1115 SW Old Dogwood Ter · Lake City, FL 32025

$224,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,352 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1952 9,845 sqft lot Est $256k · 12% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.0/30.0
• ARV discount +12.9/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 1950's concrete brick home on a beautifully landscaped lot. When people see a home with concrete brick, second glances are common reactions. Besides itits striking visual qualities, concrete brick walls can reduce energy bills. Indoors, the beautiful hardwood floors in the bedroom add warmth while the updated kitchen will make meal time a pleasure. Outdoors, the abundant deck and patio space make this an ideal home for entertaining. All of this is set in the historic Bardin Terrace neighborhood with its variety of architectural styles.

Key facts

• Large back deck
• Attached carport
• Updated metal roof

Tags

• UPDATED METAL ROOF
• ATTACHED CARPORT
• LARGE BACK DECK
• NO FLOOD ZONE
• NO HOA
• NO DEED RESTRICTIONS

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Cable available
• Home design: Residential property; Single-story
• Construction: Brick construction; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Wood fencing; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Refrigerator; Gas cooktop
• Flooring: Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Electric heating; Heat pump; Central air
• Interior features: Ceiling fans; Hardwood flooring

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $225k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $28 ($337/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $180k (19.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $180k (19.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.7% in Lake City — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#304 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, employment F.
• Columbia (town): math 53% / reading 54% proficiency, ranked #25 of 73 in FL (top 34%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 143 active listings in the ZIP; 178 units permitted in Columbia County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($55k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Columbia County population projected to shrink 7% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $63k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $225k implies a 210% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $180,499 (19.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.44%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.53%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $255,528
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
302 SW Short Ln	0.41mi	3/1.0	1,360 (+1%)	3mo	$150,000	$110	78
146 SW Crescent St	0.10mi	3/2.0	1,217 (-10%)	9mo	$175,000	$144	67
384 S Marion Ave	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,314 (-3%)	1mo	$148,000	$113	62
1559 SE Valencia Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,422 (+5%)	10mo	$294,000	$207	58
880 SW Cherub Gln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,355 (+0%)	6mo	$279,000	$206	58
1188 SW Mcfarlane Ave	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+4%)	4mo	$280,000	$200	56
570 SE Sunflower Pl	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+4%)	8mo	$264,500	$189	55
350 SE Lake Forest Pl	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,277 (-6%)	15mo	$159,000	$125	54
493 SE Church Ave	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,440 (+6%)	2mo	$187,500	$130	46
552 SW Tularosa Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,493 (+10%)	17mo	$207,400	$139	45
855 SW Brookdale Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,238 (-8%)	14mo	$259,000	$209	38
1103 SW Sunbeam Way	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,540 (+14%)	10mo	$300,000	$195	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.97×
• Total profit: $124,204
• Equity at exit: $202,608

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.8%
• Equity multiple: 6.78×
• Total profit: $364,219
• Equity at exit: $436,931

Cash invested: $62,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32025

• Home prices YoY: 6.8%
• Active inventory: 143
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,805 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,179
• Tax from tax record: −$125 /mo · $1,497/yr
• Insurance: −$94
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$379
• Net cashflow: $28

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,769

Max offer price $224,900

Occupancy floor 93%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,225
• Closing costs: $6,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $224,900 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $224,900 Active 7 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $224,900 Active 6 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $224,900 Active 5 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $224,900 Active 4 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $224,900 Active 2 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   remarks 691-char remark
8. 2026-06-12
   listed $224,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,497 · $125/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,867 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$369/yr (+$31/mo · 24.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,660
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,598
• − Property taxes: −$1,497
• − Insurance: −$1,124
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,733
• − Management: −$1,733
• − Depreciation: −$6,543
• Taxable loss: −$3,568
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$856
• After-tax cash flow: $1,193/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Columbia
• NCES district ID: 1200360
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 54% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $40,053
• Composite: 44.74/100
• National rank: #2750
• State rank: #25 of 73 in FL

Livability — Lake City

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #304
• US rank: #5154

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake City, FL
• County: Columbia County · 40,507 people
• City population: 40,507
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 22,948
• Household income: $55,004
• Rent vs Own: 40.1% rent · 59.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 754.0

Population outlook (Columbia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,129 people
• By 2030: 67,501 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 65,465 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 63,058 · -7.4%
• By 2075: 56,291 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 45,243 · -33.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Black 20% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% French/Haitian/Cajun 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Columbia

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+50.2) · D 24.6% · R 74.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.4pp toward R · 2008: -33.8pp · 2024: -50.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+50.2 2020: R+45.2 2016: R+44.5 2012: R+36.7 2008: R+33.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 17.57%
• Current HPI: 276.7253
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Lake City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+181.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $224,900 NFMLS
• 2018-07-20 Sold (Public Records) $72,500 Public Records
• 2016-02-18 Sold (MLS) $49,000 NFMLS
• 2007-03-21 Sold (Public Records) $116,000 Public Records
• 2005-08-26 Sold (Public Records) $80,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,497 · -38.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.