6225 Cavan Dr #3 · Citrus Heights, CA 95621

$177,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 840 sqft · Condo public records · 6 Days on market

Built 1971 $335/mo HOA · 19% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.1/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Greenback Estates, where comfort, convenience, and affordability come together. This well-maintained 2-bedroom, 1-bathroom condominium offers 840 square feet of functional living space designed for easy, low-maintenance living. The main level features a spacious living and dining area that flows seamlessly into the kitchen, creating an inviting setting for everyday living, relaxing, or entertaining guests. Upstairs, you'll find two generously sized bedrooms and a full bathroom, including a flexible second bedroom ideal for guests, a home office, workout room, or hobby space. The HOA delivers exceptional value maintaining the community pool, beautifully maintained grounds and comm

Key facts

• Community pool
• $335 HOA
• Garage

Tags

• COMMUNITY POOL
• BEAUTIFULLY MAINTAINED GROUNDS
• MOVE-IN-READY PROPERTY
• WELL-ESTABLISHED COMMUNITY

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Mandatory homeowners association; Monthly HOA fee (includes exterior maintenance and pool); Community amenities include pool and coin laundry; see remarks for additional details

Exterior

• Parking: Attached rear-facing 1-car garage; Sidewalk/curb/gutter along driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas connected; Cable available; Electric service (other); Irrigation supplied by public district
• Home design: Attached condominium; 2-story layout; Built in 1971; Composition roof
• Construction: Attached construction
• Exterior features: Low-maintenance landscaping with front landscaping and miscellaneous plantings; Automatic sprinkler system (front); Built-in private pool within a fenced common facility

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas cooktop; Built-in gas oven; Dishwasher; Disposal; Microwave; Breakfast area; Pantry closet; Tile countertops; Dining bar / dining-family combo
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms; Primary bedroom with walk-in closet
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tile and tub/shower combo
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Front porch; Pets allowed — dogs and cats permitted; See remarks for laundry details
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry (see remarks)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath condo listed at $178k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-7 ($-81/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $176k (0.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (0.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $176k (0.7% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 3.4% in Citrus Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#614 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• San Juan Unified (suburban): math 40% / reading 62% proficiency, ranked #138 of 517 in CA (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Orangevale Open K-8 (572 students, 22% FRL); Sylvan Middle (647 students, 71% FRL); El Camino Fundamental High (math 34% / reading 62%, grade D, #378 of 1,170 statewide, top 32%, 1,246 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 48% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.9%/yr); 219 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 6,825 units permitted in Sacramento County in 2024 (1,752 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sacramento County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 6 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $56k; list at $178k implies a 217% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $176,303 (0.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1971 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.00% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.25%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.16%
• DSCR: 0.99
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.9% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-30,999
• Equity at exit: $26,466

10-year hold

• IRR: -12.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-34,784
• Equity at exit: $15,347

Cash invested: $49,700 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95621

• Rents YoY: 1.9%
• Active inventory: 219
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,775 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$931
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $830/yr
• Insurance: −$74
• HOA: −$335
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,783

Max offer price $176,303

Occupancy floor 95%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $94	-5% $43	+0% $-7	+5% $-57	+10% $-107
Rent	-10% $-147	-5% $-77	+0% $-7	+5% $63	+10% $133
Rate	-1.0pp $83	-0.5pp $38	base $-7	+0.5pp $-53	+1.0pp $-100

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $44,375
• Closing costs: $5,325
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
6245 Longford Dr #3 Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,395	$1.66	25d	1	0.09mi
6228 Longford Dr #3 Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,595	$1.90	19d	1	0.12mi
6533 Greenback Ln #3 Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	840	$1,800	$2.14	25d	1	0.24mi
6544 Auburn Blvd Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	2.0	800	$1,850	$2.31	25d	1	0.27mi
6011 Shadow Ln Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	779	$2,348	$3.01	3d	15	0.41mi
6546 Auburn Blvd Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	624	$1,853	$2.97	5d	10	0.44mi
5844 Garden Park Ct Unit RV 5853-D Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$1,525	$1.67	18d	1	0.68mi
5844 Garden Park Ct Unit RV 5877-B Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	915	$1,575	$1.72	18d	1	0.68mi
5979 Devecchi Ave Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	775	$1,871	$2.41	3d	15	0.75mi
7024 San Altos Cir Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	2.0	1120	$2,800	$2.50	45d	1	0.83mi
5718 Manzanita Ave Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	980	$2,000	$2.04	45d	1	0.83mi
6430 Verner Ave Sacramento, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	705	$2,295	$3.25	25d	1	0.93mi
6172 Peoria Dr Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	917	$1,695	$1.85	5d	1	0.98mi
6225 Wildomar Way Carmichael, CA	3.0	1.0	1040	$3,000	$2.88	45d	1	1.00mi
6111 Shupe Dr Unit 53 Citrus Heights, CA	1.0	1.0	667	$1,600	$2.40	23d	1	1.09mi
6111 Shupe Dr Unit 15 Citrus Heights, CA	1.0	1.0	667	$1,575	$2.36	19d	1	1.09mi
6111 Shupe Dr Unit 44 Citrus Heights, CA	1.0	1.0	667	$1,600	$2.40	45d	1	1.09mi
5922 Petaluma Ct Sacramento, CA	2.0	2.0	1048	$2,075	$1.98	3d	1	1.09mi
5840 Garfield Ave Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	850	$1,545	$1.82	3d	2	1.18mi
5587 Keoncrest Cir Unit 2 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.5	900	$2,000	$2.22	3d	1	1.21mi
6004 Rutland Dr Unit 128 Carmichael, CA	2.0	1.0	900	$1,495	$1.66	5d	1	1.23mi
5501 Keoncrest Cir Unit 1 Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	750	$1,300	$1.73	3d	1	1.24mi
5417 Olympic Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	920	$1,795	$1.95	16d	1	1.24mi
5402 Mona Way Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	863	$1,750	$2.03	23d	1	1.26mi
5308 Winfield Way #2 Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	1105	$2,100	$1.90	45d	1	1.39mi
5300 Winfield Way #2 Sacramento, CA	3.0	1.5	1105	$2,100	$1.90	25d	1	1.41mi
7323 Chivalry Way Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	2.0	1121	$2,095	$1.87	12d	1	1.42mi
6635 Sylvan Rd Citrus Heights, CA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	865	$2,120	$2.45	9d	8	1.43mi
7061 Madison Ave Fair Oaks, CA	2.0	2.0	940	$1,750	$1.86	14d	2	1.43mi
5233 Columbine Way Carmichael, CA	3.0	2.0	1008	$2,375	$2.36	5d	1	1.46mi
7311 Huntington Square Ln Citrus Heights, CA	2.0	1.0	975	$1,955	$2.01	3d	5	1.46mi
5244 Hackberry Ln Sacramento, CA	2.0	1.0	712	$1,712	$2.41	45d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $335 · $4,020/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $177,500 Active 6 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $177,500 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $177,500 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   remarks 699-char remark
5. 2026-06-16
   listed $177,500 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $830 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,349 · $112/mo
• Expected delta: +$519/yr (+$43/mo · 62.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 36 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,298
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,943
• − Property taxes: −$830
• − Insurance: −$888
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,704
• − Management: −$1,704
• − HOA: −$4,020
• − Depreciation: −$5,164
• Taxable loss: −$2,953
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$709
• After-tax cash flow: $627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: San Juan Unified
• NCES district ID: 0634620
• Math proficiency: 40% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 62% ▲ 16.00%
• Median HH income: $55,655
• Composite: 44.07/100
• National rank: #2878
• State rank: #138 of 517 in CA

Livability — Citrus Heights

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #614
• US rank: #19580

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Citrus Heights, CA
• County: Sacramento County · 1,539,646 people
• City population: 89,370
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• Population (ZIP): 42,442
• Household income: $80,901
• Rent vs Own: 31.9% rent · 68.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 1854.0

Population outlook (Sacramento County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,660,763 people
• By 2030: 1,732,990 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 1,855,755 · +11.7%
• By 2050: 1,941,335 · +16.9%
• By 2075: 2,046,162 · +23.2%
• By 2100: 1,961,444 · +18.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 11% Asian 6% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 16%
• Common ancestry: Subsaharan African 3% Lithuanian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 10% Russian/Polish/Slavic 6% Other Indo-European 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Sacramento

• 2024 margin: D (+19.7) · D 58.1% · R 38.4% · Other 3.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.7pp no change · 2008: 19.0pp · 2024: 19.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.7 2020: D+25.3 2016: D+23.7 2012: D+16.3 2008: D+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -408.14%
• Current HPI: 351.9333
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.90%
• Metro: Sacramento-Roseville-Folsom, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+67.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2012-07-27 Sold (Public Records) $56,000 Public Records
• 1981-07-02 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records
• 1981-06-09 Sold (Public Records) $8,000 Public Records
• 1979-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $33,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $830 · +0.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.