11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #277 · Surprise, AZ 85378

$54,300

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,392 sqft · Manufactured · 242 Days on market

Manufactured home 55+ age-restricted Built 1998 Good condition $39/sqft · 37% below area Est $86k · 37% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.5/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +7.5/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +1.1/5.0
• Manufactured-home adj. -5.5

Listing remarks MLS

This Spacious 2Bed 2Bath+Den/Office Has been Freshly Painted Inside and out! with a GREAT floor plan that sits on a corner lot. With a screened in Patio to enjoy morning coffee or quiet evenings. This Cozy retreat Is located In the ACTIVE, GATED 55+Community of Rose Garden.Surrounded by restaurants, hiking, golf courses, and close to shopping! With 2 Large Dog Parks, Pickle Ball, Workout Facility, Swimming Pool/Heated, and much much more!!

Key facts

• Gated community
• Dog parks
• Pickle ball

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• SCREENED IN PATIO
• GATED COMMUNITY
• DOG PARKS
• PICKLE BALL
• WORKOUT FACILITY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $54k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $700 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $54k).
• Recommended offer: $48k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.8% vs local median 3.3% in Surprise — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#19 in AZ, #4,616 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: health & safety D+, amenities D-, commute F.
• Dysart Unified District (4243) (suburban): math 34% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #73 of 249 in AZ (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Thompson Ranch Elementary (math 17% / reading 24%, grade F, #729 of 1,109 statewide, top 67%, 716 students, 74% FRL); Valley Vista High School (math 25% / reading 32%, grade F, #133 of 381 statewide, top 35%, 2,464 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools average 59% FRL vs 41% district-wide (18 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 37% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Dysart Unified District (4243) average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-5.5%/yr); 119 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 41d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 60% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 36,011 units permitted in Maricopa County in 2024 (12,801 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $471 of equity ($375 loan paydown + $96 appreciation (0.2% local appreciation)).
• Maricopa County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (0.2% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 242 days — a 12% lower offer ($48k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (26%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $47,784 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 242 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.51% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.23%
• DSCR: 3.46
• GRM: 3.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $86,000
• List price: $54,300
• Delta: -36.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #204	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,344 (-3%)	3mo	$41,500	$31	86
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #165	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-7%)	6mo	$94,500	$73	84
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #188	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,456 (+5%)	6mo	$80,000	$55	82
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #33	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-3%)	9mo	$112,000	$83	77
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #25	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,320 (-5%)	7mo	$92,000	$70	76
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #134	0.10mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,352 (-3%)	14mo	$75,000	$55	74
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #80	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,536 (+10%)	5mo	$120,000	$78	74
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #274	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,595 (+15%)	1mo	$79,000	$50	70
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #29	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,534 (+10%)	10mo	$73,500	$48	70
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #271	0.23mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,456 (+5%)	12mo	$74,000	$51	66
11596 W Sierra Dawn Blvd #243	0.10mi	2/2.0	1,203 (-14%)	12mo	$135,000	$112	63
16101 N EL Mirage Rd #371	0.69mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,344 (-3%)	5mo	$64,000	$48	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

0.18% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 54.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.60×
• Total profit: $39,464
• Equity at exit: $16,249

10-year hold

• IRR: 55.0%
• Equity multiple: 6.53×
• Total profit: $84,063
• Equity at exit: $19,921

Cash invested: $15,204 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 27 active · 11 under contract
• Months of supply: 13.5 mo (7%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $85,000 ($65/sqft)
• Median days on market: 93 d
• This list price: 19% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: -5.4% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 85378

• Home prices YoY: 0.1%
• Rents YoY: -5.5%
• Active inventory: 119
• Price-to-rent: 3.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,361 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$285
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$68 /mo · $814/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$286
• Net cashflow: $700

Break-even live

Break-even rent $475

Max offer price $54,300

Occupancy floor 44%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $737	-5% $719	+0% $700	+5% $681	+10% $662
Rent	-10% $592	-5% $646	+0% $700	+5% $753	+10% $807
Rate	-1.0pp $727	-0.5pp $714	base $700	+0.5pp $686	+1.0pp $671

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,575
• Closing costs: $1,629
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11408 W Hutton Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,650	$1.21	0d	1	0.27mi
11417 W Amber Trl Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,750	$1.55	115d	1	0.29mi
11417 W Amber Trl Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,650	$1.46	72d	1	0.29mi
11345 W Loma Blanca Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,930	$1.41	184d	1	0.32mi
16723 N 113th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,795	$1.31	10d	1	0.35mi
16723 N 113th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,795	$1.31	40d	1	0.35mi
16431 N 113th Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,850	$1.35	63d	1	0.41mi
16431 N 113th Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,850	$1.35	47d	1	0.41mi
16431 N 113th Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1368	$1,895	$1.39	90d	1	0.41mi
11335 W Crestbrook Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,705	$1.51	107d	1	0.42mi
11548 W Pronghorn Ct Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1563	$1,900	$1.22	10d	1	0.63mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,754	$1.63	36d	1	0.73mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,813	$1.68	153d	1	0.73mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,505	$1.40	0d	1	0.73mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,805	$1.53	2d	1	0.73mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,687	$1.56	38d	1	0.73mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,828	$1.70	125d	1	0.73mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,974	$1.67	40d	1	0.73mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,837	$1.70	139d	1	0.73mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	2.0	2.0	1078	$1,750	$1.62	55d	1	0.73mi
17447 N Avenue of the Arts Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1183	$1,841	$1.56	24d	1	0.73mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1737	$1,695	$0.98	165d	1	0.75mi
17590 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1737	$1,695	$0.98	146d	1	0.75mi
15216 N B Ct El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1132	$1,695	$1.50	38d	1	0.77mi
12121 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,999	$1.19	165d	1	0.80mi
12121 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,999	$1.19	1d	1	0.80mi
12134 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,950	$1.16	10d	1	0.81mi
12134 W Ironwood St El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1680	$1,699	$1.01	15d	1	0.81mi
17716 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1847	$1,990	$1.08	99d	1	0.82mi
16222 N 123rd Dr Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	879	$1,700	$1.93	10d	1	0.90mi
17970 N 114th Ln Surprise, AZ	3.0	3.0	1388	$1,869	$1.35	38d	1	0.96mi
15620 N El Mirage Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1310	$1,675	$1.28	7d	8	1.03mi
15620 N El Mirage Rd Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.5	1310	$1,649	$1.26	28d	1	1.03mi
11762 W Banff Ln El Mirage, AZ	3.0	2.0	1132	$1,800	$1.59	55d	1	1.03mi
16629 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1301	$1,695	$1.30	7d	1	1.06mi
18078 N 113th Ave Surprise, AZ	3.0	2.0	1536	$1,897	$1.24	3d	1	1.10mi
15427 N Jerry St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	920	$1,450	$1.58	126d	1	1.12mi
15427 N Jerry St Surprise, AZ	2.0	1.5	920	$1,450	$1.58	10d	1	1.12mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1267	$1,695	$1.34	1d	9	1.16mi
16520 N Greasewood St Surprise, AZ	2.0–3.0	2.5	1267	$1,695	$1.34	88d	14	1.16mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-11-08
   days on market $54,300 Active 242 DOM
2. 2026-11-07
   days on market $54,300 Active 241 DOM
3. 2026-11-06
   days on market $54,300 Active 240 DOM
4. 2026-11-05
   days on market $54,300 Active 239 DOM
5. 2026-11-04
   days on market $54,300 Active 238 DOM
6. 2026-11-02
   price $54,300 Active 236 DOM
7. 2026-11-02
   days on market $65,000 Active 236 DOM
8. 2026-11-01
   days on market $65,000 Active 235 DOM
9. 2026-10-31
   days on market $65,000 Active 234 DOM
10. 2026-10-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 233 DOM
11. 2026-10-29
    days on market $65,000 Active 232 DOM
12. 2026-10-28
    days on market $65,000 Active 231 DOM
13. 2026-10-27
    days on market $65,000 Active 230 DOM
14. 2026-10-26
    days on market $65,000 Active 229 DOM
15. 2026-10-26
    days on market $65,000 Active 228 DOM
16. 2026-10-24
    days on market $65,000 Active 227 DOM
17. 2026-10-23
    days on market $65,000 Active 226 DOM
18. 2026-10-22
    days on market $65,000 Active 225 DOM
19. 2026-10-21
    days on market $65,000 Active 224 DOM
20. 2026-10-20
    days on market $65,000 Active 223 DOM
21. 2026-10-19
    days on market $65,000 Active 222 DOM
22. 2026-10-18
    days on market $65,000 Active 221 DOM
23. 2026-10-17
    days on market $65,000 Active 220 DOM
24. 2026-10-16
    days on market $65,000 Active 219 DOM
25. 2026-10-15
    days on market $65,000 Active 218 DOM
26. 2026-10-14
    days on market $65,000 Active 217 DOM
27. 2026-10-13
    days on market $65,000 Active 216 DOM
28. 2026-10-12
    days on market $65,000 Active 215 DOM
29. 2026-10-11
    days on market $65,000 Active 214 DOM
30. 2026-10-10
    days on market $65,000 Active 213 DOM
31. 2026-10-09
    days on market $65,000 Active 212 DOM
32. 2026-10-08
    days on market $65,000 Active 211 DOM
33. 2026-10-07
    days on market $65,000 Active 210 DOM
34. 2026-10-06
    days on market $65,000 Active 209 DOM
35. 2026-10-05
    days on market $65,000 Active 208 DOM
36. 2026-10-04
    days on market $65,000 Active 207 DOM
37. 2026-10-04
    days on market $65,000 Active 206 DOM
38. 2026-10-02
    days on market $65,000 Active 205 DOM
39. 2026-10-01
    days on market $65,000 Active 204 DOM
40. 2026-09-30
    days on market $65,000 Active 203 DOM
41. 2026-09-29
    days on market $65,000 Active 202 DOM
42. 2026-09-28
    days on market $65,000 Active 201 DOM
43. 2026-09-27
    days on market $65,000 Active 200 DOM
44. 2026-09-26
    days on market $65,000 Active 199 DOM
45. 2026-09-25
    days on market $65,000 Active 198 DOM
46. 2026-09-24
    days on market $65,000 Active 197 DOM
47. 2026-09-23
    days on market $65,000 Active 196 DOM
48. 2026-09-22
    days on market $65,000 Active 195 DOM
49. 2026-09-21
    days on market $65,000 Active 194 DOM
50. 2026-09-20
    days on market $65,000 Active 193 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,329
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,042
• − Property taxes: −$814
• − Insurance: −$272
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,306
• − Management: −$1,306
• − Depreciation: −$1,580
• Taxable income: $8,009
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,922
• After-tax cash flow: $6,475/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $6,960–$20,880 screening

This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 2-bathroom manufactured home is located in a gated community with excellent amenities. Fresh painting and landscaping improvements can further enhance its appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior — Fresh painting enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics, attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhancing the landscaping can improve the home's curb appeal and attract more potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Both HVAC maintenance — Regular HVAC maintenance ensures the system runs efficiently, reducing energy costs and attracting more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Updating the interior with new fixtures and decor can make the home more appealing and attract more buyers and renters. ↑
• Both Exterior updates — Updating the exterior with new siding or a fresh coat of paint can significantly enhance the home's curb appeal and attract more buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 24/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Thompson Ranch Elementary F AZ #729/1,109 Nat'l #33,158/41,679 High Valley Vista High School F AZ #133/381 Nat'l #11,681/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dysart Unified District (4243)
• NCES district ID: 0402690
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $58,033
• Composite: 32.76/100
• National rank: #5634
• State rank: #73 of 249 in AZ

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Surprise

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #19
• US rank: #4616

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Surprise, AZ
• County: Maricopa County · 4,979,203 people
• City population: 160,031
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,765
• Household income: $56,444
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 9% of renters

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Population outlook (Maricopa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 4,979,203 people
• By 2030: 5,378,229 · +8.0%
• By 2040: 6,156,598 · +23.6%
• By 2050: 6,872,376 · +38.0%
• By 2075: 8,401,270 · +68.7%
• By 2100: 9,247,439 · +85.7%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 54% Hispanic / Latino 38% Two or more races 17% Black 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31% Cuban 3%
• Languages at home: 73% English-only · Spanish 22% Arabic 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Maricopa

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.7% · R 51.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.1pp toward D · 2008: -10.6pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+2.2 2016: R+3.5 2012: R+12.0 2008: R+10.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 0.18%
• Current HPI: 287.1228
• Rent YoY: ▼ -5.53%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-6.1% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-09 Price Changed $69,000 ARMLS
• 2026-03-10 Listed $73,000 ARMLS
• 2021-04-28 Listing Removed — ARMLS
• 2021-03-30 Price Changed $72,000 ARMLS
• 2021-01-28 Listed $73,500 ARMLS