103 Hidden Valley Dr · Briar Chapel, NC 27516

$249,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,188 sqft · Townhouse public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1983 0.69 ac lot Est $255k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well maintained duplex on lovely wooded lot in very quiet established neighborhood. Convenient to US 15 501 for commute to UNC campus, Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Pittsboro; to Hwy 64 bypass for commute to Apex, Cary, Raleigh area. Galley kitchen, living room w/ fireplace, office, great bath downstairs. Two bedrooms & bath up. Private screened-in porch to enjoy view of fenced back yard. Highest and best offers by Saturday April 11 5 pm. Property sold as is.

Key facts

• Bedroom suite
• Cozy living room
• Secluded wooded home

Tags

• PRIVATE RETREAT
• SECLUDED WOODED HOME
• CLASSIC GALLEY KITCHEN
• COZY LIVING ROOM
• WARM FIREPLACE
• BEDROOM SUITE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $129 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $214k (14.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $214k (14.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 1.8% in Briar Chapel — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Chatham County Schools (rural): math 45% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #68 of 178 in NC (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Margaret B. Pollard Middle (math 57% / reading 64%, grade B+, #43 of 475 statewide, top 9%, 768 students, 20% FRL); Seaforth High (732 students, 24% FRL) — zoned schools average 22% FRL vs 45% district-wide (23 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+12 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Chatham County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 361 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 458 units permitted in Chatham County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chatham County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $170k; 46% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $213,985 (14.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.22%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,420
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
103 Hidden Valley Dr	0.00mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,211 (+2%)	1mo	$260,000	$215	91

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.54% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.52×
• Total profit: $-33,182
• Equity at exit: $37,127

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.68×
• Total profit: $-22,587
• Equity at exit: $21,529

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27516

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 361
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,140 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$152 /mo · $1,823/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$449
• Net cashflow: $129

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,977

Max offer price $249,000

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
103 Hidden Valley Dr Chapel Hill, NC	2.0	2.0	1211	$1,950	$1.61	3d	1	0.02mi
135 Ballentrae Ct Pittsboro, NC	2.0	1.0–2.0	959	$1,975	$2.06	2d	25	1.16mi
20 Allendale Dr Unit 127A Pittsboro, NC	2.0	1.0	750	$1,250	$1.67	23d	1	1.27mi
20 Allendale Dr Pittsboro, NC	2.0	1.0	750	$1,250	$1.67	17d	1	1.27mi
127 Allendale Dr Pittsboro, NC	2.0	1.0	750	$1,250	$1.67	23d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-04-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-14
   listed $249,000 Active
3. 2020-05-28
   soldstatus $170,000 Closed 462-char remark

   Show marketing remark (462 chars)

   Well maintained duplex on lovely wooded lot in very quiet established neighborhood. Convenient to US 15 501 for commute to UNC campus, Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Pittsboro; to Hwy 64 bypass for commute to Apex, Cary, Raleigh area. Galley kitchen, living room w/ fireplace, office, great bath downstairs. Two bedrooms & bath up. Private screened-in porch to enjoy view of fenced back yard. Highest and best offers by Saturday April 11 5 pm. Property sold as is.

4. 2020-05-28
   soldstatus $170,000

   Show marketing remark (462 chars)

   Well maintained duplex on lovely wooded lot in very quiet established neighborhood. Convenient to US 15 501 for commute to UNC campus, Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Pittsboro; to Hwy 64 bypass for commute to Apex, Cary, Raleigh area. Galley kitchen, living room w/ fireplace, office, great bath downstairs. Two bedrooms & bath up. Private screened-in porch to enjoy view of fenced back yard. Highest and best offers by Saturday April 11 5 pm. Property sold as is.

5. 2020-05-05
   status Pending 462-char remark

   Show marketing remark (462 chars)

   Well maintained duplex on lovely wooded lot in very quiet established neighborhood. Convenient to US 15 501 for commute to UNC campus, Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Pittsboro; to Hwy 64 bypass for commute to Apex, Cary, Raleigh area. Galley kitchen, living room w/ fireplace, office, great bath downstairs. Two bedrooms & bath up. Private screened-in porch to enjoy view of fenced back yard. Highest and best offers by Saturday April 11 5 pm. Property sold as is.

6. 2020-04-12
   historical Contingent 462-char remark

   Show marketing remark (462 chars)

   Well maintained duplex on lovely wooded lot in very quiet established neighborhood. Convenient to US 15 501 for commute to UNC campus, Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Pittsboro; to Hwy 64 bypass for commute to Apex, Cary, Raleigh area. Galley kitchen, living room w/ fireplace, office, great bath downstairs. Two bedrooms & bath up. Private screened-in porch to enjoy view of fenced back yard. Highest and best offers by Saturday April 11 5 pm. Property sold as is.

7. 2020-04-05
   listed $170,000 Active 462-char remark

   Show marketing remark (462 chars)

   Well maintained duplex on lovely wooded lot in very quiet established neighborhood. Convenient to US 15 501 for commute to UNC campus, Chapel Hill, Carrboro, Pittsboro; to Hwy 64 bypass for commute to Apex, Cary, Raleigh area. Galley kitchen, living room w/ fireplace, office, great bath downstairs. Two bedrooms & bath up. Private screened-in porch to enjoy view of fenced back yard. Highest and best offers by Saturday April 11 5 pm. Property sold as is.

8. 2011-08-01
   historical
9. 2011-03-07
   listed $147,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,823 · $152/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,042 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$219/yr (+$18/mo · 12.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,678
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$1,823
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,054
• − Management: −$2,054
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$2,690
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$646
• After-tax cash flow: $2,194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chatham County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700750
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $57,371
• Composite: 41.82/100
• National rank: #3390
• State rank: #68 of 178 in NC

Livability — Briar Chapel

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Orange County · 151,666 people
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• Population (ZIP): 47,358
• Household income: $106,353
• Rent vs Own: 29.3% rent · 70.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1783.0

Population outlook (Chatham County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,640 people
• By 2030: 90,521 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 99,791 · +17.9%
• By 2050: 106,565 · +25.9%
• By 2075: 119,165 · +40.8%
• By 2100: 122,958 · +45.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (69%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 69% Asian 10% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Romanian 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 85% English-only · Spanish 5% Chinese 3% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Chatham

• 2024 margin: D (+12.5) · D 55.7% · R 43.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +2.8pp toward D · 2008: 9.7pp · 2024: 12.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+12.5 2020: D+11.5 2016: D+10.1 2012: D+4.8 2008: D+9.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -360.82%
• Current HPI: 222.7543
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.54%
• Metro: Durham-Chapel Hill, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+69.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-20 Pending — TMLS
• 2026-04-14 Listed $249,000 TMLS
• 2020-05-28 Sold (Public Records) $170,000 Public Records
• 2020-05-28 Sold (MLS) $170,000 TMLS
• 2020-05-05 Pending — TMLS
• 2020-04-12 Contingent — TMLS
• 2020-04-05 Listed $170,000 TMLS
• 2011-08-01 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2011-03-07 Listed $147,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+4.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,823 · +10.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.