2829 N Carolina Rd · Crystal River, FL 34428

$120,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,512 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 2001 1.18 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Lender owned property. 3/2 sitting on 1.19 of an acre located in beautiful Citrus Acres. Offering a country setting yet minutes to town. This is a must see mobile is in great shape only minor very minor work needed on this amazing deal. One care attached garage, storm cellar, and utility shed go with. Paved drive HUGE backyard.

Key facts

• 1.19 acres
• Excellent location
• Spacious layout

Tags

• 1.19 ACRES
• SPACIOUS LAYOUT
• EXCELLENT LOCATION
• BOATING FISHING KAYAKING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Paved driveway
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured home (double wide); Residential property
• Construction: Asphalt shingle roof
• Exterior features: Cleared lot; Paved road access

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Refrigerator; Water heater
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Wall/window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Walk-in closet(s); Primary bedroom on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $896 ($11k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Cap rate 15.9% vs local median 2.1% in Crystal River — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#603 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Citrus (rural): math 49% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #44 of 73 in FL (top 60%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Crystal River Primary School (math 45% / reading 55%, grade D+, #1,070 of 2,144 statewide, top 51%, 654 students, 70% FRL); Crystal River Middle School (math 49% / reading 47%, grade C-, #286 of 571 statewide, top 50%, 900 students, 64% FRL); Crystal River High School (math 31% / reading 44%, grade F, #336 of 667 statewide, top 51%, 1,249 students, 56% FRL).
• Market conditions: 320 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,443 units permitted in Citrus County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,142/mo this rent would consume 51% of the median local household income ($51k/yr) (locally 264% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Citrus County population projected to shrink 10% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 4 sale attempts since 18y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $120k implies a 107% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $120,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.92%
• Cash-on-cash: 34.37%
• DSCR: 2.53
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $37,621
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.5%
• Equity multiple: 4.16×
• Total profit: $106,276
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34428

• Home prices YoY: -15.3%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,142 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$51 /mo · $612/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$450
• Net cashflow: $896

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,009

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 53%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1328 NE 5th Ave Crystal River, FL	3.0	2.0	1946	$2,000	$1.03	21d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-05-22
   listed $120,000 Active
2. 2013-02-11
   soldstatus $58,000
3. 2010-08-17
   soldstatus $45,000 329-char remark

   Show marketing remark (329 chars)

   Lender owned property. 3/2 sitting on 1.19 of an acre located in beautiful Citrus Acres. Offering a country setting yet minutes to town. This is a must see mobile is in great shape only minor very minor work needed on this amazing deal. One care attached garage, storm cellar, and utility shed go with. Paved drive HUGE backyard.

4. 2010-07-19
   listed $55,900 329-char remark

   Show marketing remark (329 chars)

   Lender owned property. 3/2 sitting on 1.19 of an acre located in beautiful Citrus Acres. Offering a country setting yet minutes to town. This is a must see mobile is in great shape only minor very minor work needed on this amazing deal. One care attached garage, storm cellar, and utility shed go with. Paved drive HUGE backyard.

5. 2010-07-17
   historical
6. 2010-03-16
   listed $55,900
7. 2009-04-06
   historical
8. 2008-10-06
   listed $139,000
9. 1996-12-01
   soldstatus $38,000
10. 1991-12-01
    soldstatus $32,500
11. 1987-03-01
    soldstatus $28,500
12. 1980-05-01
    soldstatus $28,500
13. 1976-12-01
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $612 · $51/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $996 · $83/mo
• Expected delta: +$384/yr (+$32/mo · 62.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 9/10 Extreme FEMA zone X (shaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,709
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$612
• − Insurance: −$1,398
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,057
• − Management: −$2,057
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $9,374
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,250
• After-tax cash flow: $8,500/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Citrus
• NCES district ID: 1200270
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▼ -6.00%
• Median HH income: $38,618
• Composite: 41.28/100
• National rank: #3519
• State rank: #44 of 73 in FL

Livability — Crystal River

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #603
• US rank: #11564

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B- Health & safety C- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Citrus County · 111,314 people
• City population: 10,163
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• Population (ZIP): 10,163
• Household income: $50,779
• Rent vs Own: 22.8% rent · 77.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 264.0

Population outlook (Citrus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,622 people
• By 2030: 136,886 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 132,009 · -4.8%
• By 2050: 125,196 · -9.7%
• By 2075: 108,570 · -21.7%
• By 2100: 84,454 · -39.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 5% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Citrus

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.9) · D 26.8% · R 72.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -29.8pp toward R · 2008: -16.1pp · 2024: -45.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.9 2020: R+41.0 2016: R+39.7 2012: R+21.9 2008: R+16.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.32%
• Current HPI: 317.7637
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Homosassa Springs, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+700.0% since first listed

13 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $120,000 RACC
• 2013-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records
• 2010-08-17 Sold (MLS) $45,000 RACC
• 2010-07-19 Listed $55,900 RACC
• 2010-07-17 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2010-03-16 Listed $55,900 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-04-06 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2008-10-06 Listed $139,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1996-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 1991-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $32,500 Public Records
• 1987-03-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,500 Public Records
• 1980-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $28,500 Public Records
• 1976-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $612 · +9.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.