9528 Park · Fountain Lake, AR 71901

$125,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,140 sqft · Manufactured public records · 64 Days on market

Built 2023 0.54 ac lot ↓ 10% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +24.2/30.0
• DSCR +7.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

2023 Mobile Home, ready for some new owners.

Key facts

• 0.54 acre lot
• Built 2023
• Listed 63 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $250 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $125k).
• Recommended offer: $118k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#256 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Fountain Lake School District (rural): math 43% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #49 of 238 in AR (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 363 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 117 units permitted in Garland County in 2024 (24 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Garland County population projected at +7% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($118k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $117,500 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.69%
• Cash-on-cash: 8.57%
• DSCR: 1.38
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-4,388
• Equity at exit: $18,638

10-year hold

• IRR: 6.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.47×
• Total profit: $16,486
• Equity at exit: $10,808

Cash invested: $35,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 71901

• Home prices YoY: -3.6%
• Active inventory: 363
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,277 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$656
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $620/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$268
• Net cashflow: $250

Break-even live

Break-even rent $961

Max offer price $125,000

Occupancy floor 75%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,250
• Closing costs: $3,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9500 Park Ave Hot Springs National Park, AR	2.0	2.0	1052	$995	$0.95	44d	1	0.10mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $125,000 Active 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $125,000 Active 63 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $125,000 Active 62 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $125,000 Active 61 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $125,000 Active 60 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $125,000 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $125,000 Active 57 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $125,000 Active 55 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $125,000 Active 54 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $125,000 Active 53 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $125,000 Active 52 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $125,000 Active 48 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $125,000 Active 47 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $125,000 Active 46 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $125,000 Active 45 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $125,000 Active 44 DOM
17. 2026-04-16
    listed $125,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (44 chars)

    2023 Mobile Home, ready for some new owners.

18. 2026-04-16
    listed $125,000 New Listing 44-char remark

    Show marketing remark (44 chars)

    2023 Mobile Home, ready for some new owners.

19. 2026-03-24
    historical
20. 2026-03-06
    price $134,900
21. 2026-03-05
    price $134,900
22. 2026-02-06
    listed $139,000 Active
23. 2026-02-05
    listed $139,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $620 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $800 · $67/mo
• Expected delta: +$180/yr (+$15/mo · 29.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 13% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,328
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,002
• − Property taxes: −$620
• − Insurance: −$625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,226
• − Management: −$1,226
• − Depreciation: −$3,636
• Taxable income: $992
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$238
• After-tax cash flow: $2,760/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fountain Lake School District
• NCES district ID: 0506420
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $52,435
• Composite: 35.99/100
• National rank: #4789
• State rank: #49 of 238 in AR

Livability — Fountain Lake

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #256
• US rank: #18433

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fountain Lake, AR
• County: Garland County · 76,414 people
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• Population (ZIP): 28,937
• Household income: $53,514
• Rent vs Own: 37.1% rent · 62.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 961.0

Population outlook (Garland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,343 people
• By 2030: 101,880 · +1.5%
• By 2040: 104,804 · +4.4%
• By 2050: 107,292 · +6.9%
• By 2075: 113,182 · +12.8%
• By 2100: 112,247 · +11.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Black 13% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 2% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 7% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Garland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.2) · D 30.8% · R 67.0% · Other 2.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.3pp toward R · 2008: -25.0pp · 2024: -36.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.2 2020: R+34.0 2016: R+34.1 2012: R+29.9 2008: R+25.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -11.75%
• Current HPI: 317.2542
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Hot Springs, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

-10.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $125,000 HSBOR
• 2026-04-16 Listed $125,000 CARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listing Removed — CARMLS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $134,900 CARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $134,900 HSBOR
• 2026-02-06 Listed $139,000 HSBOR
• 2026-02-05 Listed $139,000 CARMLS

Property tax history

+12.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $620 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.