406 S Cockrell St · Alpine, TX 79830

$120,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,477 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 146 Days on market

Built 1920 7,840 sqft lot $81/sqft · 32% below area Est $176k · 32% under ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Charming 1920 home on a spacious corner lot in Alpine. This 1 bedroom, 1 bath home offers 1,477 sq ft and is filled with original character and vintage charm. Features include a covered front porch, private water well, two storage buildings, and a unique outdoor fish tank/fountain. The corner lot provides plenty of room to expand, garden, or create outdoor living space. Great opportunity to restore, update, or personalize a historic home with great potential in a desirable location.

Key facts

• 7,840 sq ft lot
• Built 1920
• Listed 145 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-80 ($-961/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $106k (11.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $108k (10.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $106k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#73 in TX, #2,631 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities D+, commute F, employment F.
• Alpine ISD (town): math 43% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #235 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Alpine El (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #2,268 of 4,322 statewide, top 55%, 377 students, 47% FRL); Alpine Middle (math 38% / reading 55%, grade D+, #443 of 1,662 statewide, top 28%, 269 students, 58% FRL); Alpine H S (math 77% / reading 62%, grade B, #119 of 1,632 statewide, top 9%, 308 students, 54% FRL).
• Market conditions: 167 active listings in the ZIP; 7 units permitted in Brewster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brewster County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 146 days — a 12% lower offer ($106k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.5% of price; built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $105,600 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 146 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.86%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $176,098
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: -31.86%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -21.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.27×
• Total profit: $-24,468
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.18×
• Total profit: $-27,557
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79830

• Home prices YoY: -32.6%
• Active inventory: 167
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,076 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax from tax record: −$251 /mo · $3,009/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$226
• Net cashflow: $-80

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,177

Max offer price $105,852

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-12	-5% $-46	+0% $-80	+5% $-114	+10% $-148
Rent	-10% $-165	-5% $-123	+0% $-80	+5% $-38	+10% $5
Rate	-1.0pp $-20	-0.5pp $-50	base $-80	+0.5pp $-111	+1.0pp $-143

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 25 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 146 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 143 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 142 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   pricedays on market $120,000 Active 141 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $121,500 Active 140 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $121,500 Active 138 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $121,500 Active 137 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $121,500 Active 135 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $121,500 Active 134 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $121,500 Active 133 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $121,500 Active 132 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $121,500 Active 128 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $121,500 Active 127 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $121,500 Active 126 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $121,500 Active 125 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $121,500 Active 124 DOM
17. 2026-05-12
    price $122,500 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    Charming 1920 home on a spacious corner lot in Alpine. This 1 bedroom, 1 bath home offers 1,477 sq ft and is filled with original character and vintage charm. Features include a covered front porch, private water well, two storage buildings, and a unique outdoor fish tank/fountain. The corner lot provides plenty of room to expand, garden, or create outdoor living space. Great opportunity to restore, update, or personalize a historic home with great potential in a desirable location.

18. 2026-04-29
    price $123,500 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    Charming 1920 home on a spacious corner lot in Alpine. This 1 bedroom, 1 bath home offers 1,477 sq ft and is filled with original character and vintage charm. Features include a covered front porch, private water well, two storage buildings, and a unique outdoor fish tank/fountain. The corner lot provides plenty of room to expand, garden, or create outdoor living space. Great opportunity to restore, update, or personalize a historic home with great potential in a desirable location.

19. 2026-03-09
    price $129,500 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    Charming 1920 home on a spacious corner lot in Alpine. This 1 bedroom, 1 bath home offers 1,477 sq ft and is filled with original character and vintage charm. Features include a covered front porch, private water well, two storage buildings, and a unique outdoor fish tank/fountain. The corner lot provides plenty of room to expand, garden, or create outdoor living space. Great opportunity to restore, update, or personalize a historic home with great potential in a desirable location.

20. 2026-01-27
    price $136,500 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    Charming 1920 home on a spacious corner lot in Alpine. This 1 bedroom, 1 bath home offers 1,477 sq ft and is filled with original character and vintage charm. Features include a covered front porch, private water well, two storage buildings, and a unique outdoor fish tank/fountain. The corner lot provides plenty of room to expand, garden, or create outdoor living space. Great opportunity to restore, update, or personalize a historic home with great potential in a desirable location.

21. 2026-01-27
    price $135,000 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    Charming 1920 home on a spacious corner lot in Alpine. This 1 bedroom, 1 bath home offers 1,477 sq ft and is filled with original character and vintage charm. Features include a covered front porch, private water well, two storage buildings, and a unique outdoor fish tank/fountain. The corner lot provides plenty of room to expand, garden, or create outdoor living space. Great opportunity to restore, update, or personalize a historic home with great potential in a desirable location.

22. 2026-01-27
    listed $130,000 Active 487-char remark

    Show marketing remark (487 chars)

    Charming 1920 home on a spacious corner lot in Alpine. This 1 bedroom, 1 bath home offers 1,477 sq ft and is filled with original character and vintage charm. Features include a covered front porch, private water well, two storage buildings, and a unique outdoor fish tank/fountain. The corner lot provides plenty of room to expand, garden, or create outdoor living space. Great opportunity to restore, update, or personalize a historic home with great potential in a desirable location.

23. 2007-11-22
    soldstatus
24. 2002-01-15
    soldstatus
25. 2001-12-10
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,009 · $251/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,009 · $251/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 10/10 Extreme
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 6 d/yr ≥93°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,911
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$3,009
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,033
• − Management: −$1,033
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable loss: −$2,977
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$714
• After-tax cash flow: $-247/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Alpine ISD
• NCES district ID: 4807950
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $39,184
• Composite: 40.06/100
• National rank: #3814
• State rank: #235 of 826 in TX

Livability — Alpine

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #73
• US rank: #2631

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Alpine, TX
• County: Brewster County · 7,853 people
• City population: 7,853
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 7,853
• Household income: $66,546
• Rent vs Own: 32.6% rent · 67.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 229.0

Population outlook (Brewster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,850 people
• By 2030: 8,577 · -3.1%
• By 2040: 7,903 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 7,338 · -17.1%
• By 2075: 5,950 · -32.8%
• By 2100: 4,678 · -47.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (52%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 46% Two or more races 15% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 37%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 5% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 29% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brewster

• 2024 margin: R (+12.6) · D 43.0% · R 55.6% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.5pp toward R · 2008: 3.0pp · 2024: -12.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+12.6 2020: R+4.2 2016: R+4.8 2012: R+5.4 2008: D+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.21%
• Current HPI: 178.4899
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-5.8% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Price Changed $122,500 ODMLS
• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $123,500 ODMLS
• 2026-03-09 Price Changed $129,500 ODMLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $136,500 ODMLS
• 2026-01-27 Price Changed $135,000 ODMLS
• 2026-01-27 Listed $130,000 ODMLS
• 2007-11-22 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2002-01-15 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2001-12-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,009 · +10.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.