1148 Bear Grass · Maineville, OH 45039

$449,900

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,188 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 11 Days on market

Built 2001 0.32 ac lot Est $418k · 8% over $68/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +6.3/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.4/5.0
• ARV discount +4.1/15.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.3/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Wonderful neighborhood, on cul-de-sac, professional landscaping, nice deck off breakfast room, vaulted ceilings & ceiling fans, new carpet & new paint, insulated garage door, gas fireplace. Move in ready!

Key facts

• Large center island
• Enclosed deck
• Spacious kitchen

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• SPACIOUS KITCHEN
• LARGE CENTER ISLAND
• ABUNDANT COUNTER SPACE
• PLENTY OF CABINETS
• ENCLOSED DECK

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA present (Towne Prop); Annual association fee of $810; Association amenities include play area, pool, tennis courts, and walking trails

Exterior

• Parking: Front-entry 2-car garage
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available
• Home design: Traditional single-family home; Two levels; Poured foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle roof
• Exterior features: Covered deck/patio; Porch; Wood fencing; Shed on property; Less than 0.5 acre lot (approximately 0.323 acres)

Interior

• Kitchen: Butler's pantry; Quartz counters; Eat-in kitchen with island; Walkout to exterior; Wood flooring in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 4 bedrooms total; Primary bedroom (20 x 13) on level 2; Bedroom 2 (13 x 13) on level 2; Bedroom 3 (15 x 11) on level 2; Bedroom 4 (13 x 11) on level 2
• Flooring: Wood floors in kitchen, dining room, living room, and foyer; Concrete floor in study and part of basement
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 2 half bathrooms; Primary bathroom with shower and tub; Partial bath on main level; Partial bath in basement
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Forced air heating (gas); Gas water heating
• Interior features: 9-foot (and higher) ceilings; Multi-panel doors; Vaulted ceiling; Open foyer with transom/sidelights; Fireplace (gas)
• Laundry & utility: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven/Range; Refrigerator

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $450k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-798 ($-10k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $309k (31.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $283k (37.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $283k (37.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#529 in OH) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Little Miami Local (rural): math 67% / reading 70% proficiency, ranked #140 of 656 in OH (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Little Miami Primary School (math 76% / reading 65%, grade A-, #376 of 1,584 statewide, top 24%, 855 students, 18% FRL); Little Miami Middle School (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A, #143 of 654 statewide, top 23%, 1,279 students, 16% FRL); Little Miami High School (math 52% / reading 81%, grade B, #150 of 781 statewide, top 20%, 1,445 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 16% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.4%/yr); 130 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,224 units permitted in Warren County in 2024 (474 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($109k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $48k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $45k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Warren County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$77k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 11 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $188k; list at $450k implies a 139% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $282,575 (37.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.63% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.60%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 13.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $417,908
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7710 Crystal Cove Pointe	0.31mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,198 (+0%)	7mo	$390,000	$177	72
1200 Carrington Pl	0.27mi	4/2.5	2,480 (+13%)	1mo	$378,000	$152	64
1123 Carrington Pl	0.23mi	4/2.5	2,496 (+14%)	2mo	$465,000	$186	64
845 Village Green Pkwy	0.41mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,344 (+7%)	4mo	$375,000	$160	58
6595 Thistle Grv	0.72mi	4/3.0	2,232 (+2%)	4mo	$412,000	$185	58
1627 Down Ct	0.66mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,100 (-4%)	1mo	$399,900	$190	57
1440 Eagle Blvd	0.55mi	4/2.5	2,000 (-9%)	4mo	$405,000	$203	56
7143 Birkdale Dr	0.45mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,005 (-8%)	5mo	$475,000	$237	54
7845 Horizon Bnd	0.73mi	4/2.5	2,416 (+10%)	1mo	$460,489	$191	48
7783 Crystal Cove Pointe	0.38mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,917 (-12%)	9mo	$455,000	$237	47
8016 Acorn Trl	0.74mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,343 (+7%)	5mo	$499,000	$213	43
7736 Habbin Dr	0.71mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,902 (-13%)	9mo	$400,000	$210	28

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 7.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.65×
• Total profit: $207,340
• Equity at exit: $405,306

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.2%
• Equity multiple: 6.42×
• Total profit: $682,317
• Equity at exit: $874,057

Cash invested: $125,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 45039

• Home prices YoY: 7.3%
• Rents YoY: 7.4%
• Active inventory: 130
• Price-to-rent: 13.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,826 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,359
• Tax from tax record: −$415 /mo · $4,983/yr
• Insurance: −$187
• HOA: −$68
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$593
• Net cashflow: $-798

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,836

Max offer price $308,980

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-543	-5% $-670	+0% $-798	+5% $-925	+10% $-1,052
Rent	-10% $-1,021	-5% $-909	+0% $-798	+5% $-686	+10% $-574
Rate	-1.0pp $-571	-0.5pp $-683	base $-798	+0.5pp $-914	+1.0pp $-1,033

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,475
• Closing costs: $13,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1256 Carrington Pl Maineville, OH	4.0	2.5	3000	$2,521	$0.84	25d	1	0.32mi
7814 Wilderness Way Maineville, OH	4.0	2.0	2140	$2,671	$1.25	45d	1	0.47mi
903 Pineneedle Pl Maineville, OH	4.0	2.5	1848	$2,231	$1.21	45d	1	0.51mi
6976 Briarcliff Ct Maineville, OH	4.0	3.0	2475	$3,595	$1.45	18d	1	0.65mi
1624 Rosemore Ln Morrow, OH	3.0	2.5	1900	$2,601	$1.37	14d	1	0.66mi
7831 Healy Dr Maineville, OH	3.0	2.5	2084	$2,671	$1.28	45d	1	0.80mi
330 Heftner Cir Maineville, OH	3.0	2.5	1588	$2,056	$1.29	9d	1	0.96mi
311 Heftner Cir Maineville, OH	3.0	2.5	1442	$2,200	$1.53	14d	1	1.00mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $68 · $816/yr
• Likely covers: gaslandscaping

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $449,900 Active 11 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $449,900 Active 8 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $449,900 Active 7 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $449,900 Active 6 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $449,900 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   listed $449,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,983 · $415/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,001 · $500/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,018/yr (+$85/mo · 20.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $33,909
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,201
• − Property taxes: −$4,983
• − Insurance: −$2,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,713
• − Management: −$2,713
• − HOA: −$816
• − Depreciation: −$13,088
• Taxable loss: −$17,855
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,285
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,287/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Little Miami Local
• NCES district ID: 3905044
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 70% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $74,949
• Composite: 60.5/100
• National rank: #844
• State rank: #140 of 656 in OH

Livability — Maineville

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #529
• US rank: #9001

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Warren County · 196,906 people
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 28,335
• Household income: $108,794
• Rent vs Own: 16.2% rent · 83.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 307.0

Population outlook (Warren County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,603 people
• By 2030: 259,345 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 277,666 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 289,599 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 311,681 · +25.4%
• By 2100: 302,738 · +21.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 5% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Scotch-Irish 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Warren

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.5) · D 33.8% · R 65.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: -36.1pp · 2024: -31.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.5 2020: R+30.8 2016: R+37.6 2012: R+39.5 2008: R+36.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.63%
• Current HPI: 568.09
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.42%
• Metro: Cincinnati, OH-KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+249.1% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Listed $449,900 Cincy MLS
• 2013-08-09 Sold (Public Records) $188,000 Public Records
• 2013-07-23 Sold (MLS) $188,000 Cincy MLS
• 2013-05-20 Listed $195,000 Cincy MLS
• 2007-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $195,000 Public Records
• 2007-06-29 Sold (MLS) $195,000 Cincy MLS
• 2007-03-20 Listed $204,901 Cincy MLS
• 1998-10-07 Sold (Public Records) $128,866 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,983 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.