133 Coyote Creek Ct · Abilene, TX 79602

$279,990

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,203 sqft · SingleFamily · 100 Days on market

Built 2026 3,055 sqft lot Est $271k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.0/30.0
• DSCR +7.0/10.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• 1% rule +5.8/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

MLS# 21120766 - Built by NHC - Ready Now! ~ The Harrison Plan from our Liberty Series offers a perfect blend of comfort, practicality, and exceptional value. This 2-story home features 4 bedrooms, 2.5 bathrooms, a 2-car garage, and 2,203 square feet of thoughtfully designed living space. As you step inside, you’ll pass the versatile flex room before reaching the staircase to the upper level, a convenient closet, and a half bathroom. The heart of the home is the open kitchen and living area, complete with a central island, a dining area, and a spacious family room — perfect for entertaining or relaxing with loved ones. Upstairs, the private primary suite awaits, featuring an en s

Key facts

• 3,055 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $446 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
• Recommended offer: $255k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.2% vs local median 6.7% in Abilene — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#142 in TX, #4,037 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, crime D, commute F.
• Wylie ISD (rural): math 63% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #32 of 826 in TX (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 17% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+33.5%/yr); 370 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 508 units permitted in Taylor County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 40% of the median local income ($90k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Taylor County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $78k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 100 days — a 9% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $254,790 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 100 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.08% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.83%
• DSCR: 1.30
• GRM: 7.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $270,969
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
133 Coyote Creek Ct	0.00mi	4/2.5	2,203 (0%)	1mo	$279,990	$127	99
3510 Silver Springs Ct	0.40mi	4/2.5	2,203 (0%)	1mo	$277,990	$126	81
209 Coyote Crk	0.41mi	4/2.5	2,203 (0%)	1mo	$258,990	$118	80
132 Dotty Lou	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,001 (-9%)	3mo	$245,490	$123	56
220 Dotty Lou	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,002 (-9%)	3mo	$237,280	$119	56
156 Dotty Lou	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,001 (-9%)	3mo	$245,211	$123	56
107 Dotty Lou	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,001 (-9%)	3mo	$245,990	$123	55
120 Dotty Lou	0.57mi	4/2.5	2,002 (-9%)	4mo	$248,488	$124	55
219 Polasek Dr	0.63mi	4/2.5	2,001 (-9%)	0mo	$260,990	$130	55
162 Dotty Lou St	0.57mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,408 (+9%)	3mo	$271,489	$113	51
138 Dotty Lou	0.57mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,408 (+9%)	3mo	$266,990	$111	50
517 Beretta	0.69mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,970 (-11%)	3mo	$362,500	$184	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.99×
• Total profit: $-965
• Equity at exit: $41,747

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.38×
• Total profit: $108,456
• Equity at exit: $24,208

Cash invested: $78,397 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79602

• Home prices YoY: -19.6%
• Rents YoY: 33.5%
• Active inventory: 370
• Price-to-rent: 7.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,014 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$633
• Net cashflow: $446

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,449

Max offer price $279,990

Occupancy floor 80%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $69,998
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
609 Marlin Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1925	$3,250	$1.69	18d	1	0.85mi
801 Big Water Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1537	$2,800	$1.82	13d	1	1.13mi
3926 Duke Ln Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1612	$2,250	$1.40	7d	1	1.18mi
1342 Lewis and Clark Trl Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1572	$6,900	$4.39	13d	1	1.38mi
1341 Briar Cliff Path Abilene, TX	4.0	2.0	1712	$3,100	$1.81	13d	1	1.39mi
1097 Lytle Creek Dr Abilene, TX	3.0	2.0	1456	$2,895	$1.99	13d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-03-25
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-24
   status Active
3. 2026-03-11
   status Pending
4. 2026-03-06
   price $279,990
5. 2026-02-11
   price $279,490
6. 2025-11-25
   listed $277,990 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,172
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$4,200
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,894
• − Management: −$2,894
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable income: $956
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$229
• After-tax cash flow: $5,127/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Wylie ISD
• NCES district ID: 4846500
• Math proficiency: 63% ▼ -12.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $78,248
• Composite: 55.86/100
• National rank: #1206
• State rank: #32 of 826 in TX

Livability — Abilene

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #142
• US rank: #4037

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abilene, TX
• County: Taylor County · 136,672 people
• City population: 136,672
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• Population (ZIP): 27,425
• Household income: $89,551
• Rent vs Own: 24.3% rent · 75.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 338.0

Population outlook (Taylor County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 145,270 people
• By 2030: 150,050 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 159,417 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 168,883 · +16.3%
• By 2075: 194,436 · +33.8%
• By 2100: 203,163 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Hispanic / Latino 22% Two or more races 12% Black 10% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 19%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Other Asian/Pacific 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Taylor

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+49.8) · D 24.6% · R 74.4% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.2pp toward R · 2008: -45.6pp · 2024: -49.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+49.8 2020: R+45.3 2016: R+51.1 2012: R+53.6 2008: R+45.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -46.04%
• Current HPI: 189.3098
• Rent YoY: ▲ 33.46%
• Metro: Abilene, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.7% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-25 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-24 Relisted — NTREIS
• 2026-03-11 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-03-06 Price Changed $279,990 NTREIS
• 2026-02-11 Price Changed $279,490 NTREIS
• 2025-11-25 Listed $277,990 NTREIS