5207 Sturgeon Ave · Midland, MI 48640

$124,900

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,815 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1968 0.59 ac lot ↓ 12% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.9/30.0
• DSCR +9.9/10.0
• 1% rule +8.3/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

TLC on Sturgeon-handyman special. Priced a little over SEV, home was gutted after a fire and being prepared for re-construction. Beautiful location; large mature oaks surround the half acre yard. Back yard completely fenced. Attached 2 car garage. CASH ONLY or Construction loan-selling as is.

Key facts

• Half acre yard
• Large mature oaks
• 0.59 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE MATURE OAKS
• HALF ACRE YARD
• BACK YARD COMPLETELY FENCED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sits on approximately 0.59 acre; Frontage approximately 120 feet; Road access: city/county paved, year-round; Zoning: Residential; Flood insurance / floodplain unknown

Exterior

• Parking: Attached 2-car garage (20 x 22); Additional parking for 3+ spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Public sanitary sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas available and connected; Cable available; Phone available; Internet DSL and fiber available (Hard line, Spectrum); Water heater: None listed
• Home design: Tri-level residence; Residential property; Built in 1968; Below-grade finished area listed as none (unfinished basement)
• Construction: Basement foundation; Basement present (unfinished, block foundation); Brick and vinyl siding construction
• Exterior features: Brick and vinyl siding; Exterior balcony; Deck; Patio; Porch; Garden area; Fenced yard (owned); Shed and garage outbuildings; Park / greenbelt view; Subdivision with sidewalks; Wooded, treed lot; Deep lot (150+ ft) and large lot (65+ ft)

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances included
• Bedrooms: Main-level bedroom (12 x 14); Main-level bedroom (12 x 10); Main-level bedroom (approx. 10 wide)
• Flooring: Bedroom floors: Other
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms; Main floor full bathroom; Basement bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heat; Supplemental wood heat; Cooling: None listed; Heating system: See remarks / other
• Interior features: 9+ foot ceilings; Cathedral / vaulted ceiling; Skylights; Cable / internet available; DSL available
• Laundry & utility: Basement with interior access and sump pump (unfinished)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $125k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $385 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $125k).
• Cap rate 10.0% vs local median 4.4% in Midland — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 85/100 on livability (#28 in MI, #578 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Midland Public Schools (urban): math 49% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #62 of 540 in MI (top 12%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Woodcrest Elementary School (math 59% / reading 64%, grade B, #188 of 1,397 statewide, top 13%, 586 students, 30% FRL); Hh Dow High School (math 63% / reading 79%, grade B+, #31 of 713 statewide, top 4%, 1,268 students, 21% FRL) — zoned schools at 25% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 110 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 320 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (204 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $864 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $35k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $90k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $124,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1968 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.33% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.21%
• DSCR: 1.59
• GRM: 6.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $277,695
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4905 Sturgeon Creek Pkwy	0.26mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,936 (+7%)	2mo	$260,000	$134	66
4910 Sturgeon Creek Pkwy	0.22mi	3/2.0	2,048 (+13%)	3mo	$288,000	$141	62
5113 Christie Ct	0.41mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,860 (+2%)	11mo	$191,500	$103	59
4911 Sturgeon Creek Pkwy	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,596 (-12%)	7mo	$289,000	$181	58
3819 Haskin Dr	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,576 (-13%)	8mo	$244,000	$155	53
4914 Natalie Ct	0.53mi	3/2.5	1,700 (-6%)	9mo	$298,500	$176	51
2707 Valorie Ln	0.36mi	4/1.5 (+1)	2,048 (+13%)	8mo	$235,000	$115	49
3716 Haskin Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,047 (+13%)	15mo	$300,000	$147	44
5009 Campau Dr	0.64mi	3/2.0	1,958 (+8%)	14mo	$255,000	$130	42
4109 Moorland Dr	0.58mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,896 (+4%)	14mo	$289,900	$153	41
4907 Campau Dr	0.66mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,741 (-4%)	14mo	$280,000	$161	38
5900 Perrine Rd	0.62mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,700 (-6%)	16mo	$260,000	$153	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 3.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.12×
• Total profit: $4,338
• Equity at exit: $18,623

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.02×
• Total profit: $35,607
• Equity at exit: $10,799

Cash invested: $34,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48640

• Home prices YoY: -21.7%
• Active inventory: 110
• Price-to-rent: 6.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,664 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$655
• Tax from tax record: −$223 /mo · $2,674/yr
• Insurance: −$52
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$349
• Net cashflow: $385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,177

Max offer price $124,900

Occupancy floor 72%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $31,225
• Closing costs: $3,747
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-10
   status $124,900 Pending 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $124,900 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $124,900 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   remarks 293-char remark
5. 2026-06-07
   listed $124,900 Active 4 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,674 · $223/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,674 · $223/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,970
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,996
• − Property taxes: −$2,674
• − Insurance: −$624
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,598
• − Management: −$1,598
• − Depreciation: −$3,633
• Taxable income: $2,847
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$683
• After-tax cash flow: $3,935/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2623820
• Math proficiency: 49% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $55,844
• Composite: 48.67/100
• National rank: #2105
• State rank: #62 of 540 in MI

Livability — Midland

• Score: 85/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #578

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, MI
• County: Midland County · 66,531 people
• Metro: Midland, MI
• Population (ZIP): 32,492
• Household income: $80,574
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 83,968 people
• By 2030: 83,368 · -0.7%
• By 2040: 80,713 · -3.9%
• By 2050: 76,698 · -8.7%
• By 2075: 67,617 · -19.5%
• By 2100: 57,529 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 7% Lithuanian 4% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: R (+15.2) · D 41.6% · R 56.8% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -11.6pp toward R · 2008: -3.6pp · 2024: -15.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.2 2020: R+14.6 2016: R+19.4 2012: R+15.5 2008: R+3.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -63.88%
• Current HPI: 230.5702
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Midland, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-12.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-03 Listed $124,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2024-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-06 Sold (Public Records) $142,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $2,674 · +4.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.