533B Warwick Ct · Leisure Village West, NJ 08759

$239,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,243 sqft · Condo public records · 245 Days on market

Built 1977 $193/sqft · 17% below area Est $288k · 17% under $374/mo HOA · 14% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.1/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this immaculate 2 bedroom, 2 bath Stratford model home ideally situated on a desirable street-front location in the gated 55+ community of Leisure Village West. This home features an EIK w/full appliance pkg & large pantry. There is a formal living room for entertaining guests. The formal dining room features hardwood floors and a dry bar. A cozy den w/French doors and hdw flrs opens to a private, fenced patio-perfect for relaxing. The primary suite offers a spacious walk-in-closet and an adjoining bath w/stall shower, while the guest bdr is conveniently located near a full bath w tub. A separate laundry room provides direct access to the attached garage. Leisure Village West offers a resort lifestyle with 2 clubhouses, 2 pools, a golf course & an array of clubs & activities

Key facts

• Cozy den
• Formal dining room
• Dry bar

Tags

• EIK WITH FULL APPLIANCE PKG
• LARGE PANTRY
• FORMAL LIVING ROOM
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• DRY BAR
• COZY DEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $240k).
• Recommended offer: $211k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.1% vs local median 5.8% in Leisure Village West — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#261 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment B+; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 648 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 245 days — a 12% lower offer ($211k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $240k implies a 233% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $211,112 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 245 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1977 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.14%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.01%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $288,226
• List price: $239,900
• Delta: -16.77%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-27,868
• Equity at exit: $35,770

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.86×
• Total profit: $-9,380
• Equity at exit: $20,742

Cash invested: $67,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 648
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,757 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,258
• Tax from tax record: −$277 /mo · $3,328/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$374
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$579
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,543

Max offer price $239,900

Occupancy floor 89%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,975
• Closing costs: $7,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
73 Buckingham Dr N Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	967	$2,200	$2.28	43d	1	0.67mi
43C Edinburgh Ln Manchester, NJ	2.0	1.0	836	$2,200	$2.63	43d	1	0.77mi
150 Farm Rd Manchester, NJ	3.0	2.0	1280	$3,000	$2.34	21d	1	0.93mi
2501 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0–2.5	1252	$3,468	$2.77	1d	6	1.04mi
2035 Route 37 Manchester, NJ	2.0	2.0	1375	$2,775	$2.02	1d	3	1.23mi
501 Bismarck St Toms River, NJ	3.0	1.0	1300	$2,775	$2.13	43d	1	1.34mi
1425 Amsterdam Ave Toms River, NJ	3.0	2.0	1376	$3,500	$2.54	43d	1	1.38mi
1700 New Jersey 37 Unit 112-11 Toms River, NJ	2.0	2.0	1224	$2,299	$1.88	1d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $374 · $4,488/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $239,900 Active 245 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $239,900 Active 244 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $239,900 Active 243 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $239,900 Active 242 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $239,900 Active 240 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $239,900 Active 236 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $239,900 Active 235 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $239,900 Active 234 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $239,900 Active 231 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $239,900 Active 230 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $239,900 Active 229 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $239,900 Active 228 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $239,900 Active 227 DOM
14. 2025-12-05
    status Active 810-char remark

    Show marketing remark (810 chars)

    Welcome to this immaculate 2 bedroom, 2 bath Stratford model home ideally situated on a desirable street-front location in the gated 55+ community of Leisure Village West. This home features an EIK w/full appliance pkg & large pantry. There is a formal living room for entertaining guests. The formal dining room features hardwood floors and a dry bar. A cozy den w/French doors and hdw flrs opens to a private, fenced patio-perfect for relaxing. The primary suite offers a spacious walk-in-closet and an adjoining bath w/stall shower, while the guest bdr is conveniently located near a full bath w tub. A separate laundry room provides direct access to the attached garage. Leisure Village West offers a resort lifestyle with 2 clubhouses, 2 pools, a golf course & an array of clubs & activities

15. 2025-10-10
    status Pending 810-char remark

    Show marketing remark (810 chars)

    Welcome to this immaculate 2 bedroom, 2 bath Stratford model home ideally situated on a desirable street-front location in the gated 55+ community of Leisure Village West. This home features an EIK w/full appliance pkg & large pantry. There is a formal living room for entertaining guests. The formal dining room features hardwood floors and a dry bar. A cozy den w/French doors and hdw flrs opens to a private, fenced patio-perfect for relaxing. The primary suite offers a spacious walk-in-closet and an adjoining bath w/stall shower, while the guest bdr is conveniently located near a full bath w tub. A separate laundry room provides direct access to the attached garage. Leisure Village West offers a resort lifestyle with 2 clubhouses, 2 pools, a golf course & an array of clubs & activities

16. 2025-08-21
    listed $239,900 Active 810-char remark

    Show marketing remark (810 chars)

    Welcome to this immaculate 2 bedroom, 2 bath Stratford model home ideally situated on a desirable street-front location in the gated 55+ community of Leisure Village West. This home features an EIK w/full appliance pkg & large pantry. There is a formal living room for entertaining guests. The formal dining room features hardwood floors and a dry bar. A cozy den w/French doors and hdw flrs opens to a private, fenced patio-perfect for relaxing. The primary suite offers a spacious walk-in-closet and an adjoining bath w/stall shower, while the guest bdr is conveniently located near a full bath w tub. A separate laundry room provides direct access to the attached garage. Leisure Village West offers a resort lifestyle with 2 clubhouses, 2 pools, a golf course & an array of clubs & activities

17. 2012-06-13
    soldstatus $72,000
18. 1993-12-22
    soldstatus $75,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,328 · $277/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,651 · $388/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,323/yr (+$110/mo · 39.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,085
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,438
• − Property taxes: −$3,328
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,647
• − Management: −$2,647
• − HOA: −$4,488
• − Depreciation: −$6,979
• Taxable loss: −$1,641
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$394
• After-tax cash flow: $2,419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Leisure Village West

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #261
• US rank: #7714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Leisure Village West, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+219.9% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-05 Relisted — MOMLS
• 2025-10-10 Pending — MOMLS
• 2025-08-21 Listed $239,900 MOMLS
• 2012-06-13 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 1993-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,328 · +11.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.