390 Quail Ct · Rio Rico, AZ 85648

$247,500

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,783 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 68 Days on market

Built 1981 0.85 ac lot $139/sqft · at area comps Est $254k · at est. ↓ 8% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.8/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.6/15.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.7/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Stunning ranch-style retreat on 0.85 acres! Nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac in Rio Rico Estates, this bright 3-bed, 2-bath home delivers big-sky living with mountain views and room to roam. Inside, a spacious living room flows into the dining area, while the kitchen boasts a center island and pantry. Outside, the oversized covered patio is perfect for BBQs, sunset gatherings, or simply soaking up the Arizona sunshine. Slump-block charm, 2-car garage, no HOA, and privacy galore--this family favorite is ready for your next chapter!

Key facts

• 0.85 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1981

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $248k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-24 ($-292/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $243k (1.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $198k (20.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $198k (20.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.1% in Rio Rico — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 63/100 on livability (#115 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458) (town): math 12% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #184 of 249 in AZ (top 74%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 62% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 410 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 340 units permitted in Santa Cruz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $26k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $25k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Santa Cruz County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $69k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$43k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 68 days — a 6% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 5y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $28k (10%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 8→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $198,054 (20.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 68 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 20% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.80% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.17%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.42%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 10.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $253,515
• List price: $247,500
• Delta: -2.37%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
387 Rio Rico Dr	0.21mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,725 (-3%)	1mo	$315,000	$183	79
402 Cancun Corte	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,710 (-4%)	2mo	$335,000	$196	70
1156 Adobe Ct	0.43mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,642 (-8%)	0mo	$290,000	$177	61
454 Zoo Ct	0.63mi	3/2.5	1,748 (-2%)	10mo	$330,000	$189	57
402 Sykes Cir	0.44mi	3/2.0	1,584 (-11%)	17mo	$279,000	$176	46
1226 Circulo Aguilar	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,611 (-10%)	17mo	$270,000	$168	43
1160 Hodges Cir	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,589 (-11%)	17mo	$234,500	$148	39

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 24.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $133,199
• Equity at exit: $222,968

10-year hold

• IRR: 21.3%
• Equity multiple: 6.68×
• Total profit: $393,381
• Equity at exit: $480,838

Cash invested: $69,300 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85648

• Home prices YoY: 21.0%
• Active inventory: 410
• Price-to-rent: 10.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,981 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,298
• Tax from tax record: −$188 /mo · $2,255/yr
• Insurance: −$103
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$416
• Net cashflow: $-24

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,011

Max offer price $243,198

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $61,875
• Closing costs: $7,425
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
392 Falcon Ct Rio Rico, AZ	4.0	2.0	2037	$2,000	$0.98	1d	1	0.12mi
401 Via Capri Rio Rico, AZ	3.0	2.0	2177	$1,950	$0.90	20d	1	1.42mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $247,500 Active 68 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $247,500 Active 67 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $247,500 Active 66 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $247,500 Active 65 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $247,500 Active 63 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $247,500 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $247,500 Active 59 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $247,500 Active 58 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $247,500 Active 57 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    pricedays on market $247,500 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $275,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $275,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $275,000 Active 51 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $275,000 Active 50 DOM
15. 2026-04-11
    listed $275,000 Active 533-char remark

    Show marketing remark (533 chars)

    Stunning ranch-style retreat on 0.85 acres! Nestled on a quiet cul-de-sac in Rio Rico Estates, this bright 3-bed, 2-bath home delivers big-sky living with mountain views and room to roam. Inside, a spacious living room flows into the dining area, while the kitchen boasts a center island and pantry. Outside, the oversized covered patio is perfect for BBQs, sunset gatherings, or simply soaking up the Arizona sunshine. Slump-block charm, 2-car garage, no HOA, and privacy galore--this family favorite is ready for your next chapter!

16. 2022-01-31
    soldstatus $265,000 Closed 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Beautiful ranch style home on .85 ac - space for entertaining or privacy! This 3 bedroom, 2 full baths home features a large living room open to the dining room. The efficient kitchen has an island and a pantry closet for storage. Relax on the large covered patio with its expanded space for more seating or grilling. Call today to see this great family home.

17. 2022-01-31
    soldstatus $265,000

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Beautiful ranch style home on .85 ac - space for entertaining or privacy! This 3 bedroom, 2 full baths home features a large living room open to the dining room. The efficient kitchen has an island and a pantry closet for storage. Relax on the large covered patio with its expanded space for more seating or grilling. Call today to see this great family home.

18. 2021-12-13
    historical Active Contingent 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Beautiful ranch style home on .85 ac - space for entertaining or privacy! This 3 bedroom, 2 full baths home features a large living room open to the dining room. The efficient kitchen has an island and a pantry closet for storage. Relax on the large covered patio with its expanded space for more seating or grilling. Call today to see this great family home.

19. 2021-11-12
    price $275,000 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Beautiful ranch style home on .85 ac - space for entertaining or privacy! This 3 bedroom, 2 full baths home features a large living room open to the dining room. The efficient kitchen has an island and a pantry closet for storage. Relax on the large covered patio with its expanded space for more seating or grilling. Call today to see this great family home.

20. 2021-09-17
    price $285,000 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Beautiful ranch style home on .85 ac - space for entertaining or privacy! This 3 bedroom, 2 full baths home features a large living room open to the dining room. The efficient kitchen has an island and a pantry closet for storage. Relax on the large covered patio with its expanded space for more seating or grilling. Call today to see this great family home.

21. 2021-09-13
    status Active 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Beautiful ranch style home on .85 ac - space for entertaining or privacy! This 3 bedroom, 2 full baths home features a large living room open to the dining room. The efficient kitchen has an island and a pantry closet for storage. Relax on the large covered patio with its expanded space for more seating or grilling. Call today to see this great family home.

22. 2021-09-08
    historical Active Contingent 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Beautiful ranch style home on .85 ac - space for entertaining or privacy! This 3 bedroom, 2 full baths home features a large living room open to the dining room. The efficient kitchen has an island and a pantry closet for storage. Relax on the large covered patio with its expanded space for more seating or grilling. Call today to see this great family home.

23. 2021-07-27
    listed $299,000 Active 360-char remark

    Show marketing remark (360 chars)

    Beautiful ranch style home on .85 ac - space for entertaining or privacy! This 3 bedroom, 2 full baths home features a large living room open to the dining room. The efficient kitchen has an island and a pantry closet for storage. Relax on the large covered patio with its expanded space for more seating or grilling. Call today to see this great family home.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,255 · $188/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,255 · $188/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 8 d/yr ≥101°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,766
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,864
• − Property taxes: −$2,255
• − Insurance: −$1,238
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,901
• − Management: −$1,901
• − Depreciation: −$7,200
• Taxable loss: −$4,593
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,102
• After-tax cash flow: $810/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Santa Cruz Valley Unified District (4458)
• NCES district ID: 0407520
• Math proficiency: 12% ▼ -19.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $48,019
• Composite: 16.84/100
• National rank: #9147
• State rank: #184 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Rio Rico

• Score: 63/100
• State rank: #115
• US rank: #15321

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Rico, AZ
• County: Santa Cruz County · 22,118 people
• City population: 22,118
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 22,118
• Household income: $61,519
• Rent vs Own: 14.9% rent · 85.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 407.0

Population outlook (Santa Cruz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 43,796 people
• By 2030: 42,097 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 38,235 · -12.7%
• By 2050: 34,224 · -21.9%
• By 2075: 26,014 · -40.6%
• By 2100: 18,165 · -58.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 86% Two or more races 48% White 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 83%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 30% · Canada
• Languages at home: 21% English-only · Spanish 79%

Political lean MEDSL · Santa Cruz

• 2024 margin: D (+18.6) · D 58.9% · R 40.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 31.3pp · 2024: 18.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.6 2020: D+35.5 2016: D+47.1 2012: D+37.8 2008: D+31.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 72.18%
• Current HPI: 415.2167
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Nogales, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-8.0% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-11 Listed $275,000 MLSSAZ
• 2022-01-31 Sold (Public Records) $265,000 Public Records
• 2022-01-31 Sold (MLS) $265,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-12-13 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2021-11-12 Price Changed $275,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-09-17 Price Changed $285,000 MLSSAZ
• 2021-09-13 Relisted — MLSSAZ
• 2021-09-08 Contingent — MLSSAZ
• 2021-07-27 Listed $299,000 MLSSAZ

Property tax history

+6.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,255 · +5.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.