4418 S Joyner St · Ayden, NC 28513

$55,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 636 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 43 Days on market

Built 1915 0.27 ac lot Est $46k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investor special on a corner lot in growing Ayden, NC. This 2-bed/1-bath, 636 sqft ranch on 0.27 acres has renovation already underway — demo complete, new framing in place, and drywall hung and mudded throughout. Original hardwood floors and a brick fireplace/chimney add character and value. Just needs finishing — flooring, kitchen, bath, HVAC, and paint. Sold strictly as-is. Cash or hard money only. Corner lot with highway access and new commercial development nearby.

Key facts

• 0.27 acre lot
• Built 1915
• Listed 42 days

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community

Exterior

• Utilities: Water source: see remarks; Sewer: unknown
• Home design: Single-story site-built home; Zoned R8
• Construction: Frame construction with vinyl siding
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Lot approximately 0.27 acres (publicly maintained road access)

Interior

• Bedrooms: Two bedrooms, both on the main level
• Flooring: See remarks for flooring details
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating details available in remarks; No central cooling
• Interior features: Interior condition noted as fixer; Flooring details available in remarks

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $55k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $411 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($937 rent vs $55k).
• Recommended offer: $53k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.3% vs local median 2.8% in Ayden — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#41 in NC, #3,656 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D+, employment D, commute F.
• Pitt County Schools (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #100 of 178 in NC (top 56%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ayden-Grifton High (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #414 of 535 statewide, top 79%, 659 students, 99% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 56% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 1,300 units permitted in Pitt County in 2024 (204 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $380 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pitt County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $15k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 43 days — a 3% lower offer ($53k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1915 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $53,350 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 43 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1915 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.70% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 32.06%
• DSCR: 2.43
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $45,792
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
244 Fourth St	0.58mi	1/1.0 (-1)	626 (-2%)	16mo	$45,000	$72	52
4339 New St	0.37mi	1/1.0 (-1)	568 (-11%)	13mo	$40,000	$70	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 27.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.12×
• Total profit: $17,279
• Equity at exit: $8,201

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.16×
• Total profit: $48,724
• Equity at exit: $4,755

Cash invested: $15,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28513

• Home prices YoY: -8.8%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $937 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$288
• Tax from tax record: −$18 /mo · $213/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$197
• Net cashflow: $411

Break-even live

Break-even rent $417

Max offer price $55,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $13,750
• Closing costs: $1,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $55,000 Active 43 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $55,000 Active 42 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $55,000 Active 41 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $55,000 Active 40 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $55,000 Active 39 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   remarks 474-char remark
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $55,000 Active 36 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $55,000 Active 34 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $55,000 Active 33 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $55,000 Active 32 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $55,000 Active 31 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $55,000 Active 28 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $55,000 Active 27 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $55,000 Active 26 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $55,000 Active 25 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $55,000 Active 24 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $55,000 Active 23 DOM
18. 2026-05-06
    listed $55,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $213 · $18/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $451 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: +$238/yr (+$20/mo · 111.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 49% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,250
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,081
• − Property taxes: −$213
• − Insurance: −$275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$900
• − Management: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$1,600
• Taxable income: $4,281
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,027
• After-tax cash flow: $3,911/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Pitt County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3700012
• Math proficiency: 41% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $40,631
• Composite: 35.67/100
• National rank: #4877
• State rank: #100 of 178 in NC

Livability — Ayden

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #41
• US rank: #3656

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ayden, NC
• Population (ZIP): 9,754

Population outlook (Pitt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 194,585 people
• By 2030: 203,756 · +4.7%
• By 2040: 220,807 · +13.5%
• By 2050: 236,614 · +21.6%
• By 2075: 275,940 · +41.8%
• By 2100: 300,058 · +54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: White 57% Black 29% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 3% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Pitt

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+6.0) · D 52.5% · R 46.5% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.8pp toward R · 2008: 8.8pp · 2024: 6.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+6.0 2020: D+9.4 2016: D+7.4 2012: D+6.7 2008: D+8.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -18.36%
• Current HPI: 190.2552
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-06 Listed $55,000 TMLS

Property tax history

+1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $213 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.