403 Eastwood Dr · Lexington-Fayette, KY 40475

$92,995

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Manufactured · 50 Days on market

Built 2026 $467/mo HOA · 29% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.2/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

2026 Champion Prime Apex - 3 Bed, 2 Bath * Exterior home photo is representation, not actual home This brand new double width Apex model features a spacious 28×56' layout with an open living area, modern kitchen, and three comfortable bedrooms. The bright interior, clean finishes, and efficient floor plan make this home ideal for comfortable everyday living in a peaceful community setting.

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 50 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 403 Eastwood Dr, Richmond, KY 40475
• Financial info: List price $92,995
• HOA & community: Association fee approximately $467

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family property; Active listing
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1,568

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 bathrooms (total)
• Interior features: Spec home (Apex/Adams plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $93k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $169 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $93k).
• Recommended offer: $90k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.8% in Lexington-Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Madison County (town): math 31% / reading 47% proficiency, ranked #35 of 165 in KY (top 21%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.8%/yr); 487 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 453 units permitted in Madison County in 2024 (64 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($63k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $643 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Madison County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($90k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 29% of rent.

Recommended offer $90,205 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.74% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.78%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.84×
• Total profit: $-4,294
• Equity at exit: $13,866

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $10,180
• Equity at exit: $8,041

Cash invested: $26,039 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40475

• Home prices YoY: -22.7%
• Rents YoY: 2.8%
• Active inventory: 487
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,618 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$488
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$116 /mo · $1,395/yr
• Insurance: −$39
• HOA: −$467
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$340
• Net cashflow: $169

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,405

Max offer price $92,995

Occupancy floor 85%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $233	-5% $201	+0% $169	+5% $137	+10% $105
Rent	-10% $41	-5% $105	+0% $169	+5% $233	+10% $297
Rate	-1.0pp $216	-0.5pp $193	base $169	+0.5pp $145	+1.0pp $120

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $23,249
• Closing costs: $2,790
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
100 Foxborough Way Richmond, KY	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1200	$2,100	$1.75	14d	1	0.75mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $467 · $5,604/yr

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $92,995 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $92,995 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $92,995 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $92,995 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $92,995 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $92,995 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $92,995 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $92,995 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $92,995 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $92,995 Active 36 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $92,995 Active 35 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $92,995 Active 34 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $92,995 Active 33 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,995 Active 32 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $92,995 Active 31 DOM
16. 2026-04-29
    listed $92,995 Active 400-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,421
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,209
• − Property taxes: −$1,395
• − Insurance: −$465
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,554
• − Management: −$1,554
• − HOA: −$5,604
• − Depreciation: −$2,705
• Taxable income: $935
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$224
• After-tax cash flow: $1,802/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Madison County
• NCES district ID: 2103720
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 47% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $43,590
• Composite: 32.99/100
• National rank: #5580
• State rank: #35 of 165 in KY

Livability — Lexington-Fayette

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Madison County · 93,568 people
• City population: 321,882
• Metro: Richmond-Berea, KY
• Population (ZIP): 65,961
• Household income: $63,050
• Rent vs Own: 42.1% rent · 57.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 2031.0

Population outlook (Madison County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 99,241 people
• By 2030: 104,927 · +5.7%
• By 2040: 116,079 · +17.0%
• By 2050: 127,293 · +28.3%
• By 2075: 155,644 · +56.8%
• By 2100: 176,488 · +77.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Two or more races 5% Black 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Madison

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+30.9) · D 33.6% · R 64.5% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.4pp toward R · 2008: -22.4pp · 2024: -30.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+30.9 2020: R+26.8 2016: R+31.2 2012: R+28.9 2008: R+22.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -72.04%
• Current HPI: 245.8489
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.82%
• Metro: Richmond-Berea, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B