508 Forest Dr · Hemlock Farms, PA 18428

$289,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,756 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 200 Days on market

Built 1989 Good condition 0.40 ac lot $165/sqft · 10% below area Est $330k · 13% under $250/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +13.1/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +5.4/10.0
• Schools +5.3/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

RARE FIND, WALK TO FAWN HILL POOL, CAMP AND FAMILY PARK !!!!COZY AND CHARMING SPLIT LEVEL IN GREAT CONDITION AND READY TO MOVE IN !!!LIVING ROOM WITH WITH WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE, EAT IN KITCHEN, 4 BEDROOMS, 2 BATHROOMS, OFFICE OR FAMILY ROOM WITH WOOD BURNING STOVE. DO NOT MISS IT !!!!!

Key facts

• Eat in kitchen
• 0.4 acre lot
• Community pool

Tags

• WALK TO FAWN HILL POOL
• EAT IN KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $221 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $289k).
• Recommended offer: $254k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 4.7% in Hemlock Farms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Wallenpaupack South El Sch (math 47% / reading 52%, grade D, #654 of 1,518 statewide, top 47%, 255 students, 72% FRL); Wallenpaupack Area Ms (math 23% / reading 57%, grade F, #257 of 512 statewide, top 52%, 644 students, 59% FRL); Wallenpaupack Area Hs (math 74% / reading 67%, grade B+, #48 of 437 statewide, top 11%, 990 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 44% district-wide (21 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 552 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,013/mo this rent would consume 48% of the median local household income ($75k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 200 days — a 12% lower offer ($254k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $289k implies a 1345% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $254,320 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 200 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.04% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.28%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 8.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $330,358
• List price: $289,000
• Delta: -12.52%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
119 Ridgeway Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,662 (-5%)	4mo	$549,000	$330	78
802 Rimrock Ct Unit 802 Rimrock Lane, Hawley, PA 18428	0.26mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,728 (-2%)	4mo	$345,000	$200	75
105 Longridge Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,692 (-4%)	6mo	$340,000	$201	75
105 Cliff Dr	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,701 (-3%)	1mo	$399,000	$235	74
801 Saddlebrook Spur Spur	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,728 (-2%)	7mo	$550,500	$319	73
802 Cedar Ct	0.39mi	3/1.5	1,676 (-5%)	0mo	$245,000	$146	72
107 Village Ln	0.33mi	3/2.0	1,512 (-14%)	2mo	$300,000	$198	60
107 Rimrock Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	2,000 (+14%)	8mo	$250,000	$125	59
128 Saddlebrook Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,539 (-12%)	8mo	$385,000	$250	51
800 Wren Ct	0.71mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,632 (-7%)	2mo	$239,900	$147	48
109 Bluestone Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-15%)	6mo	$255,000	$170	46
809 Boulder Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-12%)	6mo	$620,000	$404	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.12×
• Total profit: $171,631
• Equity at exit: $260,354

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.11×
• Total profit: $494,634
• Equity at exit: $561,463

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 11 active · 19 under contract
• Months of supply: 4.1 mo (24%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $329,000 ($199/sqft)
• Median days on market: 123 d
• This list price: 36% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 552
• Price-to-rent: 8.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,013 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$273 /mo · $3,279/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$633
• Net cashflow: $221

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,733

Max offer price $289,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $385	-5% $303	+0% $221	+5% $139	+10% $58
Rent	-10% $-17	-5% $102	+0% $221	+5% $340	+10% $459
Rate	-1.0pp $367	-0.5pp $295	base $221	+0.5pp $146	+1.0pp $70

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
105 Bluestone Dr Hawley, PA	3.0	1.5	1840	$2,300	$1.25	9d	1	0.54mi
101 Blueshelf Ln Lords Valley, PA	4.0	2.5	1772	$2,500	$1.41	0d	1	0.58mi
101 Pommel Dr Lords Valley, PA	3.0	2.0	1691	$4,400	$2.60	0d	1	0.91mi
106 Corral Ln Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	2150	$4,000	$1.86	99d	1	1.13mi
135 Highland Dr Hawley, PA	3.0	3.0	2594	$3,500	$1.35	0d	1	1.23mi
402 Canoe Brook Dr Lords Valley, PA	3.0	2.0	2055	$2,500	$1.22	0d	1	1.25mi
402 Canoe Brook Dr Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	2055	$3,500	$1.70	90d	1	1.25mi
131 Surrey Dr Hawley, PA	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,650	$1.36	139d	1	1.27mi
530 Maple Ridge Dr Hawley, PA	4.0	3.0	1920	$2,950	$1.54	17d	1	1.38mi

HOA detail $250/mo · $3,000/yr

• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-23
   days on market $289,000 Active 200 DOM
2. 2026-09-22
   days on market $289,000 Active 199 DOM
3. 2026-09-21
   days on market $289,000 Active 198 DOM
4. 2026-09-20
   days on market $289,000 Active 197 DOM
5. 2026-09-19
   days on market $289,000 Active 196 DOM
6. 2026-09-18
   days on market $289,000 Active 195 DOM
7. 2026-09-17
   days on market $289,000 Active 194 DOM
8. 2026-09-16
   days on market $289,000 Active 193 DOM
9. 2026-09-15
   days on market $289,000 Active 192 DOM
10. 2026-09-14
    days on market $289,000 Active 191 DOM
11. 2026-09-13
    days on market $289,000 Active 190 DOM
12. 2026-09-12
    days on market $289,000 Active 189 DOM
13. 2026-09-11
    days on market $289,000 Active 188 DOM
14. 2026-09-05
    days on market $289,000 Active 182 DOM
15. 2026-09-04
    days on market $289,000 Active 181 DOM
16. 2026-09-02
    remarks 691-char remark
17. 2026-09-02
    days on market $289,000 Active 179 DOM
18. 2026-08-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 177 DOM
19. 2026-08-30
    days on market $289,000 Active 176 DOM
20. 2026-08-29
    days on market $289,000 Active 175 DOM
21. 2026-08-28
    days on market $289,000 Active 174 DOM
22. 2026-08-27
    days on market $289,000 Active 173 DOM
23. 2026-08-26
    days on market $289,000 Active 172 DOM
24. 2026-08-25
    days on market $289,000 Active 171 DOM
25. 2026-08-24
    days on market $289,000 Active 170 DOM
26. 2026-08-23
    days on market $289,000 Active 169 DOM
27. 2026-08-22
    days on market $289,000 Active 168 DOM
28. 2026-08-21
    days on market $289,000 Active 167 DOM
29. 2026-08-20
    days on market $289,000 Active 166 DOM
30. 2026-08-19
    days on market $289,000 Active 165 DOM
31. 2026-08-18
    days on market $289,000 Active 164 DOM
32. 2026-08-17
    days on market $289,000 Active 163 DOM
33. 2026-08-16
    days on market $289,000 Active 162 DOM
34. 2026-08-15
    days on market $289,000 Active 161 DOM
35. 2026-08-14
    days on market $289,000 Active 160 DOM
36. 2026-08-13
    days on market $289,000 Active 159 DOM
37. 2026-08-12
    days on market $289,000 Active 158 DOM
38. 2026-08-11
    days on market $289,000 Active 157 DOM
39. 2026-08-10
    days on market $289,000 Active 156 DOM
40. 2026-08-09
    days on market $289,000 Active 155 DOM
41. 2026-08-08
    days on market $289,000 Active 154 DOM
42. 2026-08-06
    days on market $289,000 Active 152 DOM
43. 2026-08-05
    days on market $289,000 Active 151 DOM
44. 2026-08-04
    days on market $289,000 Active 150 DOM
45. 2026-08-03
    days on market $289,000 Active 149 DOM
46. 2026-07-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 146 DOM
47. 2026-07-30
    days on market $289,000 Active 145 DOM
48. 2026-07-30
    days on market $289,000 Active 144 DOM
49. 2026-07-28
    days on market $289,000 Active 143 DOM
50. 2026-07-26
    days on market $289,000 Active 141 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,279 · $273/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,923 · $327/mo
• Expected delta: +$644/yr (+$54/mo · 19.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,158
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$3,279
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,893
• − Management: −$2,893
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable loss: −$1,947
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$467
• After-tax cash flow: $3,122/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 9 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $8,780–$26,340 screening

This split-level home is in good condition with a good exterior and interior. It has a good roof and foundation, and the landscaping is well-maintained. The home is ready to move in and has a good resale potential with minor updates.

Repairs flagged

• Minor Carpeted flooring — Worn appearance suggests regular cleaning is needed.
• Minor Landscaping — Some areas could benefit from trimming and maintenance.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance the home's curb appeal and make it more appealing to potential buyers. ↑
• Resale Replace worn carpets — Fresh carpets can improve the home's overall appearance and make it more attractive to potential buyers. ↑
• Both Landscaping maintenance — Well-maintained landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and increase its rental value. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

D Composite school gradezoned avg 53/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Wallenpaupack South El Sch D PA #654/1,518 Nat'l #12,785/41,679 Middle Wallenpaupack Area Ms F PA #257/512 Nat'l #6,005/14,009 High Wallenpaupack Area Hs B+ PA #48/437 Nat'l #2,083/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

C Composite livability gradescore 68/100

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemlock Farms, PA
• County: Pike · 53,548 people
• Population (ZIP): 12,446
• Household income: $75,463
• Rent vs Own: 18.2% rent · 81.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 13% of renters

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Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1345.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-07 Listed $289,000 PWMLS
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $299,000 PWMLS
• 2025-02-06 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2024-07-07 Listed $325,000 PWMLS
• 1986-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,279 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.