83 Falmouth Ave · Crestwood Village, NJ 08759

$229,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 966 sqft · SingleFamily · 19 Days on market

Built 1980 Excellent condition 6,098 sqft lot $238/sqft · 8% below area Est $250k · 8% under $175/mo HOA · 8% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.7/30.0
• ARV discount +11.1/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• 1% rule +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

CLEAN, Move In Condition Andover w/ **NEW** Refrigerator, Washer, Dryer & HWH..*Newer* Vinyl Tilt-In Windows in Kitchen & Den..Updated Kitchen Floor & Tile Backsplash..Berber Carpeting in Den..Plus an 8 x 10 Patio to enjoy the well manicured yard!

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Brand new kitchen
• Updated ranch

Tags

• UPDATED RANCH
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• NEW VINYL WINDOWS
• BRAND NEW KITCHEN
• WHITE SHAKER CABINETS
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of 175 (Crestwood 7)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership; Model: Andover
• Construction: Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Level topography

Interior

• Kitchen: Microwave; Stove; Refrigerator; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Forced air; Heat pump; Baseboard heating; 3+ zoned heat; Central air conditioning; Heat pump cooling; 4-zone AC
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Light fixtures; No fireplace; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $230k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-26 ($-309/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $226k (1.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $220k (4.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $220k (4.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#422 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A, housing A, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Manchester Township School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #320 of 472 in NJ (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Whiting Elementary School (math 22% / reading 47%, grade F, #582 of 1,303 statewide, top 49%, 301 students, 25% FRL); Manchester Township Middle School (math 28% / reading 45%, grade F, #226 of 431 statewide, top 55%, 582 students, 41% FRL); Manchester Township High School (math 21% / reading 38%, grade F, #290 of 399 statewide, top 74%, 959 students, 38% FRL).
• Market conditions: 658 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 19 days — a 2% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 25y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $67k; list at $230k implies a 243% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 63% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $220,000 (4.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.96% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.16%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.48%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $249,599
• List price: $229,900
• Delta: -7.89%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
43 S Chestnut Ave #72	0.19mi	2/1.0	966 (0%)	6mo	$235,000	$243	86
38 Chelsea Dr #70	0.32mi	2/1.0	966 (0%)	8mo	$232,000	$240	78
13 Churchill Rd #71	0.44mi	2/1.0	966 (0%)	2mo	$189,000	$196	78
24 Churchill Rd Sec 71	0.39mi	2/1.0	966 (0%)	7mo	$256,000	$265	76
10 Falmouth Ave #72	0.31mi	2/1.0	966 (0%)	14mo	$255,000	$264	74
9 Apple Ln	0.09mi	2/1.5	1,072 (+11%)	5mo	$222,000	$207	72
53 Westport Dr	0.56mi	2/1.0	966 (0%)	8mo	$204,000	$211	68
35 Churchill Rd #71	0.50mi	2/1.0	966 (0%)	12mo	$225,000	$233	66
94 Cherry St	0.62mi	2/1.0	988 (+2%)	10mo	$369,900	$374	59
55 Westport Dr #71	0.55mi	2/1.0	858 (-11%)	1mo	$170,000	$198	55
8 Westport Dr Sec 71 Dr	0.47mi	2/1.0	858 (-11%)	7mo	$230,000	$268	54
8 Westport Dr #71	0.47mi	2/1.0	858 (-11%)	7mo	$230,000	$268	54

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.40×
• Total profit: $-38,755
• Equity at exit: $34,279

10-year hold

• IRR: -8.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-35,291
• Equity at exit: $19,878

Cash invested: $64,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08759

• Active inventory: 658
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,200 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$287 /mo · $3,448/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$175
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$462
• Net cashflow: $-26

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,233

Max offer price $226,169

Occupancy floor 96%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $133	-5% $54	+0% $-26	+5% $-105	+10% $-185
Rent	-10% $-200	-5% $-113	+0% $-26	+5% $61	+10% $148
Rate	-1.0pp $90	-0.5pp $33	base $-26	+0.5pp $-85	+1.0pp $-146

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,475
• Closing costs: $6,897
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
50 Westport Dr #71 Whiting, NJ	2.0	1.0	1120	$2,200	$1.96	0d	1	0.53mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $175 · $2,100/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-02
   status $229,900 Pending 19 DOM
2. 2026-06-01
   days on market $229,900 Active 19 DOM
3. 2026-05-31
   days on market $229,900 Active 18 DOM
4. 2026-05-13
   listed $229,900 Active 888-char remark
5. 2013-10-31
   soldstatus $66,950 259-char remark

   Show marketing remark (259 chars)

   CLEAN, Move In Condition Andover w/ **NEW** Refrigerator, Washer, Dryer & HWH..*Newer* Vinyl Tilt-In Windows in Kitchen & Den..Updated Kitchen Floor & Tile Backsplash..Berber Carpeting in Den..Plus an 8 x 10 Patio to enjoy the well manicured yard!

6. 2013-05-01
   listed $68,500 259-char remark

   Show marketing remark (259 chars)

   CLEAN, Move In Condition Andover w/ **NEW** Refrigerator, Washer, Dryer & HWH..*Newer* Vinyl Tilt-In Windows in Kitchen & Den..Updated Kitchen Floor & Tile Backsplash..Berber Carpeting in Den..Plus an 8 x 10 Patio to enjoy the well manicured yard!

7. 2011-04-14
   listed $74,900
8. 2010-04-15
   listed $83,900
9. 2009-02-16
   listed $112,900
10. 2008-07-15
    listed $118,500
11. 2001-07-27
    soldstatus $47,000
12. 2001-06-26
    historical
13. 2001-06-14
    listed $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 63% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,878
• − Property taxes: −$3,448
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,112
• − Management: −$2,112
• − HOA: −$2,100
• − Depreciation: −$6,688
• Taxable loss: −$4,088
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$981
• After-tax cash flow: $672/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This completely renovated and move-in ready home offers a bright and open layout with new kitchen, bath, and exterior features. The property is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed.

Value-add opportunities

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both exterior paint — freshens up the home's appearance
• Both interior paint — updates the home's look and feel

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both landscaping — enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both exterior paint — freshens up the home's appearance ↑
• Both interior paint — updates the home's look and feel ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Manchester Township School District
• NCES district ID: 3409450
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $38,905
• Composite: 28.8/100
• National rank: #6662
• State rank: #320 of 472 in NJ

Livability — Crestwood Village

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #422
• US rank: #15006

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime C+ Employment F Housing A Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 34,290
• Population (ZIP): 34,290

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 4% Two or more races 4% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -347.85%
• Current HPI: 274.4679
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+359.8% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Pending — MOMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $229,900 MOMLS
• 2013-10-31 Sold (MLS) $66,950 MOMLS
• 2013-05-01 Listed $68,500 MOMLS
• 2011-04-14 Listed $74,900 MOMLS
• 2010-04-15 Listed $83,900 MOMLS
• 2009-02-16 Listed $112,900 MOMLS
• 2008-07-15 Listed $118,500 MOMLS
• 2001-07-27 Sold (MLS) $47,000 MOMLS
• 2001-06-26 Delisted — MOMLS
• 2001-06-14 Listed $50,000 MOMLS