398 Riley Ave NE · Palm Bay, FL 32907

$240,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 37 Days on market

Built 2005

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• DSCR +2.6/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great location with easy access to I95, Palm Bay Hospital, dining, shopping, and major employers. Large lot with fenced rear yard with ample room for Boat or RV, or shed! Large French doors open to screened patio to lush back yard. Gorgeous luxury vinyl plank flooring in two bedrooms, tile in third bedroom, and wood veneer flooring throughout. AC and hot water heater relatively new with FP& amp; L bill of less than $100/month! New microwave and nice oak kitchen cabinets. New electrical panel. Brand new roof with peel-n-stick!!! Garage door opener with two remotes. Recent appraisal, 4-point inspection, and wind mitigation survey means low insurance costs. Currently rented until June 2

Key facts

• Screened patio
• Brand new roof
• Easy access to i95

Tags

• EASY ACCESS TO I95
• FENCED REAR YARD
• SCREENED PATIO
• LUXURY VINYL PLANK FLOORING
• NEW ELECTRICAL PANEL
• BRAND NEW ROOF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $240k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-179 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $208k (13.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (23.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#366 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, employment D+, amenities F.
• Brevard (suburban): math 53% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #19 of 73 in FL (top 26%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 739 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 4,602 units permitted in Brevard County in 2024 (702 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Brevard County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 37 days — a 3% lower offer ($233k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $240k implies a 140% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 6→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,242 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 37 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.40%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.20%
• DSCR: 0.86
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.93% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.20×
• Total profit: $-54,034
• Equity at exit: $35,785

10-year hold

• IRR: -25.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-76,474
• Equity at exit: $20,751

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32907

• Home prices YoY: -10.1%
• Rents YoY: 0.9%
• Active inventory: 739
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,842 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax from tax record: −$276 /mo · $3,310/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-179

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,069

Max offer price $208,390

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
453 Ralwood Ln NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1160	$1,900	$1.64	23d	1	0.29mi
1391 Nolan St NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1176	$1,830	$1.56	19d	1	0.36mi
1555 Omega St NE Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1176	$1,795	$1.53	23d	1	0.40mi
194 Holiday Park Blvd NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1404	$1,695	$1.21	23d	1	0.45mi
1706 Apache St NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1395	$1,800	$1.29	23d	1	0.46mi
331 Holiday Park Blvd NE Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	920	$1,350	$1.47	23d	1	0.86mi
1625 Par St NE Unit 1205 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,300	$1.90	23d	1	0.94mi
1625 Par St NE Unit 1203 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,075	$1.72	23d	1	0.94mi
1635 Par St NE Unit 2103 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1025	$2,100	$2.05	23d	1	0.95mi
1635 Par St NE Unit 2203 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,300	$1.90	23d	1	0.95mi
2181 Agora Cir SE Unit 206 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	1.0	850	$1,395	$1.64	23d	1	0.96mi
1605 Par St NE Unit 3204 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,000	$1.66	23d	1	0.97mi
1605 Par St NE Unit 3202 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,300	$1.90	23d	1	0.97mi
1605 Par St NE Unit 3102 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1025	$2,100	$2.05	23d	1	0.97mi
1687 Avery Rd NE Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	876	$1,800	$2.05	23d	1	0.98mi
1625 Par St NE Unit 1104 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1025	$2,100	$2.05	23d	1	1.00mi
1625 Par St NE Unit 1107 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1025	$1,875	$1.83	23d	1	1.00mi
1625 Par St NE Unit 1206 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,050	$1.70	23d	1	1.00mi
1625 Par St NE Unit 1207 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1208	$2,025	$1.68	23d	1	1.00mi
2041 Agora Cir SE Unit 2041-3 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	1.5	1025	$1,450	$1.41	19d	1	1.09mi
1656 Sunny Brook Ln NE Unit L102 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	914	$1,690	$1.85	21d	1	1.11mi
1907 Cleveland St NE Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	1320	$1,985	$1.50	23d	1	1.14mi
205 Valor Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	901	$1,937	$2.15	14d	17	1.16mi
1984 Agora Cir SE #104 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	784	$1,440	$1.84	14d	1	1.16mi
1870 Agora Cir SE #202 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	1.0	875	$1,375	$1.57	23d	1	1.18mi
1608 Sunny Brook Ln Palm Bay, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1040	$1,412	$1.36	23d	6	1.19mi
1884 Agora Cir SE Unit 203 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	1.0	875	$1,375	$1.57	23d	1	1.22mi
3513 Tree Ridge Ln NE Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.5	1170	$2,000	$1.71	23d	1	1.26mi
1625 Sunny Brook Ln NE Unit G103 Palm Bay, FL	3.0	2.0	914	$1,700	$1.86	23d	1	1.28mi
1641 Sunny Brook Ln NE Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	862	$1,500	$1.74	14d	3	1.28mi
1649 Sunny Brook Ln NE Palm Bay, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	760	$1,950	$2.57	14d	2	1.28mi
1601 Sunny Brook Ln NE Unit D101 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	846	$1,550	$1.83	23d	1	1.28mi
3814 Tree Ridge Ln NE Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.5	1170	$1,500	$1.28	23d	1	1.30mi
1895 Convair St SE Unit 2202 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	1.0	950	$1,300	$1.37	23d	1	1.34mi
2100 Forest Knoll Dr NE #202 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1069	$1,600	$1.50	14d	1	1.35mi
84 San Filippo Dr SE Palm Bay, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1052	$1,702	$1.62	14d	30	1.35mi
440 Mercury Ave SE Apt E Palm Bay, FL	2.0	1.0	900	$1,250	$1.39	21d	1	1.36mi
2130 Forest Knoll Dr NE #202 Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1069	$1,450	$1.36	23d	1	1.37mi
1123 Tree Ridge Ln NE Palm Bay, FL	2.0	1.0	870	$1,350	$1.55	23d	1	1.39mi
2235 Macedo Rd NE Palm Bay, FL	2.0	2.0	1260	$1,500	$1.19	23d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 37 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 36 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 35 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 34 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $240,000 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $240,000 Active 29 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $240,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $240,000 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 22 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-12
    listed $240,000 Active
15. 2025-11-13
    soldstatus $100,000
16. 2003-07-03
    soldstatus $84,000
17. 1996-07-05
    soldstatus $64,000
18. 1992-04-01
    soldstatus $53,200
19. 1989-01-01
    soldstatus $47,900
20. 1980-08-01
    soldstatus $49,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,310 · $276/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,310 · $276/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 6 d/yr ≥106°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,109
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,310
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,769
• − Management: −$1,769
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$6,364
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,527
• After-tax cash flow: $-620/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Brevard
• NCES district ID: 1200150
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $49,426
• Composite: 46.86/100
• National rank: #2370
• State rank: #19 of 73 in FL

Livability — Palm Bay

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #366
• US rank: #6458

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Palm Bay, FL
• County: Brevard County · 602,871 people
• City population: 132,211
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,080
• Household income: $75,311
• Rent vs Own: 13.3% rent · 86.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 702.0

Population outlook (Brevard County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 623,254 people
• By 2030: 648,420 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 690,009 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 715,669 · +14.8%
• By 2075: 775,744 · +24.5%
• By 2100: 776,687 · +24.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 21% Black 15% Two or more races 14% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 9% Cuban 2% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2% Hispanic 2%
• Foreign-born: 16% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 77% English-only · Spanish 17% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Brevard

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.8) · D 39.1% · R 59.9% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.4pp · 2024: -20.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.8 2020: R+16.4 2016: R+19.8 2012: R+12.7 2008: R+10.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -34.79%
• Current HPI: 308.9719
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.93%
• Metro: Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+381.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-12 Listed $240,000 FSBO.com
• 2025-11-13 Sold (Public Records) $100,000 Public Records
• 2003-07-03 Sold (Public Records) $84,000 Public Records
• 1996-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $64,000 Public Records
• 1992-04-01 Sold (Public Records) $53,200 Public Records
• 1989-01-01 Sold (Public Records) $47,900 Public Records
• 1980-08-01 Sold (Public Records) $49,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+19.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,310 · -7.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.