508 Forest Dr · Hemlock Farms, PA 18428

$289,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,756 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 103 Days on market

Built 1989 0.40 ac lot $165/sqft · 11% below area Est $333k · 13% under $250/mo HOA · 7% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.7/30.0
• ARV discount +13.5/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

RARE FIND, WALK TO FAWN HILL POOL, CAMP AND FAMILY PARK !!!!COZY AND CHARMING SPLIT LEVEL IN GREAT CONDITION AND READY TO MOVE IN !!!LIVING ROOM WITH WITH WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE, EAT IN KITCHEN, 4 BEDROOMS, 2 BATHROOMS, OFFICE OR FAMILY ROOM WITH WOOD BURNING STOVE. DO NOT MISS IT !!!!!

Key facts

• Eat in kitchen
• 0.4 acre lot
• Community pool

Tags

• WALK TO FAWN HILL POOL
• EAT IN KITCHEN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $289k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $783 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $289k).
• Recommended offer: $263k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 7.1% in Hemlock Farms — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#884 in PA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Wallenpaupack Area SD (rural): math 39% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #192 of 539 in PA (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 371 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 213 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $31k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $29k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Pike County population projected at -25% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $81k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$50k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 103 days — a 9% lower offer ($263k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $20k; list at $289k implies a 1345% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $262,990 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 103 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.54%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.61%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $333,261
• List price: $289,000
• Delta: -13.28%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
119 Ridgeway Dr	0.17mi	3/2.5	1,662 (-5%)	1mo	$549,000	$330	80
802 Rimrock Ct Unit 802 Rimrock Lane, Hawley, PA 18428	0.26mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,728 (-2%)	1mo	$345,000	$200	78
105 Longridge Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,692 (-4%)	3mo	$340,000	$201	78
801 Saddlebrook Spur Spur	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,728 (-2%)	4mo	$550,500	$319	76
121 Saddlebrook Ln	0.43mi	3/2.0	1,648 (-6%)	8mo	$315,000	$191	63
107 Rimrock Ln	0.23mi	3/2.0	2,000 (+14%)	5mo	$250,000	$125	62
107 Long Spur Ln	0.30mi	3/2.5	2,010 (+14%)	6mo	$430,000	$214	55
809 Widgeon Ct	0.47mi	3/3.0	1,911 (+9%)	6mo	$730,000	$382	54
128 Saddlebrook Ln	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,539 (-12%)	5mo	$385,000	$250	53
219 Mountain View Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	2,012 (+15%)	6mo	$455,000	$226	51
109 Bluestone Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,500 (-15%)	3mo	$255,000	$170	49
809 Boulder Ct	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,536 (-12%)	3mo	$620,000	$404	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 32.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.56×
• Total profit: $207,436
• Equity at exit: $260,354

10-year hold

• IRR: 28.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.07×
• Total profit: $571,946
• Equity at exit: $561,463

Cash invested: $80,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 18428

• Home prices YoY: 9.2%
• Active inventory: 371
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,725 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,516
• Tax from tax record: −$273 /mo · $3,279/yr
• Insurance: −$120
• HOA: −$250
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$782
• Net cashflow: $783

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,733

Max offer price $289,000

Occupancy floor 74%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $947	-5% $865	+0% $783	+5% $701	+10% $620
Rent	-10% $489	-5% $636	+0% $783	+5% $930	+10% $1,077
Rate	-1.0pp $929	-0.5pp $857	base $783	+0.5pp $708	+1.0pp $632

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,250
• Closing costs: $8,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
101 Pommel Dr Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	1691	$4,400	$2.60	1d	1	0.91mi
106 Corral Ln Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	2150	$4,000	$1.86	4d	1	1.13mi
402 Canoe Brook Dr Hawley, PA	3.0	2.0	2055	$3,500	$1.70	1d	1	1.25mi
131 Surrey Dr Hawley, PA	4.0	2.0	1952	$2,650	$1.36	44d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $250 · $3,000/yr
• Likely covers: pool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $289,000 Active 103 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $289,000 Active 102 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $289,000 Active 101 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $289,000 Active 100 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 98 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $289,000 Active 97 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $289,000 Active 94 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $289,000 Active 93 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $289,000 Active 92 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $289,000 Active 89 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $289,000 Active 88 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $289,000 Active 87 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $289,000 Active 86 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $289,000 Active 85 DOM
15. 2026-03-07
    listed $289,000 Active 288-char remark

    Show marketing remark (288 chars)

    RARE FIND, WALK TO FAWN HILL POOL, CAMP AND FAMILY PARK !!!!COZY AND CHARMING SPLIT LEVEL IN GREAT CONDITION AND READY TO MOVE IN !!!LIVING ROOM WITH WITH WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE, EAT IN KITCHEN, 4 BEDROOMS, 2 BATHROOMS, OFFICE OR FAMILY ROOM WITH WOOD BURNING STOVE. DO NOT MISS IT !!!!!

16. 2025-07-17
    price $299,000
17. 2025-02-06
    status Active
18. 2024-07-07
    listed $325,000 Active
19. 1986-12-22
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,279 · $273/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,923 · $327/mo
• Expected delta: +$644/yr (+$54/mo · 19.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $44,695
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,188
• − Property taxes: −$3,279
• − Insurance: −$1,445
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,576
• − Management: −$3,576
• − HOA: −$3,000
• − Depreciation: −$8,407
• Taxable income: $5,224
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,254
• After-tax cash flow: $8,145/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wallenpaupack Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4224750
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $51,027
• Composite: 41.97/100
• National rank: #3345
• State rank: #192 of 539 in PA

Livability — Hemlock Farms

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #884
• US rank: #9421

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hemlock Farms, PA
• Population (ZIP): 12,446

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,548 people
• By 2030: 51,622 · -3.6%
• By 2040: 46,490 · -13.2%
• By 2050: 40,372 · -24.6%
• By 2075: 31,951 · -40.3%
• By 2100: 26,821 · -49.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 6% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Portuguese 3% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 5% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+24.1) · D 37.6% · R 61.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -19.8pp toward R · 2008: -4.2pp · 2024: -24.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+24.1 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+11.0 2008: R+4.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.60%
• Current HPI: 340.8254
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+1345.0% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-07 Listed $289,000 PWMLS
• 2025-07-17 Price Changed $299,000 PWMLS
• 2025-02-06 Relisted — PWMLS
• 2024-07-07 Listed $325,000 PWMLS
• 1986-12-22 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2026): $3,279 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.