 674,806 · +18.4%
• By 2050: 736,022 · +29.1%
• By 2075: 862,900 · +51.4%
• By 2100: 906,364 · +59.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.59)
• Race & ethnicity: White 58% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 16% Black 6% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 4% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Indo-European 2% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Pasco

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+25.2) · D 36.9% · R 62.1% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -25.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+25.2 2020: R+20.1 2016: R+21.6 2012: R+6.7 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.02%
• Current HPI: 299.2018
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.78%
• Metro: Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $294,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $284,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $289,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-08 Price Changed $309,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-11 Price Changed $310,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-26 Listed $312,990 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+285.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,699 · +12.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.