2501 W Wickenburg Way #345 · Wickenburg, AZ 85390

$119,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,456 sqft · Manufactured · 93 Days on market

Built 2020 Good condition $82/sqft · 202% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful 2020 CAVCO home in Westpark is located in a desirable cul-de-sac up against a hill with one neighbor to the north for added privacy and minimal traffic. The home features an east/west exposure, helping to keep the interior comfortable while allowing for great natural light throughout the day. The modern layout has an open kitchen and dining area, comfortable living room, laundry room, two bedrooms, and two full bathrooms for convenience and privacy. The newer 2020 construction means updated finishes and efficient systems. Enjoy sitting on the front or back porch perfect for enjoying the scenery, great weather, and entertaining. The property includes a storage shed with A/C. The cover patio has plenty of space for two vehicles.

Key facts

• Storage shed
• Covered patio
• East west exposure

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC
• EAST WEST EXPOSURE
• OPEN KITCHEN
• STORAGE SHED
• COVERED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $119k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $238 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $119k).
• Recommended offer: $108k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.0% vs local median 3.0% in Wickenburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#41 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Wickenburg Unified District (4236) (rural): math 33% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #92 of 249 in AZ (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 378 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $823 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 93 days — a 9% lower offer ($108k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 5→13/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $108,290 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 93 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.58% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.00%
• Cash-on-cash: 23.94%
• DSCR: 2.07
• GRM: 5.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $39,445
• List price: $119,000
• Delta: 201.68%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 16 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2501 W Wickenburg Way #37	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-1%)	1mo	$15,000	$10	92
2501 W Wickenburg Way #353	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,500 (+3%)	1mo	$100,000	$67	89
2501 W Wickenburg Way #362	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,361 (-6%)	2mo	$99,900	$73	82
2501 W Wickenburg Way #102	0.11mi	2/3.0	1,560 (+7%)	1mo	$15,000	$10	78
2501 W Wickenburg Way #137	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	9mo	$27,000	$20	74
2501 W Wickenburg Way #171	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-8%)	9mo	$70,000	$52	74
2501 W Wickenburg Way #68	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,536 (+6%)	13mo	$55,000	$36	70
2501 W Wickenburg Way #35	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-14%)	2mo	$14,500	$12	69
2501 W Wickenburg Way #175	0.11mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,560 (+7%)	12mo	$79,500	$51	68
2501 W Wickenburg Way #154	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,248 (-14%)	14mo	$14,000	$11	59
725 W Smoketree Rd	0.73mi	2/2.0	1,568 (+8%)	4mo	$210,000	$134	50
685 Smoketree St	0.72mi	2/2.0	1,260 (-14%)	13mo	$230,000	$183	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.89×
• Total profit: $-3,824
• Equity at exit: $17,743

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $17,383
• Equity at exit: $10,289

Cash invested: $33,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85390

• Home prices YoY: -17.4%
• Active inventory: 378
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,882 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$624
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$149 /mo · $1,785/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,581

Max offer price $119,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,750
• Closing costs: $3,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2159 W Terrace Dr Wickenburg, AZ	3.0	2.0	1304	$2,100	$1.61	43d	1	0.61mi
2110 W Terrace Dr Wickenburg, AZ	3.0	2.0	1358	$1,600	$1.18	24d	1	0.70mi
540 S West Rd #24 Wickenburg, AZ	3.0	1.0	894	$2,200	$2.46	24d	1	0.85mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $119,000 Active 93 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $119,000 Active 92 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $119,000 Active 91 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $119,000 Active 90 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 88 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $119,000 Active 87 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $119,000 Active 84 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,000 Active 83 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $119,000 Active 82 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,000 Active 79 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $119,000 Active 78 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,000 Active 77 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,000 Active 76 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,000 Active 75 DOM
15. 2026-03-16
    listed $119,000 Active 747-char remark

    Show marketing remark (747 chars)

    Beautiful 2020 CAVCO home in Westpark is located in a desirable cul-de-sac up against a hill with one neighbor to the north for added privacy and minimal traffic. The home features an east/west exposure, helping to keep the interior comfortable while allowing for great natural light throughout the day. The modern layout has an open kitchen and dining area, comfortable living room, laundry room, two bedrooms, and two full bathrooms for convenience and privacy. The newer 2020 construction means updated finishes and efficient systems. Enjoy sitting on the front or back porch perfect for enjoying the scenery, great weather, and entertaining. The property includes a storage shed with A/C. The cover patio has plenty of space for two vehicles.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 8/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 5 d/yr ≥109°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,589
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,666
• − Property taxes: −$1,785
• − Insurance: −$5,714
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,807
• − Management: −$1,807
• − Depreciation: −$3,462
• Taxable income: $1,348
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$324
• After-tax cash flow: $2,534/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This 2020 CAVCO home in Westpark is in excellent condition with modern finishes and efficient systems. It offers a great location and potential for value-adding improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint exterior trim and siding — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Resale Replace countertops with quartz or granite — Improves kitchen aesthetics and value
• Both Install smart home automation — Enhances convenience and marketability

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint exterior trim and siding — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Resale Replace countertops with quartz or granite — Improves kitchen aesthetics and value ↑
• Both Install smart home automation — Enhances convenience and marketability ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wickenburg Unified District (4236)
• NCES district ID: 0409190
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,369
• Composite: 29.27/100
• National rank: #6560
• State rank: #92 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Wickenburg

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #41
• US rank: #7975

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety B User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Wickenburg, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,537,380 people
• City population: 10,298
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 10,298
• Household income: $68,591
• Rent vs Own: 17.9% rent · 82.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 251.0

Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -66.26%
• Current HPI: 314.3169
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listed $119,000 ARMLS