8030 Stiner Grv · Ball Ground, GA 30107

$460,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,132 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 42 Days on market

Built 2022 0.34 ac lot $216/sqft · 27% below area Est $634k · 27% under $100/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +5.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.1/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this exquisite ranch home, beautifully situated on a corner lot in the highly sought-after River Rock community. Set on the largest lot on the street, this meticulously maintained residence perfectly balances style and functionality with its open-concept layout, bathed in natural light. Enjoy the front covered porch for space to escape in the evening or morning for coffee. Off the welcoming foyer, you'll find a versatile flex space ideal for a 4th bedroom, den, or office. The gourmet kitchen, complete with stone counters, stained cabinets, stainless steel appliances, and a walk-in pantry, open floor plan to this spacious family room, making it the central hub for gatherings. The serene primary suite is a peaceful retreat, featuring a double vanity, a walk-in shower with a seat, a soaking tub framed by a stained-glass window that floods the room with natural light, and a large walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms share a full bathroom, completing the split bedroom floor plan. Step outside to a large, fenced backyard with a back patio, perfect for entertaining. The expansive driveway accommodates up to 4 cars, along with a convenient side-entry 2-car garage. Many nice features such as the trey ceiling in the primary adds more open concept plus the living family space offers a nice trey ceiling as well. Additionally, a whole-house water purification system and a Reverse Osmosis system for drinking water have been installed for your comfort. Located in a well-maintained and safe community, River Rock boasts luxury amenities such as a playground, swimming pools, tennis courts, a clubhouse, and scenic walking trails. The neighborhood also hosts a variety of events and festivals throughout the year, fostering a lively and welcoming atmosphere. Schedule your private showing today to experience the charm, tranquility, and extensive upgrades that make this home truly exceptional!

Key facts

• Front covered porch
• Flex space
• Gourmet kitchen

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• LARGEST LOT
• FRONT COVERED PORCH
• FLEX SPACE
• GOURMET KITCHEN
• WALK-IN PANTRY

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $460k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-545 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $364k (20.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $325k (29.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $325k (29.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 1.5% in Ball Ground — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#80 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Forsyth County (suburban): math 62% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #5 of 174 in GA (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Matt Elementary School (math 58% / reading 53%, grade C, #173 of 1,228 statewide, top 14%, 1,116 students, 15% FRL); Liberty Middle School (math 48% / reading 59%, grade C+, #56 of 470 statewide, top 12%, 1,032 students, 14% FRL); North Forsyth High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #140 of 424 statewide, top 35%, 2,065 students, 14% FRL) — zoned schools at 14% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 46% at this address vs 62% district-wide (-16 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Forsyth County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: 320 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 0d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 2,525 units permitted in Forsyth County in 2024 (810 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($111k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Forsyth County population projected at +71% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 42 days — a 3% lower offer ($446k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 16 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $325,443 (29.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 42 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.71% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.08%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $634,473
• List price: $460,000
• Delta: -27.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
7920 Scenic Ridge Way	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,128 (-0%)	15mo	$575,000	$270	77
8010 Veranda Curv	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,076 (-3%)	20mo	$532,000	$256	69
7940 Garnet Trce	0.20mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,060 (-3%)	15mo	$555,000	$269	68
8085 River Chase Dr	0.63mi	3/3.5 (-1)	1,988 (-7%)	2mo	$410,000	$206	47
8645 River Rock Ct	0.63mi	4/3.5	1,920 (-10%)	14mo	$440,000	$229	36
8460 River Hill Commons Dr	0.70mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,862 (-13%)	10mo	$365,000	$196	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-109,225
• Equity at exit: $68,587

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.08×
• Total profit: $-139,746
• Equity at exit: $39,772

Cash invested: $128,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30107

• Home prices YoY: -18.9%
• Active inventory: 320
• Price-to-rent: 11.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,254 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,412
• Tax from tax record: −$412 /mo · $4,942/yr
• Insurance: −$192
• HOA: −$100
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$683
• Net cashflow: $-545

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,944

Max offer price $363,766

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-284	-5% $-415	+0% $-545	+5% $-675	+10% $-805
Rent	-10% $-802	-5% $-673	+0% $-545	+5% $-416	+10% $-288
Rate	-1.0pp $-313	-0.5pp $-428	base $-545	+0.5pp $-664	+1.0pp $-785

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $115,000
• Closing costs: $13,800
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8085 Brewton Bnd Ball Ground, GA	5.0	3.0	2960	$3,200	$1.08	0d	1	0.17mi
8175 Scenic Ridge Way Ball Ground, GA	5.0	4.5	2745	$3,500	$1.28	0d	1	0.22mi
8335 River Hill Commons Dr Ball Ground, GA	4.0	2.5	2612	$2,401	$0.92	0d	1	0.88mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $100 · $1,200/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 43 events

1. 2026-04-16
   listed $460,000 New 1918-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1918 chars)

   Welcome to this exquisite ranch home, beautifully situated on a corner lot in the highly sought-after River Rock community. Set on the largest lot on the street, this meticulously maintained residence perfectly balances style and functionality with its open-concept layout, bathed in natural light. Enjoy the front covered porch for space to escape in the evening or morning for coffee. Off the welcoming foyer, you'll find a versatile flex space ideal for a 4th bedroom, den, or office. The gourmet kitchen, complete with stone counters, stained cabinets, stainless steel appliances, and a walk-in pantry, open floor plan to this spacious family room, making it the central hub for gatherings. The serene primary suite is a peaceful retreat, featuring a double vanity, a walk-in shower with a seat, a soaking tub framed by a stained-glass window that floods the room with natural light, and a large walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms share a full bathroom, completing the split bedroom floor plan. Step outside to a large, fenced backyard with a back patio, perfect for entertaining. The expansive driveway accommodates up to 4 cars, along with a convenient side-entry 2-car garage. Many nice features such as the trey ceiling in the primary adds more open concept plus the living family space offers a nice trey ceiling as well. Additionally, a whole-house water purification system and a Reverse Osmosis system for drinking water have been installed for your comfort. Located in a well-maintained and safe community, River Rock boasts luxury amenities such as a playground, swimming pools, tennis courts, a clubhouse, and scenic walking trails. The neighborhood also hosts a variety of events and festivals throughout the year, fostering a lively and welcoming atmosphere. Schedule your private showing today to experience the charm, tranquility, and extensive upgrades that make this home truly exceptional!

2. 2026-04-16
   listed $460,000 Active 1918-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1918 chars)

   Welcome to this exquisite ranch home, beautifully situated on a corner lot in the highly sought-after River Rock community. Set on the largest lot on the street, this meticulously maintained residence perfectly balances style and functionality with its open-concept layout, bathed in natural light. Enjoy the front covered porch for space to escape in the evening or morning for coffee. Off the welcoming foyer, you'll find a versatile flex space ideal for a 4th bedroom, den, or office. The gourmet kitchen, complete with stone counters, stained cabinets, stainless steel appliances, and a walk-in pantry, open floor plan to this spacious family room, making it the central hub for gatherings. The serene primary suite is a peaceful retreat, featuring a double vanity, a walk-in shower with a seat, a soaking tub framed by a stained-glass window that floods the room with natural light, and a large walk-in closet. Two additional bedrooms share a full bathroom, completing the split bedroom floor plan. Step outside to a large, fenced backyard with a back patio, perfect for entertaining. The expansive driveway accommodates up to 4 cars, along with a convenient side-entry 2-car garage. Many nice features such as the trey ceiling in the primary adds more open concept plus the living family space offers a nice trey ceiling as well. Additionally, a whole-house water purification system and a Reverse Osmosis system for drinking water have been installed for your comfort. Located in a well-maintained and safe community, River Rock boasts luxury amenities such as a playground, swimming pools, tennis courts, a clubhouse, and scenic walking trails. The neighborhood also hosts a variety of events and festivals throughout the year, fostering a lively and welcoming atmosphere. Schedule your private showing today to experience the charm, tranquility, and extensive upgrades that make this home truly exceptional!

3. 2025-12-01
   historical
4. 2025-07-25
   price $487,500
5. 2025-07-08
   listed $490,000 New
6. 2025-07-07
   historical
7. 2025-07-07
   historical
8. 2025-05-27
   price $490,000
9. 2025-05-27
   price $490,000
10. 2025-05-14
    price $500,000
11. 2025-05-14
    price $500,000
12. 2025-05-03
    listed $515,000 Active
13. 2025-05-02
    listed $515,000 New
14. 2025-05-02
    historical
15. 2025-05-02
    historical
16. 2025-04-10
    listed $525,000 Active
17. 2025-04-10
    listed $525,000 New
18. 2025-04-09
    historical
19. 2025-04-09
    historical
20. 2025-04-02
    listed $540,000 Active
21. 2025-03-31
    historical
22. 2025-03-31
    listed $540,000 New
23. 2025-03-28
    historical
24. 2025-03-28
    historical
25. 2025-03-05
    price $549,900
26. 2025-03-05
    price $549,900
27. 2025-02-06
    listed $559,900 Active
28. 2025-02-06
    listed $559,900 New
29. 2024-12-15
    historical
30. 2024-12-15
    historical
31. 2024-11-05
    price $559,900
32. 2024-11-05
    price $559,900
33. 2024-10-17
    listed $575,000 Active
34. 2024-10-17
    listed $575,000 New
35. 2024-09-27
    historical
36. 2024-09-27
    historical
37. 2024-08-22
    listed $575,000 Active
38. 2024-08-22
    listed $575,000 New
39. 2022-08-18
    soldstatus $490,687 Closed
40. 2022-06-24
    status Pending
41. 2022-06-10
    historical
42. 2022-06-10
    listed $490,687
43. 2022-03-09
    soldstatus $2,835,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,942 · $412/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,942 · $412/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,053
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,767
• − Property taxes: −$4,942
• − Insurance: −$2,300
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,124
• − Management: −$3,124
• − HOA: −$1,200
• − Depreciation: −$13,382
• Taxable loss: −$14,786
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,549
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,988/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forsyth County
• NCES district ID: 1302220
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $89,763
• Composite: 56.54/100
• National rank: #1151
• State rank: #5 of 174 in GA

Livability — Ball Ground

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #80
• US rank: #6900

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Cherokee County · 289,977 people
• City population: 19,134
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 19,134
• Household income: $110,811
• Rent vs Own: 10.6% rent · 89.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 93.0

Population outlook (Forsyth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 294,519 people
• By 2030: 336,546 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 421,220 · +43.0%
• By 2050: 502,754 · +70.7%
• By 2075: 683,179 · +132.0%
• By 2100: 792,174 · +169.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Forsyth

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+33.1) · D 32.9% · R 66.0% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +24.9pp toward D · 2008: -58.0pp · 2024: -33.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+33.1 2020: R+33.2 2016: R+47.7 2012: R+62.9 2008: R+58.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.64%
• Current HPI: 282.4155
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Alpharetta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-83.8% since first listed

43 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-16 Listed $460,000 FMLS
• 2026-04-16 Listed $460,000 GAMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-07-25 Price Changed $487,500 GAMLS
• 2025-07-08 Listed $490,000 GAMLS
• 2025-07-07 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2025-07-07 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-05-27 Price Changed $490,000 FMLS
• 2025-05-27 Price Changed $490,000 GAMLS
• 2025-05-14 Price Changed $500,000 FMLS
• 2025-05-14 Price Changed $500,000 GAMLS
• 2025-05-03 Listed $515,000 FMLS
• 2025-05-02 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-05-02 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2025-05-02 Listed $515,000 GAMLS
• 2025-04-10 Listed $525,000 GAMLS
• 2025-04-10 Listed $525,000 FMLS
• 2025-04-09 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-04-09 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2025-04-02 Listed $540,000 FMLS
• 2025-03-31 Coming Soon — FMLS
• 2025-03-31 Listed $540,000 GAMLS
• 2025-03-28 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-03-28 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2025-03-05 Price Changed $549,900 GAMLS
• 2025-03-05 Price Changed $549,900 FMLS
• 2025-02-06 Listed $559,900 GAMLS
• 2025-02-06 Listed $559,900 FMLS
• 2024-12-15 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2024-12-15 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2024-11-05 Price Changed $559,900 GAMLS
• 2024-11-05 Price Changed $559,900 FMLS
• 2024-10-17 Listed $575,000 GAMLS
• 2024-10-17 Listed $575,000 FMLS
• 2024-09-27 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2024-09-27 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2024-08-22 Listed $575,000 GAMLS
• 2024-08-22 Listed $575,000 FMLS
• 2022-08-18 Sold (MLS) $490,687 FMLS
• 2022-06-24 Pending — FMLS
• 2022-06-10 Listed $490,687 FMLS
• 2022-06-10 Listing Removed — FMLS
• 2022-03-09 Sold (Public Records) $2,835,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+10.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,942 · +2.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.