6918 Bowen Ave · Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY 40272

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,236 sqft · SingleFamily · 8 Days on market

Built 1953 8,712 sqft lot Est $206k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.1/30.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nice neighborhood. This property needs some TLC. Much potential for 1st time buyer or investor more expensive homes in neighborhood. 1 year home warranty.HL-5683 CN-Louisville

Key facts

• Fenced in backyard
• Ranch style home
• Storage shed

Tags

• RANCH STYLE HOME
• LARGE PRIMARY BEDROOM
• WALK IN CLOSET
• FENCED IN BACKYARD
• DECK FOR ENTERTAINING
• STORAGE SHED

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Subdivision: TIEDEMANN
• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected; One HVAC unit for heating and one for cooling
• Home design: Single-family ranch home; One story
• Construction: Built in 1953; Vinyl siding with wood frame construction; Shingle roof; Crawl space with concrete block foundation
• Exterior features: Cleared, level lot; Full chain-link fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Nine total rooms; Five closets; Basement: none; First-floor primary bathroom; First-floor full bathroom
• Laundry & utility: First-floor laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $104 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $169k (15.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $169k (15.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.9% vs local median 4.0% in Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance) — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Jefferson County (urban): math 19% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #121 of 165 in KY (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Watson Lane Elementary (math 8% / reading 17%); Robert Frost Sixth-Grade Academy (math 3% / reading 14%); Valley High (math 17% / reading 22%, grade F, #213 of 254 statewide, top 86%, 964 students, 70% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 13% at this address vs 27% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Jefferson County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 218 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,836 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (1,558 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $40k; list at $200k implies a 400% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1953 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $168,764 (15.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1953 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.22%
• DSCR: 1.10
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $206,412
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
14017 Beeston Blvd	0.04mi	3/1.0	1,230 (-0%)	4mo	$170,000	$138	90
7110 Rainbow Dr	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-0%)	4mo	$225,000	$183	84
13900 Beeston Blvd	0.23mi	3/1.0	1,230 (-0%)	7mo	$205,000	$167	78
7011 Betsy Ross Dr	0.39mi	3/2.0	1,230 (-0%)	6mo	$206,000	$167	76
7114 Nathan Hale Way	0.40mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-5%)	3mo	$169,900	$144	67
7309 Rainbow Dr	0.45mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,230 (-0%)	4mo	$177,000	$144	66
13609 Tennis Blvd	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,230 (-0%)	4mo	$195,000	$159	63
7307 Nathan Hale Way	0.55mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,204 (-3%)	1mo	$215,000	$179	60
13511 Greystone Ave	0.57mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-5%)	4mo	$195,000	$166	58
13422 Hopedale Way	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,176 (-5%)	2mo	$155,000	$132	56
13501 Horncastle Way	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,165 (-6%)	3mo	$210,000	$180	51
13507 Tennis Blvd	0.68mi	3/1.0	1,134 (-8%)	1mo	$190,000	$168	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.07% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-27,430
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: -6.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.61×
• Total profit: $-21,970
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40272

• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 218
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,688 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$98 /mo · $1,177/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$354
• Net cashflow: $104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,557

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 89%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $217	-5% $160	+0% $104	+5% $47	+10% $-10
Rent	-10% $-30	-5% $37	+0% $104	+5% $170	+10% $237
Rate	-1.0pp $204	-0.5pp $154	base $104	+0.5pp $52	+1.0pp $-1

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6902 Betsy Ross Dr Louisville, KY	4.0	1.0	1230	$1,700	$1.38	16d	1	0.35mi
13217 Forge Cir Louisville, KY	3.0	1.5	1092	$1,495	$1.37	3d	1	0.96mi
7019 James Madison Way Louisville, KY	3.0	2.0	1374	$1,750	$1.27	3d	1	1.01mi

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-05-20
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-18
   price $199,900
3. 2026-05-15
   status Active
4. 2026-03-23
   status Pending
5. 2026-03-23
   price $210,000
6. 2026-03-21
   listed $209,000 Active
7. 2025-08-22
   price $145,000
8. 2002-08-29
   soldstatus $40,000 175-char remark

   Show marketing remark (175 chars)

   Nice neighborhood. This property needs some TLC. Much potential for 1st time buyer or investor more expensive homes in neighborhood. 1 year home warranty.HL-5683 CN-Louisville

9. 2002-07-19
   listed $59,900 175-char remark

   Show marketing remark (175 chars)

   Nice neighborhood. This property needs some TLC. Much potential for 1st time buyer or investor more expensive homes in neighborhood. 1 year home warranty.HL-5683 CN-Louisville

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,177 · $98/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,719 · $143/mo
• Expected delta: +$542/yr (+$45/mo · 46.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,252
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$1,177
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,620
• − Management: −$1,620
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$2,178
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$523
• After-tax cash flow: $1,765/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County
• NCES district ID: 2102990
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $47,885
• Composite: 23.45/100
• National rank: #7884
• State rank: #121 of 165 in KY

Livability — Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance)

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Louisville/Jefferson County metro government (balance), KY
• County: Jefferson County · 790,184 people
• City population: 419,741
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• Population (ZIP): 38,289
• Household income: $69,940
• Rent vs Own: 23.9% rent · 76.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 702.0

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 823,112 people
• By 2030: 849,343 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 895,696 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 933,630 · +13.4%
• By 2075: 1,028,262 · +24.9%
• By 2100: 1,072,675 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (77%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 77% Black 9% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 7%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: D (+16.6) · D 57.4% · R 40.9% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +4.5pp toward D · 2008: 12.0pp · 2024: 16.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+16.6 2020: D+20.1 2016: D+13.3 2012: D+11.1 2008: D+12.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -262.10%
• Current HPI: 247.2954
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.07%
• Metro: Louisville/Jefferson County, KY-IN
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+233.7% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-20 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $199,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-05-15 Relisted — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-23 Pending — Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $210,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2026-03-21 Listed $209,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $145,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2002-08-29 Sold (MLS) $40,000 Metro Search MLS
• 2002-07-19 Listed $59,900 Metro Search MLS

Property tax history

+1.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,177 · -2.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.