7969 Brandon Dr · Spring Arbor, MI 49269

$135,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,056 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1989 0.32 ac lot Est $201k · 33% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.6/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Last chance to grab this manufactured home before the redemption period expires. Closing must happen by July 28, 2026

Key facts

• 0.32 acre lot
• Garage
• Built 1989

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Well water; Natural gas for water heater
• Home design: Ranch-style; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 1989; Vinyl siding; Composition/shingle roof; Foundation: (not specified)
• Exterior features: Paved road access; Lot is 0.32 acres

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; Has cooling
• Interior features: 9 total rooms; Basement (other)
• Laundry & utility: Natural gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $135k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $181 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $135k).
• Recommended offer: $133k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.9% vs local median 2.1% in Spring Arbor — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#308 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Western School District (rural): math 33% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #179 of 540 in MI (top 33%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 28 active listings in the ZIP; 317 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (103 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $933 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jackson County population projected at -13% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($133k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 15 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $116k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $132,975 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.06% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.90%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.76%
• DSCR: 1.26
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $200,640
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7925 King Rd	0.54mi	3/1.0	1,080 (+2%)	19mo	$205,000	$190	52
7946 Village Green Ln	0.30mi	3/2.5	1,190 (+13%)	15mo	$260,000	$218	50
7970 Sunnydell Dr	0.13mi	2/1.5 (-1)	910 (-14%)	22mo	$25,000	$27	46

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.73×
• Total profit: $-10,296
• Equity at exit: $20,129

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $6,035
• Equity at exit: $11,672

Cash invested: $37,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49269

• Home prices YoY: -25.2%
• Active inventory: 28
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,432 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$708
• Tax from tax record: −$186 /mo · $2,229/yr
• Insurance: −$56
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $181

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,202

Max offer price $135,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $258	-5% $220	+0% $181	+5% $143	+10% $105
Rent	-10% $68	-5% $125	+0% $181	+5% $238	+10% $294
Rate	-1.0pp $249	-0.5pp $216	base $181	+0.5pp $146	+1.0pp $111

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $33,750
• Closing costs: $4,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $135,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $135,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $135,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $135,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $135,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $135,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $135,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $135,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $135,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $135,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $135,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $135,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    remarks 117-char remark

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    Last chance to grab this manufactured home before the redemption period expires. Closing must happen by July 28, 2026

14. 2026-06-01
    listed $135,000 Active 1 DOM

    Show marketing remark (117 chars)

    Last chance to grab this manufactured home before the redemption period expires. Closing must happen by July 28, 2026

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,229 · $186/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,229 · $186/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,184
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,562
• − Property taxes: −$2,229
• − Insurance: −$675
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,375
• − Management: −$1,375
• − Depreciation: −$3,927
• Taxable income: $41
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$10
• After-tax cash flow: $2,166/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Western School District
• NCES district ID: 2635940
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $54,441
• Composite: 36.1/100
• National rank: #4755
• State rank: #179 of 540 in MI

Livability — Spring Arbor

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #308
• US rank: #7612

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 4,597
• Population (ZIP): 5,874

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 156,365 people
• By 2030: 153,123 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 144,981 · -7.3%
• By 2050: 135,671 · -13.2%
• By 2075: 113,833 · -27.2%
• By 2100: 86,592 · -44.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Hispanic / Latino 5% Black 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 38.6% · R 59.9% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -23.7pp toward R · 2008: 2.4pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+19.0 2016: R+20.1 2012: R+5.8 2008: D+2.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.10%
• Current HPI: 193.3123
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+238.3% since first listed

46 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $135,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-06-01 Listed $135,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2026-06-01 Listed $135,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-20 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2026-05-20 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-18 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2026-04-18 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-02-26 Listed $119,900 REALCOMP
• 2026-02-26 Listed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $116,400 Public Records
• 2024-02-27 Sold (MLS) $116,400 SW Michigan MLS
• 2024-02-27 Sold (MLS) $116,400 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-02-27 Sold (MLS) $116,400 REALCOMP
• 2024-01-04 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2024-01-04 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-01-04 Contingent — SW Michigan MLS
• 2024-01-02 Listed $112,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2024-01-02 Listed $112,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-01-02 Listed $112,900 REALCOMP
• 2024-01-01 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-01-01 Listing Removed — REALCOMP
• 2023-11-15 Price Changed $112,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-11-15 Price Changed $112,900 REALCOMP
• 2023-11-15 Price Changed $112,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2023-10-17 Price Changed $114,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-16 Price Changed $114,900 REALCOMP
• 2023-10-16 Price Changed $114,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2023-10-02 Price Changed $115,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-10-02 Price Changed $115,500 REALCOMP
• 2023-10-02 Price Changed $115,500 SW Michigan MLS
• 2023-08-29 Relisted — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-08-29 Relisted — REALCOMP
• 2023-08-22 Contingent — REALCOMP
• 2023-08-22 Contingent — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-08-14 Price Changed $115,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2023-08-14 Price Changed $115,900 REALCOMP
• 2023-08-14 Price Changed $115,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2023-07-29 Listed $117,990 REALCOMP
• 2023-07-29 Listed $117,990 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-12-06 Sold (MLS) $38,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-12-06 Sold (MLS) $38,000 REALCOMP
• 2006-12-06 Sold (MLS) $38,000 SW Michigan MLS
• 2006-09-29 Listing Removed — MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-06-19 Listed $39,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2006-06-19 Listed $39,900 REALCOMP
• 2006-06-19 Listed $39,900 SW Michigan MLS

Property tax history

+8.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,229 · +78.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.