2 N/c Aspen Run · East Moriches, NY 11940

$1,550,500

4 bd · 4.5 ba · 3,293 sqft · SingleFamily · 31 Days on market

Built 2027 Excellent condition 1.31 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.5/10.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Aspen Run, an exclusive collection of four luxury residences privately positioned in the heart of East Moriches. Thoughtfully designed to blend modern living with the natural beauty of Long Island’s South Shore, Aspen Run offers convenient access to local shopping, dining, marinas, beaches, and major travel routes while maintaining a quiet, estate-like setting. The Rosegrove model offers over 3,200 square feet of curated living space, blending timeless architecture with modern functionality. Designed for both everyday comfort and elevated entertaining, this residence features 4 spacious bedrooms and 4.5 bathrooms, including a generously sized first-floor primary suite desig

Key facts

• Over 1.3 acres
• 1.31 acre lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• FIRST-FLOOR PRIMARY SUITE
• PRIVATE UPSTAIRS ENSUITE
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• CULTURED STONE FIREPLACE
• PRIVATE SECOND-FLOOR STUDY
• OVER 1.3 ACRES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Garage; 2-car garage
• Utilities: Electric service by PSEG; Propane available; Water connected; Septic tank; Cable available; Trash collection (public)
• Home design: Single-family residence; Living area reported from plans
• Construction: Frame construction; Concrete perimeter foundation; Full, unfinished basement; Full unfinished attic
• Exterior features: Covered porch

Interior

• Kitchen: ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Quartz/Quartzite counters
• Bedrooms: Master downstairs
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile
• Bathrooms: 4 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Propane heating; ENERGY STAR qualified equipment
• Interior features: First-floor full bathroom; Eat-in kitchen; ENERGY STAR qualified doors; His-and-hers closets; Open floor plan; Pantry; Master suite on the main level; Quartz/Quartzite counters
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Laundry in multiple locations

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/4.5-bath single-family listed at $1.55M. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $5k ($61k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($20k rent vs $1.55M).
• Recommended offer: $1.50M (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 2.2% in East Moriches — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#905 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• East Moriches Union Free School District (suburban): math 69% / reading 75% proficiency, ranked #97 of 590 in NY (top 16%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 7% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: East Moriches Elementary School (math 77% / reading 77%, grade A, #244 of 2,108 statewide, top 13%, 338 students, 22% FRL); East Moriches School (math 67% / reading 72%, grade A, #89 of 729 statewide, top 12%, 309 students, 25% FRL) — zoned schools average 24% FRL vs 7% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $11k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $47k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $434k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($1.50M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,503,985 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.23%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.05%
• DSCR: 1.63
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $869,352
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
511 Montauk Hwy	0.17mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,799 (-15%)	4mo	$575,000	$205	52
31 Mill Pond Ln	0.44mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,900 (-12%)	22mo	$765,000	$264	28
21 Watchogue Ave	0.56mi	5/2.5 (+1)	2,800 (-15%)	22mo	$965,000	$345	17

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $72,911
• Equity at exit: $231,185

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.11×
• Total profit: $481,732
• Equity at exit: $134,059

Cash invested: $434,140 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11940

• Home prices YoY: -23.0%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $20,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$8,131
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$1,938 /mo · $23,258/yr
• Insurance: −$646
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,200
• Net cashflow: $5,085

Break-even live

Break-even rent $13,563

Max offer price $1,550,500

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $387,625
• Closing costs: $46,515
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8 Tuthill Point Rd East Moriches, NY	5.0	3.0	3000	$20,000	$6.67	43d	1	1.18mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $1,550,500 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $1,550,500 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $1,550,500 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $1,550,500 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $1,550,500 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $1,550,500 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $1,550,500 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $1,550,500 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $1,550,500 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $1,550,500 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $1,550,500 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $1,550,500 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $1,550,500 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-18
    listed $1,550,500 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $240,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$86,852
• − Property taxes: −$23,258
• − Insurance: −$7,752
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$19,200
• − Management: −$19,200
• − Depreciation: −$45,105
• Taxable income: $38,632
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$9,272
• After-tax cash flow: $51,746/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 11 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This luxury home in Aspen Run is in excellent condition with modern finishes and a well-maintained exterior. It offers a high ROI with minimal needed improvements.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental.
• Both Smart home integration — Improves convenience and adds modern amenities for both buyers and renters.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value for both resale and rental. ↑
• Both Smart home integration — Improves convenience and adds modern amenities for both buyers and renters. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: East Moriches Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3609870
• Math proficiency: 69% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 75% ▲ 17.00%
• Median HH income: $87,937
• Composite: 64.63/100
• National rank: #528
• State rank: #97 of 590 in NY

Livability — East Moriches

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #905
• US rank: #17704

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: East Moriches, NY
• City population: 5,508
• Population (ZIP): 5,508

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 5% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Scotch-Irish 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -92.56%
• Current HPI: 309.2919
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $1,550,500 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid